Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Thrugelmir

Takedap wrote: »

Boris really doesn't care what happens so long as it has someone else's fingerprints on it.

Wouldn't have put himself forward for PM if that were the case.

lvader

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What benefit is there to the EU granting yet another extension. The EU has domestic policy it needs to move on. Not least budget setting. The UK being in or out has a material bearing. Likewise if the UK meets the "divorce bill".

There has been some benefit, it's difficult and time consuming to move business away from London. That's seems to have slowed down but they benefit from allowing business to bed in those changes. Plus if the EU economy goes further south after a no deal Brexit there will be some political fallout. Not all 27 countries will be thinking exactly the same when deciding.

phillw

lvader wrote: »

There has been some benefit, it's difficult and time consuming to move business away from London. That's seems to have slowed down but they benefit from allowing business to bed in those changes. Plus if the EU economy goes further south after a no deal Brexit there will be some political fallout. Not all 27 countries will be thinking exactly the same when deciding.

In retrospect article 50 should be a process that starts on a specific date and has the date when negotiations need to end followed by a year before they come into effect.

Negotiations would only be able to then be opened after they closed, by a new government. That way there would be time for democracy to play it's part. Rather than an assumed dictatorship.

I'm sure they'll learn from this.

movilogo

Not all 27 countries will be thinking exactly the same when deciding

The decisions are made by Germany only. France and Ireland (in Brexit only) have some influence but rest of EU countries do not matter in reality.

Moe_The_Bartender

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What benefit is there to the EU granting yet another extension.

A billion euros a month. That said, I really hope they say enough is enough.

Tromking

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

A billion euros a month. That said, I really hope they say enough is enough.

Another bat that Boris will use to hit the hapless Corbyn and McDonnell around the head with during the GE campaign.
Not that it matters too much, Labour are going to get creamed.

Thrugelmir

lvader wrote: »

Plus if the EU economy goes further south after a no deal Brexit there will be some political fallout.

Clear signs of a European slowdown, particularly in German, Brexit or not. Italy has been struggling for 2 decades. The slowdown in the UK economy isn't entirely unexpected either.

Conina

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Clear signs of a European slowdown, particularly in German, Brexit or not. Italy has been struggling for 2 decades. The slowdown in the UK economy isn't entirely unexpected either.

Of course it's not - and as others here are quick to remind us, we are part of the EU so sharing their fate to at least some degree & that's why so many voted to leave.

Tammykitty

Herzlos wrote: »

Of course it needs to be frictionless, that's the part about not violating the GFA. No-one cares if there's a border (there already is a border) as long as it doesn't affect anyones daily lives.


Unfortunately frictionless means no stops at all - random or otherwise, which means an open uncontrolled border, which means regulatory alignment. Regulatory divergence means border friction somewhere. Ideally, we can do that in the Irish sea since we don't need to rely on the DUP now.


Realistically the options are:
Border in the Irish sea - upsets the Unionists
Border in Eire/NI - upsets the Irish & violates the GFA
No border - means regulatory alignment.





We're leaving the EU, the EU therefor has no obligation to care about how a deal affects us, so of course they are going to want a deal that favours and protects them. Why would they do anything else?
We can leave any time we want, we just need to decide on what that's going to look like. We can't keep asking for the cake-and-eat-it Brexit.

There is random checks on the border already.


As there is no joint immigration policy - there is checks reasonably regularly on the Belfast to Dublin airport service.


The common travel area only applies to UK and Irish citizens, there is different visa requirements for citizens of some countries for entering and remaining in the UK and Ireland

phillw

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

A billion euros a month. That said, I really hope they say enough is enough.

And we get ten times that back as a member of the EU, which we will lose if you let BJ win his game of self promotion.

But then I guess it doesn't matter how much money we get, because "foreigners"

Conina wrote: »

we are part of the EU so sharing their fate to at least some degree & that's why so many voted to leave.

Right, Magical thinking. But then it's not unexpected