Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Takedap

Tromking wrote: »

I’m not squabbling.
In response to another poster I made a comment on Eastern European EU migrants and you somewhat muddied the waters by introducing other EU migrants into the conversation. It’s my prediction that in the event of Brexit that part of EU migration that is a drain on the UK finances will reduce greatly and the part that isn’t and pays for the subsidy won’t.
Considering EU workers claim circa £4bn in welfare, then that should be a welcomes boost to the UK’s coffers.

It looks like we're just replacing EU immigration with RoW immigration so where does this "boost" come from?

Tromking

Takedap wrote: »

It looks like we're just replacing EU immigration with RoW immigration so where does this "boost" come from?

There is no automatic right to access in work benefits for RoW migrants.

Sailtheworld

Tromking wrote: »

The EU’s FOM rules dictate that EU citizens cannot be treated any different to home workers. I don’t see why our citizens should lose out because our generous benefits system are a huge draw for EU migrants.
Cameron knew this of course, hence he asked in vain for a ‘brake’ on inward EU migration, he warned that Brexit might result but they still fooked him off anyway.
Hey ho.

You said the benefits system was over-generous and have downgraded that to generous - I did notice you know? A nice subtle re-framing because there's no reason why Brits should get over-generous benefits.

There were plenty of things the Cameron government could've done if they wanted to reduce inward migration. It's not as if it wasn't a stated priority - they had an immigration target for the whole of his tenure. It's easy to take money from people and give it to others but far more difficult to stop giving away 'free' money.

Brexit is a sledgehammer that's cracking a small nut. Not that effectively as it turns out because the EU nationals we're scaring off have been replaced by non-EU nationals who don't seem to scare as easy.

The last few PMs have all paid lip-service to reducing immigration and I wouldn't expect much to change.

StevieJ

Johnson is attempting to manipulate the Remain side of the argument into doing his bidding, i.e. to block a no deal brexit. Here is an interesting article that puts the flesh on the bones of this strategy. I must say this has broadly been my personal view since Boris and his puppetmaster Cummings were elected recently.

The British prime minister’s tough talk is designed to provoke Remainers into blocking Brexit—and give him a villain to blame during an election campaign.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/boris-johnson-doesnt-want-no-deal-brexit-he-wants-to-win-an-election-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-election-cummings/

Crashy_Time

StevieJ wrote: »

Johnson is attempting to manipulate the Remain side of the argument into doing his bidding, i.e. to block a no deal brexit. Here is an interesting article that puts the flesh on the bones of this strategy. I must say this has broadly been my personal view since Boris and his puppetmaster Cummings were elected recently.



https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/boris-johnson-doesnt-want-no-deal-brexit-he-wants-to-win-an-election-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-election-cummings/

He will lose too many votes to the BP for this to be plausible, too many people have had enough of the stalling and undermining of democracy, without Brexit first he won`t be around long IMO.

buglawton

Takedap wrote: »

Food rationing in the UK continued until 9 years after the war finished.

In 1954. And in Germany it ended in 1950. Really, go figure.

edgex

Tromking wrote: »

The EU’s FOM rules dictate that EU citizens cannot be treated any different to home workers. I don’t see why our citizens should lose out because our generous benefits system are a huge draw for EU migrants.
Cameron knew this of course, hence he asked in vain for a ‘brake’ on inward EU migration, he warned that Brexit might result but they still fooked him off anyway.
Hey ho.

That would be the in-work benefits
that are required because so many people are now in a low-wage economy
& the country has done nothing to deal with the two biggest living costs; housing & energy


If our benefits system was such a draw for EU migrants, why isn't all/majority of EU internal migration to the UK, & from all EU countries?
Where are all the Austrians, Germans, French, Italians etc etc?

BikingBud

mayonnaise wrote: »

As a public sector worker, you're probably the biggest beneficiary of EU FOM rules on this forum. I'd suggest you never forget who funds your 'job for life' and generous pension benefits.

So are public sector workers of less import than migrants?

What's wrong with committing your life to improving the standing of society and expecting some payback?

mayonnaise wrote: »

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba

Headline grabbing over simplification!

Have a look at Figure 4.

69% of EAA (NMS) are between the ages of 25-44 these are the workers that come and work and then go home.

Refer back to Figure 2 these are likely to be the HH1 where they are adding as soon as the get over £10K gross income a £15k start on the net fiscal contribution over the other groups.

Also shift the HH4 back to the HH1 line where they were working ie during the period 25-65 and see what their net input is during that period. For £55k joint income they would have been contributing £30k per year. Now they have retired they take out £25k per year. At what stage are they in deficit for through life contributions? 75/85/90?

The lifecycle contribution from migrants is highly positive for three reasons. First, migrants tend to arrive after the completion of their formal education in their home country, thus avoiding the significant education costs associated with natives. Second, as a group of predominantly young adults, the expected retirement costs associated with the later years of life are reduced by the fact that a large proportion tend to leave the UK again before reaching retirement. Finally, because the migrant population is younger, their positive contributions occur immediately, whereas their associated pension and health costs typically lie many years in the future, and therefore have less of an impact in today’s terms.

Higher skill levels amongst migrants are reflected in their higher average wages. Migrants from OMS, the highest-skilled group, earn more per hour on average than the other groups (Fig. 7), while migrants from NMS, the least- skilled migrant group, earn the least per hour. Indeed, NMS workers, who are typically more highly skilled than UK natives, earn more than £3 per hour less, on average. This may be explained by the fact that NMS employees, while relatively well-qualified for the jobs they do, are typically younger and so may have less workplace experience, than equivalent native employees

Or maybe they are being exploited, and as a nation we are scared that we will have to pay more for natives to do that work, even if we could find some interested.

Conina

edgex wrote: »

If our benefits system was such a draw for EU migrants, why isn't all/majority of EU internal migration to the UK, & from all EU countries?
Where are all the Austrians, Germans, French, Italians etc etc?

Why don't you do your own reasoning and find out what is their average wage compared to that of Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Hungary.

Theophile

StevieJ wrote: »

Johnson is attempting to manipulate the Remain side of the argument into doing his bidding, i.e. to block a no deal brexit. Here is an interesting article that puts the flesh on the bones of this strategy. I must say this has broadly been my personal view since Boris and his puppetmaster Cummings were elected recently.



https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/12/boris-johnson-doesnt-want-no-deal-brexit-he-wants-to-win-an-election-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-election-cummings/

Makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised if Prime Minister Cummings is behind these 'leaks' we're all supposed to be concerned about.