Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Herzlos

I may have been at cross purposes, since I was highlighting that 8% of the UK economy isn't the same as 9% of the EU budget.


Assuming Brexit only results in a reduction in growth (i.e. no recession) then you're correct we'll weather it without batting an eyelid - it's essentially non-existent money we're missing.


According to a skim of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit we're looking at potentially losses of about 1-4.5% and a reduced growth of 2-8% for at least 15 years. I'm sure I've seen claims of economic drops up to about 10-15% which would be catastrophic.



The growth won't cause us to collapse, but an economic reduction of 4.5 puts us close to the 2009 recession which was 6% drop.



As in all recessions, there are winners and losers - generally the rich get much richer and the poor get poorer. Take a look at those pushing for Brexit (Farage, Mogg, Johnson et al)- almost all of them in a position to capitalize on it and scoop up cheap assets whilst those voting for it seem to be the ones that'll most lose out. We'll just need to wait and see what happens, and hope it's not as bad as predicted.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

We'll just need to wait and see what happens, and hope it's not as bad as predicted.

Predicted by whom and when? Now that BJ is in charge then worse case predictions could actually have been optimistic.

Herzlos

phillw wrote: »

Predicted by whom and when? Now that BJ is in charge then worse case predictions could actually have been optimistic.

Fair point, we just don't know. He might even make a spectacular success of it entirely by accident.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

Fair point, we just don't know. He might even make a spectacular success of it entirely by accident.

That has been how his entire career has panned out, but he's never actually been given anything important to do. He is completely transparent with his little power games.

adindas

phillw wrote: »

So the talk of proroguing government and branding judges as enemy of the people because they prevented the government from bypassing democratically elected MPs doesn't count? If you want to look the other way because you like the idea of stopping immigrants coming here, then it's entirely up to you.

Is that the feature of fascism ?
Definition of fascism.
"a political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition"

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

The EU will take a hit because protecting the EU is a principal they think is more important than money.

Who are the EU? I suspect that there'll be disquiet if their stance becomes abjectly political.

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

I may have been at cross purposes, since I was highlighting that 8% of the UK economy isn't the same as 9% of the EU budget.

Assuming Brexit only results in a reduction in growth (i.e. no recession) then you're correct we'll weather it without batting an eyelid - it's essentially non-existent money we're missing.


According to a skim of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_effects_of_Brexit we're looking at potentially losses of about 1-4.5% and a reduced growth of 2-8% for at least 15 years. I'm sure I've seen claims of economic drops up to about 10-15% which would be catastrophic.


The growth won't cause us to collapse, but an economic reduction of 4.5 puts us close to the 2009 recession which was 6% drop.


As in all recessions, there are winners and losers - generally the rich get much richer and the poor get poorer. Take a look at those pushing for Brexit (Farage, Mogg, Johnson et al)- almost all of them in a position to capitalize on it and scoop up cheap assets whilst those voting for it seem to be the ones that'll most lose out. We'll just need to wait and see what happens, and hope it's not as bad as predicted.

I think it’s best that Wikipedia is not really used as a reference.

I think the latest doom mongering was this one -

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-would-plunge-britain-into-a-recession-says-obr

Now I will declare up front that I actually believe this. It sounds like a sensible prediction. Certainly more than most of the pre and post-referendum claptrap.

The thing is though, I think that if that’s the extent of the meltdown, i’ll take it. It not a disaster, it’s a fairly limited recession, not that deep nor long term. It’s a blip.

There’s a load emotive language from Phil the arch remainer of course, but cut through that crap and it’s big deal.

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The Irish can simply veto. Remember there's a United Ireland at stake. A far bigger prize.

Let S. Ireland show it's true political colours by all means. Bring it on!

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

Let S. Ireland show it's true political colours by all means. Bring it on!

Return to the 70's. No thanks.

phillw

SpiderLegs wrote: »

The thing is though, I think that if that’s the extent of the meltdown, i’ll take it. It not a disaster, it’s a fairly limited recession, not that deep nor long term. It’s a blip.

But why would you take it, when there is no upside to leaving the EU?

It's like choosing to self harm purely on the basis that it won't actually kill you.

I feel really sorry for the people who are in a desperate situation that can't cope with any thing getting worse and were pinning their hopes that voting to leave would actually have some benefit to them.

The OBR report shows that we'll be worse off for at least 5 years and doesn't make any suggestion of when we would recover. I am with JRM that we may not see an upside for 50 years.

Is that honestly why all the people voted to leave?

SpiderLegs wrote: »

There’s a load emotive language from Phil the arch remainer of course, but cut through that crap and it’s big deal.

I'm following Aaron Banks example, without the blatant lying to manipulate people (that he admits to doing BTW)