Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

SpiderLegs

Tromking wrote: »

Labour on the cusp of declaring themselves a Remain party and pushing for a 2nd referendum apparently. That illicits a negative response from 20 odd Labour MP’s in Leave seats. Could TM’s deal sneak through with the support of disaffected Labour MP’s anxious to hold onto their seats?

Not a chance in hell.

Anyway it’s now pointless for labour to argue for another referendum. It would basically hand boris a landslide.

borntobefree

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Not a chance in hell.

Anyway it’s now pointless for labour to argue for another referendum. It would basically hand boris a landslide.

Who would believe Labour is a Remain party?

It’s better for there to be one Remain party and that’s the Lib Dem’s.

Herzlos

SpiderLegs wrote: »

You’re spot on. Of course the bit you’ve missed out is that without this border/agreement, it’ll be the EU that are violating terms just as much as the UK.

So when Japan (for example) complain to the WTO about the EU not enforcing their own trade borders, what will their response be?

The EU and the UK will both be in the dock, so why on earth some ardent remainers think it’s all down to the latter to resolve god only knows.

The folly of splitting withdrawal from future relationship I’m afraid....

That's why the EU will enforce their borders.

SpiderLegs

Herzlos wrote: »

That's why the EU will enforce their borders.

No I think you mean the EU will tell the ROI to put a border up.

I.e. they will throw them under the bus exactly like they said they wouldn’t.

Hey ho never mind eh!

Herzlos

SpiderLegs wrote: »

No I think you mean the EU will tell the ROI to put a border up.

I.e. they will throw them under the bus exactly like they said they wouldn’t.

Hey ho never mind eh!

Eire is part of the EU and fully supported by it, no?

If anyone is throwing countries under a bus it's us.

borntobefree

mayonnaise wrote: »

I also think TM's deal might sneak through, but for other reasons.

To avoid a no confidence motion being passed, leading to an election in which the Tories will wiped out by the Brexit Party Ltd, hard line brexiteers, and pretty much the whole Tory party, will get behind TM's deal.
After all, there will be a brexiteer in place for the next stage of talks (future relationship)

I agree. There will, however, be a minor change made to look like a major change, to save face.

However, not sure that the Tories will still have the numbers - the DUP probably still won’t for the deal. 10 Tories might cross the floor but 10 Labour Brexiteers might too. It will be tight.

Tromking

It’s important to remember that both Barnier and Veradkar have stated that no hard border will ever exist on the island of Ireland even in the event of no deal.
As it stands at the moment both the U.K. and the ROI are Sovereign nations are free to enact things like Brexit without reference to the needs and wants of the other.
Ireland clearly has the choice still to abrogate the negative effects of Brexit in any way it sees fit, the fact that is has chosen this current path cannot be blamed on the U.K.
When Ireland chose to lower its Corp tax rates to one of the the lowest in the EU, did it factor in the effects of that on the NI economy?
Probably not, it was a Sovereign nation making decisions to suit its own needs and wants.

SpiderLegs

I would change the backstop to Border checks down the Irish Sea personally.

Treat the whole of Ireland as a single area. Anything going between ROI & rEU or NI & rUK.
That seems to be the cost of both sides wanting to maintain an open border.
And at the end of the day it’d be a temporary state, outside the transition period and prior to any future deal. If the deal doesn’t happen then the checks have to remain, but both sides are incentivised to not let that happen longer term.

Not much chance of getting that through this parliament though. Much like every other option.

Enterprise_1701C

Any backstop is meant to be temporary, but that depends on the eu negotiating in good faith. I really do not see that happening because they do not want anyone to leave.

I have no real objection to the WA, as it is purely the divorce agreement, but we really should have insisted on negotiating the trade deal at the same time as the divorce. I have my suspicions about why the eu did not wish to do this, and the more I look at the eu's negotiating strategy the more it seems to be designed to force us to remain.

If we go with the WA, and the eu mess about with the trade deal, then I am pretty sure we could take them to court and tell them to get stuffed on the grounds that they did not negotiate in good faith.

As for the idea that the border checks could be in the Irish sea, well, with that it was feared that the eu was basically trying to take over NI, and I really would not put it past them.

Takedap

Tromking wrote: »

Its my view that the damage to the UK economy of Brexit will be limited, so my wanting to give the establishment a bloody nose is a moot point.

I also believe that the damage to the UK economy won't be as bad as the worst case scenarios that some are predicting.


However, it's good of you to finally admit that you are expecting damage & not the "Brexit Bonus" that we were promised.