Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

lisyloo

We've already lost most of our car industry over this

I agree this is bad, but Im not sure all the car industry demise can be put at the door of brexit.
The shutdown at bridgend was being planned before the referendum.


Very bad in general though for businesses not to be able to plan.
We should have worked this all out first before invoking article 50.

Herzlos

lisyloo wrote: »

I agree this is bad, but Im not sure all the car industry demise can be put at the door of brexit.

Not all, certainly; the trade deal with Japan may have moved some back to Japan. But were there any car manufacturers saying that it was a good idea?
I can dig out pages of statements from Nissan/Honda warning that Brexit would be catastrophic to them.

We should have worked this all out first before invoking article 50.

Absolutely, we should have had some vague idea what we were doing before the pulled the trigger, but we didn't and still don't. We're 3 years in and not really any further forward.

lisyloo

Herzlos wrote: »

Not all, certainly; the trade deal with Japan may have moved some back to Japan. But were there any car manufacturers saying that it was a good idea?
I can dig out pages of statements from Nissan/Honda warning that Brexit would be catastrophic to them.

Absolutely, Ford are saying brexit is catastrophic for the car industry.


But we would have had issues anyway.
I wouldn't buy a petrol car right now, I'd wait a few years to see new technology, so sales would have fallen anyway, whilst the new electric cars are not good enough yet for most pepole.

Herzlos

I'm not sure if electric cars are hurting sales across the board, rather than changing the spread (Tesla didn't exist a few years ago). Some buyers may be holding off a bit longer to upgrade, but I suspect most new car buyers aren't so organised or have as much control over the purchasing cycle (via PCP for instance).


We're hopefully unlikely to replace our car unless it's for an EV, but we don't buy new anyway.


There may also be some general economic uncertainty (but that'll be a nightmare to detach from Brexit), causing people to wait or drop a class or brand (3 series instead of 5 series, VW instead of Audi and so on).


The emergency of some nice cars from the budget brands (Dacia, Kia, etc) may also be hurting the established middle brands (VW, Opel).

borntobefree

Tromking wrote: »

To be honest though I derived the biggest pleasure in seeing how the referendum result annoyed middle class metropolitan English people. It’s been a joy to behold.

Except the pain and worry go way behind middle class metropolitan English people. Do you ever bother to spare a thought for the Irish who’s economy could be destroyed by a no deal Brexit? The people of NI? The people who run businesses in the other 27 EU countries exporting to Britain?

Brexit has brought out the very worst in some Brits.

Is it any wonder we’re disliked?

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

Anything that reduces the quality of life further for the poor, in this case, since you seem to be doing thisbto champion the poor.

We've already lost most of our car industry over this, we still face losing our banking industry and most other industry. We're going to have to pay for everything we split the bill with the EU over.

Is there a level of damage you wouldn't be willing to see in order to give the establishment a bloody nose? I mean, where would you draw the line?

If you're going to use hyperbolic language like "trashing the economy" it would be helpful if you came up with a better answer than the one you've given. Its a bit wishy washy TBH.
We patently haven't lost most of our car industy and the argument that what we have lost is due to Brexit is at best highly debateable and at worst completely untrue.
Your narrative about the banking industry is again conjecture on your part and a throwback to the now debunked project fear days of 2016.
Its my view that the damage to the UK economy of Brexit will be limited, so my wanting to give the establishment a bloody nose is a moot point.

Enterprise_1701C

borntobefree wrote: »

Except the pain and worry go way behind middle class metropolitan English people. Do you ever bother to spare a thought for the Irish who’s economy could be destroyed by a no deal Brexit? The people of NI? The people who run businesses in the other 27 EU countries exporting to Britain?

Brexit has brought out the very worst in soFme Brits.

Is it any wonder we’re disliked?

It is the Irish who are insisting on no movement on the backstop, it is the irish that are trying to prevent us from leaving. They have no care for what we want.

Oh, and I was just thinking about another comment. Weren't the eu planning on moving the banking centre to Frankfurt?

Thrugelmir

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Oh, and I was just thinking about another comment. Weren't the eu planning on moving the banking centre to Frankfurt?

No, Macron wants it in Paris. Brexit or not. Ultimately National interests always come first.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

If you're going to use hyperbolic language like "trashing the economy" it would be helpful if you came up with a better answer than the one you've given. Its a bit wishy washy TBH.
We patently haven't lost most of our car industy and the argument that what we have lost is due to Brexit is at best highly debateable and at worst completely untrue.
Your narrative about the banking industry is again conjecture on your part and a throwback to the now debunked project fear days of 2016.
Its my view that the damage to the UK economy of Brexit will be limited, so my wanting to give the establishment a bloody nose is a moot point.

Bear in mind we haven't left yet - we already know some manufacturers aren't renewing lines in the UK. We still don't know if banking can continue and so on.


Even the pro-leave side were suggesting a hit of 8% of the economy worst case if we left.

Even Mr hard-Brexit himself, Reese-Mogg (suspiciously quiet now) reckons it'll take 50 years to recover from the damage.



Sure, you may want to believe that it won't be that bad, but what if it is?

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

It is the Irish who are insisting on no movement on the backstop, it is the irish that are trying to prevent us from leaving. They have no care for what we want.

Oh, and I was just thinking about another comment. Weren't the eu planning on moving the banking centre to Frankfurt?

Why should they care what we want? We don't care what they want.


They need to insist on the backstop, because if we renege on the WA then it'll be disastrous for them.

If we want to get rid of the backstop, we need to suggest something that renders it unnecessary.