Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Zero_Gravitas

kabayiri wrote: »

I do apologise. I was probably a bit cranky. (it happens when the hound eats some fresh money!)
...

Ah. Some years ago we had a Labrador that ate £40 in ten pound notes. The notes reappeared in pieces in the garden a couple of days later, but I couldn’t bring myself to reassemble the pieces. Which is quite a confession on a money-saving site.

Generally, owning a dog is the most efficient way yet devised for turning my money into the vet’s money...

Herzlos

sevenhills wrote: »

Some hard line free traders would be ok with zero tariffs to everyone.

But it wouldn't automatically get us zero tariffs from anyone - there's no built in reciprocity.
We'd need to arrange a FTA to get tariff free/checking trade in both directions, but being that everyone else has tariff free trade for goods going to us, what's the incentive for them to open up their markets to us?

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

But it wouldn't automatically get us zero tariffs from anyone - there's no built in reciprocity.
We'd need to arrange a FTA to get tariff free/checking trade in both directions, but being that everyone else has tariff free trade for goods going to us, what's the incentive for them to open up their markets to us?

Britain could offer freedom of movement?

fatbeetle

While the Italian economy, which slipped into recession at the end of 2018, marks a particularly weak spot in the region, cracks have appeared across the 19-nation bloc.

Retail sales slumped 1.6 percent in December, the most in more than seven years, the latest indication that uncertain economic prospects are weighing down growth momentum.

Germany’s industry has been deeply scarred by carmakers’ struggles with new emissions tests and waning global trade. In France, consumer spending took a hit from violent protests against the government.

Activity in French services has declined rapidly in the past two months, with the January PMI indicating the worst contraction in almost five years. New business fell for a second month and job creation slowed.

Luckily, we're getting out...

andrewf75

fatbeetle wrote: »

Luckily, we're getting out...

how much less exposed to these risks will we be though?

very little I would expect

certainly a drop in the ocean compared to the additional risks we have put on ourselves

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

how much less exposed to these risks will we be though?

very little I would expect

certainly a drop in the ocean compared to the additional risks we have put on ourselves

If we do end up staying in an EU which becomes a 2-tier structure (core Eurozone / rest), then there must be some buffer mechanisms to protect the different tiers?

I would be interested in the EU DR plan if the Euro project does become unstuck.

vivatifosi

As a remainer I was very disappointed to hear of Tusk's special place in hell comment.


Such language is not helpful and will only get peoples backs up. Very unstatesmanlike. We need consensus, not yet more division.

Lungboy

He's not wrong though.

Filo25

vivatifosi wrote: »

As a remainer I was very disappointed to hear of Tusk's special place in hell comment.


Such language is not helpful and will only get peoples backs up. Very unstatesmanlike. We need consensus, not yet more division.

There isn't going to be consensus, the fact that he said that publicly is a fair indication that at least certain elements within the EU have finally had enough of indulging our fantasies, and has basically given up on the process.

May could come back with a time limited backstop and you can guarantee a lot of the more evangelical wing of the ERG would still find a reason not to vote for it

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

But it wouldn't automatically get us zero tariffs from anyone - there's no built in reciprocity.
We'd need to arrange a FTA to get tariff free/checking trade in both directions, but being that everyone else has tariff free trade for goods going to us, what's the incentive for them to open up their markets to us?

Amazing how many people (and I include out politicians in that) seem to ignore that very basic fact.