Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

movilogo

It's also pretty tempting for remain voters to accept no deal. Either we're wrong but we have the consolation that things go well, or we're right and we go hard join in a scramble back to safety.

This is why I feel 2nd referendum is right thing but AFTER Brexit.

Let people realize whether No Deal is good or bad. If it is bad then you don't need to convince people to rejoin EU.

Anything else is all about war of my words vs yours case.

Based on a recent poll (albeit with small sample) in MSE, No Deal still came as winner.

So there are millions of people who simply don't believe the Project Fear version X.

Malthusian

movilogo wrote: »

If Brexit is delayed/denied, next GE will be fight between Leave and Remain parties.

We already had one of those and Leave parties won 579-15 (or 596-54 if you count localist parties, but classifying a Leave The UK party as Remain seems counterintuitive).

Even if the Tories and Labour disintegrate, nobody is going to join the political graveyard that would be a Remain party. You might as well join a party called The National We Won't Win Party (I was going to call it the Monster Raving Loser Party but that sounds too much like crowing). Admittedly the Liberal Democrats exist but there's a reason not many people join it. Politicians are ambitious and the vast majority want to join a party that has a realistic chance of forming a government in the near future.

phillw

movilogo wrote: »

This is why I feel 2nd referendum is right thing but AFTER Brexit.

One problem with that is we currently have a stonking good deal with the EU, one that will never be achieved again. I know a lot of people feel like victims, but we're really not.

But on the positive side, we have about three million EU citizens that are currently registering to vote along with the expats who lost their vote after 15 years which would tip the balance.

So what you're saying is we should leave so that we can instantly rejoin on worse terms than we're currently on. It doesn't make logical sense to do it that way round.

Holding a second vote before we leave is actually in the leave voters favour.

Malthusian wrote: »

We already had one of those and Leave parties won 579-15 (or 596-54 if you count localist parties, but classifying a Leave The UK party as Remain seems counterintuitive).

My reading of the 2017 Labour party manifesto is they were a remain party, they said they respected the vote but would push for single market benefits. This is BRINO and I think it's disingenuous to classify BRINO as leave.

The DUP seems to be in a quantum superposition

Moby

Malthusian wrote: »

They have no other option other than the nuclear option, which is to simply ignore the referendum and cancel Brexit.

Nuclear option is the right term here because it would be catastrophic for both the Tories and Labour. Brexitexit is mutually assured political destruction. Both parties would lose the votes of over half the country and be politically extinct. Even if parties called Conservative and Labour remained, they would be unrecognisable as the parties we have now.

No deal exit on the other hand would not be catastrophic for either party. Even if we do have a crippling recession, inflation and mass unemployment, that won't affect MPs or senior civil servants. A depression might cause a Tory defeat in the next election but that's no disaster as the Tories are probably going to lose the next election regardless, as they've won the last three and it's Labour's turn; a return to the normal economic and electoral cycle would not be classified as a disaster.

Parliament will therefore act in their own interests and trigger no deal Brexit. Either it will be a disaster and after a couple of years they can bring the UK crawling back into the EU, or it will be a smashing success in which case MPs will be heroes and say they knew all along that they had to get Brexit over the line. Win-win.

You forgot the Kyle/Wilson 'Peoples Vote' option:-

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/03/the-game-of-brexits-why-brexit-wont-happen-without-another-referendum/


The indicative votes are clear a 'no deal' brexit is the least likely option despite all the current scaremongering from the EU. The bottom line is they won't abandon Ireland to the fallout you describe.

Herzlos

Brexit will be the end of the Tories for a generation or 2 (which might end them completely), once the damage becomes apparent. All options are political suicide, except for a 2nd referendum which allows Parliament to blame the public for Brexit being cancelled.


Ironically, a 2nd referendum is also the only way in which a hard brexit can be mandated - it's in the best interests of everyone (allowing that this mess will drag on if it's a 52:48 the other way this time).

Rinoa wrote: »

How will they increase their wealth with Brexit as opposed to staying in the EU.

Scrapping the EU tax avoidance regulation.
Cutting workers rights, safety standards, etc will help business and property owners.
Cutting services will reduce the tax burden on the weathly.
A deep recession provides plenty of avenues for disaster capitalism - buying stuff up cheap.
No-deal Brexit will almost certainly cause the £ to drop further, allowing money to be made hedging against it (apparently, one of Farages friends made £220m betting against the £ on referendum night, fed by inside information. One of my old bosses did similar but on a smaller scale and made a few £1000's).

We then join again a few years later once the damage is done and the money made, and they enjoy the new prosperity with their expanded empires. It's brilliant, if you're already rich.

You might notice the theme there is shafting the normal people, many of whom voted for the shafting.
When someone like Jacob Reese-Mogg or Aaron Banks are encouraging you to do something, you can be certain it's for their benefit and not yours.

phillw

Moby wrote: »

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/03/the-game-of-brexits-why-brexit-wont-happen-without-another-referendum/

Ive been making that point on here for a long time. The problem is that leave voters think its a trick and will not support it, despite farage realising it's true. Which is most likely to push us to no brexit

Herzlos wrote: »

(apparently, one of Farages friends made £220m betting against the £ on referendum night, fed by inside information. One of my old bosses did similar but on a smaller scale and made a few £1000's).

This is the same private poll that Farage was shown that he claimed showed a remain win, while we now know it showed a leave win.

Herzlos wrote: »

A deep recession provides plenty of avenues for disaster capitalism - buying stuff up cheap.

Rees Mogg's dad even wrote a book about how to do that.

Moby wrote: »

The indicative votes are clear a 'no deal' brexit is the least likely option despite all the current scaremongering from the EU. The bottom line is they won't abandon Ireland to the fallout you describe.

The EU aren't scaremongering, no deal is the default unless parliament can do something and they still appear to be unable to do anything. The previous votes against no deal might evaporate, it's an unpopular thought but people can change their minds.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

Brexit will be the end of the Tories for a generation or 2 (which might end them completely), once the damage becomes apparent. All options are political suicide, except for a 2nd referendum which allows Parliament to blame the public for Brexit being cancelled.


Ironically, a 2nd referendum is also the only way in which a hard brexit can be mandated - it's in the best interests of everyone (allowing that this mess will drag on if it's a 52:48 the other way this time).


Scrapping the EU tax avoidance regulation.
Cutting workers rights, safety standards, etc will help business and property owners.
Cutting services will reduce the tax burden on the weathly.
A deep recession provides plenty of avenues for disaster capitalism - buying stuff up cheap.
No-deal Brexit will almost certainly cause the £ to drop further, allowing money to be made hedging against it (apparently, one of Farages friends made £220m betting against the £ on referendum night, fed by inside information. One of my old bosses did similar but on a smaller scale and made a few £1000's).

We then join again a few years later once the damage is done and the money made, and they enjoy the new prosperity with their expanded empires. It's brilliant, if you're already rich.

You might notice the theme there is shafting the normal people, many of whom voted for the shafting.
When someone like Jacob Reese-Mogg or Aaron Banks are encouraging you to do something, you can be certain it's for their benefit and not yours.

You have a very vivid imagination. You must be in momentum.

movilogo

One problem with that is we currently have a stonking good deal with the EU, one that will never be achieved again.

That is an opinion. No one knows what might happen in future. After No Deal Brexit EU will face lot of pain - some countries more than others. So, equation is very volatile.

Economics is more art than science. So it is still holier than thou debate.

mayonnaise

Conservative Party members ripping up their membership cards. Lovely jubbly! :T
Every brexit has a silver lining.



https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/04/03/conservatives-cut-up-membership-cards-after-pm-agrees-to-talks-w/

StevieJ

mayonnaise wrote: »

Conservative Party members ripping up their membership cards. Lovely jubbly! :T
Every brexit has a silver lining.



https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/04/03/conservatives-cut-up-membership-cards-after-pm-agrees-to-talks-w/

I hear time after time from Brexiteers that the Labour party should be supporting Brexit to enable a smooth exit