Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Tromking

melanzana wrote: »

Look, it was just your reference to the UK having its own INTERNAL MARKET that prompted me to respond.

Of course Ireland will be affected, everyone knows this.

Are you gleeful about that, and if so why?

Of course the U.K. has an internal market, Northern Ireland will continue to be be part of it post Brexit and Ireland is hoping that its access to it continues.
I quite like the grown up close relationship the U.K. has with Ireland and it’s good to see both countries wanting to continue certain facets of the CTA post Brexit.

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

And GFA has led to the end of the troubles in NI, which was a big issue too, lest we forget.

More peacewalls dividing communities now exist than before the GFA was signed. Division between communities is still very real. In Sept 17, I visited some friends who live close to the Ring of Kerry. We visited Killarney House. My overriding memory was the tour guide informing us that until 2004 history was erased. As mentioning the visit of Queen Victoria would have resulted in a kneecapping or some other form of aggression. A timely reminder that Nationalism (as can be found in book shops in the area) is very much alive.

I can cite many other examples of similar experiences. History unfortunately once written is set in stone.

Your own dash for a passport is a form of Nationalism. Your roots lie elsewhere. The EU itself is becoming protectionist. CAP, tariiffs imposed to protect European industries, ownership of European companies etc, imposition of rules on countries with trade agreements.

My late father worked for a British Empire Company , a rubber plantation owner in Malaysia. Was bought out by the Chinese in 1968. As he often said to me. Watch the Chinese as they play the long game. Might not be my lifetime but they march relentlessly on. The world is no longer going to be dominated by the European adventurers. Their era of empire building , not just the UK's, is coming to a close. With it a new game to be played where the rules set are somebody elses.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU aren't negotiating currently. Whatever the UK "wants", will have to come in the form of concessions in other areas.

They aren't prepared to negotiate the withdrawal agreement, that doesn't mean they aren't negotiating at all. As has been mentioned quite a few times now, whatever happens moving forward requires the underpinnings of the withdrawal agreement.

i.e. even a common market 2.0 would require a backstop in case we decided to tear down common market 2.0 the day after it started.

Essentially parliament would be forcing the EU's hand to get something legally binding on the future arrangement before we have left. That might be something they are willing to do, we'd have to negotiate it though.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The world is no longer going to be dominated by the European adventurers. Their era of empire building , not just the UK's, is coming to a close. With it a new game to be played where the rules set are somebody elses.

That is the reason why the EU always does trade deals as a bloc. What you're saying is not new or news.

When you negotiate with someone like America or China then the clout of 28 countries is better than 1. These new trade deals that we keep being promised once we're free of the shackles of the EU would be a dogs breakfast in comparison with the ones that the EU are doing. I do wonder if the people saying it would be an advantage are delusional or lying.

BikingBud wrote: »

He had, a choice represent his constituents or go it alone.

One must consider that if you do go it alone then one should expect the constituents will have their say.

He has been representing his constituents, it's just that his local party has become unhinged. I'm not sure where the betrayed was, he voted the same way as hard line leavers on Friday. If Jon Conway stands then I think it's pretty obvious what it's about.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/b7arfk/jon_conway_the_ex_ukip_candidate_pantomime/

I'm not sure why they bothered , it's not like the conservatives will do well at a GE anyway. Grieve is continuing to represent his constituents in the mean time as deselection doesn't trigger a bi-election.

Tromking wrote: »

Who ‘s angry?
You conceded a few posts back that Ireland would be effected by Brexit.
Of course the British internal market exists, its what the Irish are concerned about losing access to.

Right now it's not looking good for NI either, even with max-fac+ 2.0 ultimate edition. We're likely going to have to pump money into NI.

BobQ

Tromking wrote: »

To be fair to the Irish, you have to be a bit idiotic as country to be still so closely wedded to the British internal market one hundred years after independence.

Same applies to the UK being wedded to the EU internal market. So who are the idiots there?

Takedap

BikingBud wrote: »

Perhaps the Ukraine have the correct idea.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47767440

At least you know you are voting for someone with comedy value. :T

Rather than a whole load of people that make it look like the world's worst circus:mad:

I think Jonathan Pie would be a great choice for leader. Certainly better than going "full clown" & getting Boris Johnson.

gfplux

melanzana wrote: »

UK Brexit is UK led. End of story. And I am guessing that most of the EU countries don't really care TBH. ROI will be affected for sure, but that has been the British way for centuries, they believe that ROI is just a post colonial population of idiots anyway ha ha. and will bow to whatever UK say now. (I have Irish heritage and got an Irish passport now too yay).

The Swiss issue has been decided upon. Swiss thought they could get around the four freedoms (including freedom of movement of people) in their own way, but NO, you are either a member of the SM or not.

Good enough for them.

I was very surprised when listening to a ROI podcast RTÉ BREXIT REPUBLIC when they discussed no deal. The plans are in place to cope and while it is damaging the EU is ready with the ROI to cope.
This could mean that refusing an extension is in the cards.
Chancellor Merkel is visiting the ROI this week perhaps in preparation?

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

No.
You mentioned it yourself, Ireland is specifically exposed to the potential loss of access to the British internal market because of Brexit.
Do keep up.

I think you will find that the land bridge to mainland Europe for ROI exports is a large % of the problem for Ireland.

Tromking

BobQ wrote: »

Same applies to the UK being wedded to the EU internal market. So who are the idiots there?

Not quite the same, the CTA between Ireland and the UK predates our joint Common Market membership by a good few decades.You'd think that Ireland's exposure to the loss of UK Market access would have decreased markedly over that period, especially their agricultural sector.
Although if other posters are correct, Ireland is becoming less worried about a no deal scenario.
As regards UK and EU trade, I would expect a 'hit' to the UK economy in the event of no deal being commensurate with the fact that 92% of UK companies do no trade with the EU at all.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Chancellor Merkel is visiting the ROI this week perhaps in preparation?

Here's hoping.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

I would expect a 'hit' to the UK economy in the event of no deal being commensurate with the fact that 92% of UK companies do no trade with the EU at all.

Best case has been predicted to be 8%. Where does this 92% figure come from? Is that taking any indirect trade into account?


For example, a hairdressers, dealing only with local customers and buying supplies from a UK distributor could be argued to have no EU trade. But if the distributor is sourcing the stuff from the EU, it's still going to have a knock-on effect on the hairdresser in terms of costs and supply issues.



So I suspect your 92% figure is essentially meaningless, but I'd need to see the original research in order to do some further reading.