Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

Best case has been predicted to be 8%. Where does this 92% figure come from? Is that taking any indirect trade into account?


For example, a hairdressers, dealing only with local customers and buying supplies from a UK distributor could be argued to have no EU trade. But if the distributor is sourcing the stuff from the EU, it's still going to have a knock-on effect on the hairdresser in terms of costs and supply issues.

So I suspect your 92% figure is essentially meaningless, but I'd need to see the original research in order to do some further reading.

Google is your friend, the 92% figure is widely used.
Incidently, I never said there wouldn't be a negative effect on the UK economy in the event of no deal , I said that it would be commensurate with that figure of 92%.
You seem surprised and perhaps disappointed that more UK firms are not exposed to any potential problems with trading with the EU.

Thrugelmir

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

If you're selling enough units it's cheaper to manufacture locally in a big local factory. If you're a niche player in Europe (which is what Mazda are, realistically), then it's cheaper to maufacture in a large plant in Japan and pay tariffs and transport. So that what they've done.

Swindon Honda plant has been working well under capacity for some time.

As have many other manufacturers around the globe. There's excess capacity. Rationisation in the industry seems on the cards in the not to distant future. As auto manufacturing becomes increasingly automated.

Rinoa

Eurozone manufactoring PMI plunges to 47.5 in March.

UK manufactoring PMI surges to 55.1 in March.

All despite Brexit of course. :T:T

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

UK manufactoring PMI surges to 55.1 in March.

"...as pace of stockpiling hits fresh survey-record"

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8062928457f94913931debe1e7d75855

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

I thought Rees-Mogg retweeting AfD propaganda was an obvious April Fool's joke.

https://news.sky.com/story/jacob-rees-mogg-denies-promoting-anti-islam-alternative-for-germany-party-11681277

Alas, it wasn't.

And then some on here proclaim there's no far-right extremism in British politics.

Just faux indignation from the loony left. No doubt eager to divert attention from their own racist difficulties.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

Google is your friend, the 92% figure is widely used.

I can see this https://fullfact.org/europe/how-many-businesses-export-eu/ which tells me that about 8% export to the EU. Is that what you meant by trading with the EU?
It then goes on to explain that it's not an accurate figure.

You seem surprised and perhaps disappointed that more UK firms are not exposed to any potential problems with trading with the EU.

Not disappointed but definitely surprised that so few UK businesses don't rely on a trading relationship with the EU. I can understand that 8% export directly to the EU, but I don't believe that 92% are immune to changes in trading conditions.


I can only think of a handful of jobs in the UK which don't rely on consuming some kind of produce or tariff worthy goods. Even car washed and nail bars have consumables.


At a push you've got estate agents, solicitors and drug dealers, but they still rely on cars which are going to get more expensive. Albeit the latter isn't likely to be leasing a car for it.



Prostitution seems to be the only one that's truly unaffected.


So I'm just curious as to how you try to defend the figure you've been using, because I'm stumped.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Technology is changing the playing field.

I'm not disagreeing with these facts that you are posting, only the conclusion you are drawing from those facts.

The only reason to go our own way is if we're planning on following an Amish lifestyle and shunning technology.

Herzlos

mayonnaise wrote: »

"...as pace of stockpiling hits fresh survey-record"

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/8062928457f94913931debe1e7d75855

How dare you inject some context into figures that make it look like we're doing better than the EU!


I'd be concerned if companies who hadn't been told to go into full contingency planning hadn't been stockpiling stuff - unfortunately it means that if all goes well we're going to see a huge drop whilst the stockpiles run down.

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

How dare you inject some context into figures that make it look like we're doing better than the EU!


I'd be concerned if companies who hadn't been told to go into full contingency planning hadn't been stockpiling stuff - unfortunately it means that if all goes well we're going to see a huge drop whilst the stockpiles run down.

You've put into context why UK PMI is so strong, you going to go through the same intellectual exercise as to why the Eurozone PMI is so weak?
Only fair.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

You've put into context why UK PMI is so strong, you going to go through the same intellectual exercise as to why the Eurozone PMI is so weak?
Only fair.

I've no idea, presumably it's scaling output back somewhat, as it doesn't need to do as much stock piling proportionally.




In the interest of fairness, can you respond to me queries about your 92% figure?