Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

Best case has been predicted to be 8%. Where does this 92% figure come from? Is that taking any indirect trade into account?


For example, a hairdressers, dealing only with local customers and buying supplies from a UK distributor could be argued to have no EU trade. But if the distributor is sourcing the stuff from the EU, it's still going to have a knock-on effect on the hairdresser in terms of costs and supply issues.



So I suspect your 92% figure is essentially meaningless, but I'd need to see the original research in order to do some further reading.

100% of businesses on my local high street don't trade with the EU.
Therefore we can conclude that Englefield Green will feel no impact of a no deal brexit.
Brexiteer logic at its finest. :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

That is the reason why the EU always does trade deals as a bloc. What you're saying is not new or news.

Large companies, such as Honda, are a step ahead. Every lever that gets pulled has a consequence elsewhere.

Zero_Gravitas

Classic:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/photos/share/lneT6oXJbffbf6GfDKCm8GpSsYFkjnzHqj7fKTlA4HO

For lots more exposure of brexiteer lies and hypocrisy, look at “Led by Donkeys” on Facebook. They deserve medals.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Large companies, such as Honda, are a step ahead. Every lever that gets pulled has a consequence elsewhere.

They only ever came here to beat the tariffs, now japan has their deal then there is no point in staying. Which is a pretty poor state of affairs and one that won't be fixed by leaving the EU.

We can't go lower than zero import tariffs, so our deal with Japan is likely to be the same as the EU or worse.

I understand consequences, it seems leavers don't.

I wasn't expecting this from the telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/31/april-fools-jokes-banned-amid-fear-panic-buying-brexit/

Parliament seem busy today, I do hope they get time to have a decent debate about the benefits of revoking article 50. The people have spoken.

Someone has started a proportional representation petition https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/245488

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

They only ever came here to beat the tariffs,

Mazda have never had a European manufacturing plant. Yet has sold cars across Europe for decades. BMW builds the X5 series in the US.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Mazda have never had a European manufacturing plant. Yet has sold cars across Europe for decades. BMW builds the X5 series in the US.

Are we going to spend all day listing the companies where manufacturing in europe didn't save enough money to justify it? BMW aren't particularly price conscious.

The biggest problem after brexit is going to be to figure out how to massively upscale manufacturing here so that we can have any kind of leverage in a trade deal.

Herzlos

The problem with upscaling British manufacturing is that we don't produce many raw materials anymore, so we're reliant on importing most of the stuff needed to make stuff. In essence, we need a good trade deal in order to upscale manufacturing to get a good trade deal.

phillw wrote: »

They only ever came here to beat the tariffs, now japan has their deal then there is no point in staying. Which is a pretty poor state of affairs and one that won't be fixed by leaving the EU.

There's still some merit in building the things locally, if both options are tariff free. You can get more cars into a shipping container as a pile of parts than as a whole, for instance.
So I think even Japan going tariff free to Europe (assuming it did the same with the UK), it wouldn't be justification on it's own for moving any plants.

I wasn't expecting this from the telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/31/april-fools-jokes-banned-amid-fear-panic-buying-brexit/

Took me far too long to get it. We've long passed the point where parody is indistinguishable from the truth, which almost makes this true.

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

We've long passed the point where parody is indistinguishable from the truth, which almost makes this true.

I thought Rees-Mogg retweeting AfD propaganda was an obvious April Fool's joke.

https://news.sky.com/story/jacob-rees-mogg-denies-promoting-anti-islam-alternative-for-germany-party-11681277

Alas, it wasn't.

And then some on here proclaim there's no far-right extremism in British politics.

Zero_Gravitas

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Mazda have never had a European manufacturing plant. Yet has sold cars across Europe for decades. BMW builds the X5 series in the US.

If you need to understand the business logic, it's about economies of scale. in 2017 Mazda sold about 230,000 units in Europe; Toyota sold 1,001,700.

If you're selling enough units it's cheaper to manufacture locally in a big local factory. If you're a niche player in Europe (which is what Mazda are, realistically), then it's cheaper to maufacture in a large plant in Japan and pay tariffs and transport. So that what they've done.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

Are we going to spend all day listing the companies where manufacturing in europe didn't save enough money to justify it?

Honda won't be shipping the current model range from Japan. Technology is changing the playing field.

Honda shifted some component production to Thailand from the UK some years back. That's where the cost savings were to be found.