Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

buglawton

AG47 wrote: »

It’s goign to be no deal on April 12

TM will be happy so she can say I told you that you should’ve listened to me. She won’t be blamed, but can quite confidently say she did here best but her hands were tied.

Between a rock and a Hard place

Correct, April 12, 2021.

jonnygee2

At what cost? Under what EU terms?

It'll probably be quite expensive. They are now thinking about charging us £39bn just to sit at the negotiating table.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brussels-sets-39bn-price-on-emergency-talks-after-no-deal-fk2f33bjl

Herzlos

We're not going to get away with reneging on our debt, we've proven ourselves unreliable and once we've left A50 no longer compelled the EU to negotiate. Damn right the EU will way debts settles before we move on from a no deal.

Leaving then negotiating gives away what little leverage we had.

Herzlos

Irish border issue may be unresolvable. With neither side willing to compromise their understandable positions.

One side has no reason or position to compromise, the other has no idea what it wants.

The Eire border can be resolved easily once someone decides which of the contradictory red lines to drop, and which part of the electorate to upset.

Arklight

Everyone who voted Remain really passionately wanted, and still wants, to stay in the EU. Whereas the Leave vote has no such unity.

Yes some Leavers hate the EU and can't wait to go and I accept that there are millions of them. But there aren't 17.4 million of them and they know that.

A lot of their camp had no such convictions. Either at the time or now.

Like all referendums, many chose to vote against a government they disliked, rather than with a cause they cared about. Cameron announcing he would resign if he lost didn't exactly rally people around Remain, for example.

It's this that will ultimately be the end of Brexit. There simply is no stomach for it.

What there is stomach for is a root and branch change in how Parliament works. It has shown itself to be not fit for purpose.

penners324

Your over egging your pudding somewhat.
A lot of remain voters were ambivalent about the EU and voted remsin because it was deemed the safe option.

There is vast gulf in the remain camp between those who think it's safe and those who are uber remainers and want to go all in on the EU. Ie Euro, Schengen, PESCO, etc etc.

penners324

*You're* obviously!!

gfplux

In my opinion some of the EU27 are minded to refuse an extension beyond April 12th.

Their original offer as I understood it was a further extension beyond April 12th to May 22nd if the Withdrawal/transition/Political declaration deal was passed by the British Parliament. This extension deal was offered after many hours of discussion in the EU27. It is easy to see that a refusal to further extend could win the day when they all meet again on April 10th.

Britain might be headed for a no deal exit on April 12th or a withdrawal of A50.

The Irish Prime Minister I understand is chasing around Europe reminding various Presidents, Chancelors and Prime Ministers that they promised not to abandon him and the ROI.
However the Brexit process is not only damaging Britain. This process has and is causing growing problems and irritations for the EU.

Arklight

Depressing. The only silver lining is that there are so few of them.

Herzlos

penners324 wrote: »

Your over egging your pudding somewhat.
A lot of remain voters were ambivalent about the EU and voted remsin because it was deemed the safe option.

There is vast gulf in the remain camp between those who think it's safe and those who are uber remainers and want to go all in on the EU. Ie Euro, Schengen, PESCO, etc etc.

Absolutely there's a huge variance in remainers but nothing that sways this decision.

Though I don't think there are any remain options that require a ministry of plenty.