Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

movilogo

StevieJ wrote: »

Customs Union then?

Yes, I don't know why Brexiters are against Customs Union.

Single Market requires 4 freedoms to be obeyed.

But CM does not require that.

So, UK could be out of SM but inside CM.

That's seems like a best balance of Leave and Remain.

Having said that, 4 freedomes in SM is not a laws of physics or mathematics. It is a political thing - hence negotiable. Whether EU budges or not that is a different thing.

How do people provide those goods/services if they don't have free movement?

Not a problem really - people can get visa/permit - effectively how non-EU nationals current enter UK. Holiday/short business travel can continue to be visa free.

Moe_The_Bartender

movilogo wrote: »

Yes, I don't know why Brexiters are against Customs Union.

Not a problem really - people can get visa/permit - effectively how non-EU nationals current enter UK. Holiday/short business travel can continue to be visa free.

If you don't understand why Brexiteers are against a customs union, you haven't been paying attention. Tell us how the UK can negotiate FTAs with other countries if it’s in a CU.

It's good of the EU To let UK citizens continue to take holidays in member states. The Portuguese are showing them how to do it, even having dedicated passport lanes for UK visitors. They know who is their oldest ally.

https://www.c-mw.net/portugal-announces-contingencies-to-ease-brexit-travel-concerns/

mayonnaise

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

If you don't understand why Brexiteers are against a customs union, you haven't been paying attention. Tell us how the UK can negotiate FTAs with other countries if it’s in a CU.

Ask the average Brexiteer what an FTA is and you'll most likely draw a blank.

Freedom to do FTA's never figured much during the referendum campaign. It only became a topic when the brextremists turned it into one by insisting on the hardest of brexits.
It's a red herring anyway.
45% of our exports go to the EU.
80% of the remaining 55% is through EU FTA's and bilateral agreements with said third countries.
We'll be fine piggybacking on EU agreements.

Moe_The_Bartender

mayonnaise wrote: »

Ask the average Brexiteer what an FTA is and you'll most likely draw a blank.

Ask the same question of Remainers and you will also most likely get a blank.

Thrugelmir

movilogo wrote: »

Having said that, 4 freedomes in SM is not a laws of physics or mathematics. It is a political thing - hence negotiable.

I'm suprised that people still believe the 4 pillars to be negotiable. There are most certainly not. In addition they form the basis of the Brussels bureaucrats negotiating position and likewise the red lines imposed. The Irish Border being a prime example.

Moe_The_Bartender

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I'm suprised that people still believe the 4 pillars to be negotiable. There are most certainly not. In addition they form the basis of the Brussels bureaucrats negotiating position and likewise the red lines imposed. The Irish Border being a prime example.

There seems to have been a significant shift in the EU's position on the Irish border this week. Since Margaritis Schinas let the cat out of the bag this week saying that a no deal would result in a hard border causing Leo Varadkar to blow a gasket, Michel Barnier said:

“If we’re facing a no-deal, we will, together with Ireland and the UK, have to find a way to carry out checks,” he told EU employers and trade union representatives on Wednesday.

“That will be something that we owe to consumers to protect consumers and companies within the single market.So, we’ll find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border.”

We would be obliged to carry out controls on goods arriving in the Republic of Ireland. My team have worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised, which will be useful in all circumstances.”

Now if my memory serves me correctly, that is exactly what the UK proposed over a year ago at which time Barnier dismissed it as magical thinking. This only seems to underline the suspicion that the EU have been trying all along to use the border as a bargaining chip without giving a stuff about the GFA.

Herzlos

He's still talking about a border, but is just trying to find a way to keep it flowing smoothly and without the compulsory stops. It'd still likely violate the GFA, but it'll be blown apart come a WTO Brexit anyway.


Mays proposals were at one time a promise to cover each others duty income, and some 'invisible' tech border. This sounds like the latter but will still clearly be a border.

movilogo wrote: »

Not a problem really - people can get visa/permit - effectively how non-EU nationals current enter UK. Holiday/short business travel can continue to be visa free.

Perfect if there's no risk of corruption. Trying to provide a good or service in competition to an officials brothers company? Suddenly your permits start getting declined. Already have a big customer and need a visa? Oh you need it to be quick? It's normally 4 weeks but if you....



The 4 freedoms weren't created and tied to be cruel on the Brexiteers - it's there to provide a level playing field that allows all businesses to operate fairly and freely.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I'm suprised that people still believe the 4 pillars to be negotiable. There are most certainly not. In addition they form the basis of the Brussels bureaucrats negotiating position and likewise the red lines imposed. The Irish Border being a prime example.

The 4 freedoms are negotiable, if you believe that they need us more than we need them, and shouting already rejected demands in the hope that the other party will blink first is a valid strategy.


The Turkey model has already been floated and rejected by Leavers - that's a Customs Union which allows free movement of goods but only some rule taking and no movement of people. It does rule out the ability to form FTAs on our own, but forming our own trade deals is mutually exclusive with seamless trade with the EU, unless we ensure regulatory compliance, which essentially ties us into the CU and ECJ anyway.


There's no way round it, so Leavers need to decide which of the options they want, and who they want to upset.

Arklight

Herzlos wrote: »

The 4 freedoms are negotiable, if you believe that they need us more than we need them, and shouting already rejected demands in the hope that the other party will blink first is a valid strategy.


The Turkey model has already been floated and rejected by Leavers - that's a Customs Union which allows free movement of goods but only some rule taking and no movement of people. It does rule out the ability to form FTAs on our own, but forming our own trade deals is mutually exclusive with seamless trade with the EU, unless we ensure regulatory compliance, which essentially ties us into the CU and ECJ anyway.


There's no way round it, so Leavers need to decide which of the options they want, and who they want to upset.

Which of course works both ways. Turkish students need visas for even short study trips, which are often not granted.

I know the average Leaver can't understand why anyone would ever want to leave the country of their ancestral heritage or what the benefit would be, but to some people its important.

Herzlos

I think they can understand it, but there's this phenomenon that Brits moving abroad are ex-pats whilst foreigners living here are migrants and that one of those things is somehow automatically bad.