Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

BobQ

Herzlos wrote: »

The Turkey model has already been floated and rejected by Leavers - that's a Customs Union which allows free movement of goods but only some rule taking and no movement of people. .

But didn't BoJo say that there 93m Turkiish Nationals just waiting to enter the UK if we remained? Now he denies it.

BobQ

Arklight wrote: »

As Herzlos said, that isn't an option.

There seems to be a general misunderstanding among Brexiters that making a post Brexit deal isn't simply the UK deciding what it will have and telling Europe. Europe has to agree to it as well.

Despite the Brexiter's promises we've failed to make any inroads at all into splitting the EU voice. They speak as a bloc. A bloc that is much bigger, richer, and more powerful than we are.

90% of them couldn't care less about the problems we'll suffer with Dover and the NI border, either.

Some hard line Brexiteers do not even understand the implications of their policies. James Delingpole for example

Asked by Andrew Neil if he actually understood what he thought trading on WTO terms actually means, he showed that he did not have a clue.

Neil asked him what impact a 40% tariff on British Lamb farmers who export 50% of our lamb to France

Delingpoles said "its a hit worth taking" as he showed he did not care about jobs. He finally confessed that he had no idea how the WTO terms work.

https://www.indy100.com/article/james-delingpole-brexit-no-deal-this-week-watch-video-8745681

or the full version (14m in)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0c13ylb/this-week-24012019

No deal is so simple when you play fast and loose with people's jobs.

In contrast the likes of Mogg and Fox know very well the implications of WTO terms but disinguously refuse to explain them to the public.

BobQ

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

There seems to have been a significant shift in the EU's position on the Irish border this week. Since Margaritis Schinas let the cat out of the bag this week saying that a no deal would result in a hard border causing Leo Varadkar to blow a gasket, Michel Barnier said:

“If we’re facing a no-deal, we will, together with Ireland and the UK, have to find a way to carry out checks,” he told EU employers and trade union representatives on Wednesday.

“That will be something that we owe to consumers to protect consumers and companies within the single market.So, we’ll find an operational way of carrying out checks and controls without putting back in place a border.”

We would be obliged to carry out controls on goods arriving in the Republic of Ireland. My team have worked hard to study how controls can be made paperless or decentralised, which will be useful in all circumstances.”

Now if my memory serves me correctly, that is exactly what the UK proposed over a year ago at which time Barnier dismissed it as magical thinking. This only seems to underline the suspicion that the EU have been trying all along to use the border as a bargaining chip without giving a stuff about the GFA.

Note he was just talking about goods (80% of our exports are services) and putting in place checks is just a way to keep the imports flowing. That does not cover the tariffs that would be applied at the border and the impact that has on jobs.

BobQ

Herzlos wrote: »

He's still talking about a border, but is just trying to find a way to keep it flowing smoothly and without the compulsory stops. It'd still likely violate the GFA, but it'll be blown apart come a WTO Brexit anyway.


Mays proposals were at one time a promise to cover each others duty income, and some 'invisible' tech border. This sounds like the latter but will still clearly be a border.

.

Not sure how this would help. More importantly it would breach WTO rules which say you have to treat all nations trading on WTO terms the same. So a fudge in Ireland involving minimal checks would need to be done for all other nations. In the UK case, hardly the best way to negotiate trade deals (breaking international trade rules).

Thrugelmir

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

There seems to have been a significant shift in the EU's position on the Irish border this week. Since Margaritis Schinas let the cat out of the bag this week saying that a no deal would result in a hard border causing Leo Varadkar to blow a gasket, Michel Barnier said:

Barnier is the monkey not the organ grinder.

Arklight

Leo Varadkar raises spectre of troops back on the border if "Brexit goes very wrong."

Hard to imagine how much more wrong it could go at the moment.

The EU won't leave Ireland swinging so it will be down to the UK to capitulate. One solution would be for NI to become an EU protectorate where NI citizens retain their British citizenship (if they want it) and it remains the only part of the EU that British citizens retain free movement to, but with a hard border over the Irish Sea and soft passport and goods checks in case Brits try and get into Europe.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-irish-varadkar-troops-border-uk-eu-a8746871.html

Moe_The_Bartender

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Barnier is the monkey not the organ grinder.

Indeed. He can't open his mouth without his masters' permission.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Leo Varadkar raises spectre of troops back on the border if "Brexit goes very wrong."

Hard to imagine how much more wrong it could go at the moment.

The EU won't leave Ireland swinging so it will be down to the UK to capitulate. One solution would be for NI to become an EU protectorate where NI citizens retain their British citizenship (if they want it) and it remains the only part of the EU that British citizens retain free movement to, but with a hard border over the Irish Sea and soft passport and goods checks in case Brits try and get into Europe.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-irish-varadkar-troops-border-uk-eu-a8746871.html

Wow! Project Fear on steroids. Varadkar has finally realised how far he's overstepped the mark and is now terrified that his EU puppet masters will hang him out to dry. Coveney wants his job and is laughing up his sleeve.

Who dreamed up the ludicrous idea that NI could become an EU protectorate? Now that would need troops in the streets. Someone needs to stop smoking dope.

gfplux

A number of Brexiters appear to feel that their red lines are ending freedom of movement from and to the EU.
The other is the ability for Britain to negotiate trade agreements with other country’s.
Perhaps they should be told that a number of those potential new deals might mean lowering the present barriers to immigrants from those countrys.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

A number of Brexiters appear to feel that their red lines are ending freedom of movement from and to the EU.
The other is the ability for Britain to negotiate trade agreements with other country’s.
Perhaps they should be told that a number of those potential new deals might mean lowering the present barriers to immigrants from those countrys.

Many remainers too wanted restrictions on free movement. David Cameron for one.

Frankly, I do not care where people come from as long as they make a positive contribution to the UK economy and I am not known as a remainer.