Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Lies with the people. Doesn't require the elite to tell them what to do. Which in part is perhaps the problem lies. The establishment no longer represents the people. Clone politicians that tell rather than reflect.

Hows that going to come about, when we've handed the elite more power and given away lots of rights for the normal person?

Herzlos

wunferall wrote: »

If the EU really want their £39 billion, a deal will be reached.

Why are you so sure the EU will save over a paltry £39bn? It's like 27% of their annual budget, and not all of their costs will be be borne in a single year. They'll notice the missing money but it's not got them over a barrel by any means.

To put it in context, the EU has aboit €154bn in assets, of which €42bn is in cash. If they were stuck they could cover our shortfall without having to sell anything.

For brexit to be a success, we need to be credible and reliable on the world stage, and that will really suffer if we renege on contractual debts. The EU could also insist on the payment before talking about a future deal, and do we really want to stay on WTO over £39bn? Brexit has already cost us more than that. It's insignificant.

BobQ

kabayiri wrote: »

Where is the vision for UK going forward?

I think populism only really sets in when people feel like we are drifting.

Is this place just becoming a bargain basement free for all?

The vision is in ministers who have planned a nodeal Brexit right down to the point where they are now desperately recruiting contractors without the required skills to do jobs they have not properly defined in preparation for the mess that is to follow.

National Audit Reports 2 years from now will show what a mess this is going to be.

Arklight

I've rarely seen a country so uniquely unprepared for such an enormous, and self inflicted, threat.

I presume Theresa May didn't start her dissertation until the night before it was due in, and thinks that this is how you do things.

Moby

wunferall wrote: »

It looks like Barmier is beginning to realise that a compromise is needed if the EU aren't to see a no-deal Brexit ..... and the possible loss of their much-needed £39 billion.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barnier/eu-ready-to-give-britain-more-guarantees-backstop-is-temporary-barnier-idUKKCN1QI5JU

I think hard brexiteers realise they are not going to get what they want.....i.e we leave without a deal....so they are going to hold their noses and are reluctantly going to vote for May's deal.

May's deal satisfies no-one I know. It's a compromise if you are kind and a fudge if you are hard headed. We will lose sovereignty because we will still be subject to the common rule book of the EU, re. standards and regulations, we will pay for access to the EU market while having no voting rights and we will have no say over future policy!

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

I think hard brexiteers realise they are not going to get what they want.....i.e we leave without a deal....so they are going to hold their noses and are reluctantly going to vote for May's deal.

May's deal satisfies no-one I know. It's a compromise if you are kind and a fudge if you are hard headed. We will lose sovereignty because we will still be subject to the common rule book of the EU, re. standards and regulations, we will pay for access to the EU market while having no voting rights and we will have no say over future policy!

Yep.
I think the calculation has been made by the ERG types that even BRINO is preferable to the risk of losing out on Brexit completely.
TM’s deal will probably cook the goose of the naysayers who say that the U.K. will struggle to even exist outside the EU, and perversely make the thought of a complete break proper Brexit more palatable to the electorate, especially if life outside is seen to be surprisingly economically benign as will be the case.
TM’s deal could be Brexit ‘basecamp’ before a final summit climb to freedom in the years ahead.

Brown_Bear

sevenhills wrote: »

More nationalistic means to me less informed about current affairs, so the only argument that can be had is a nationalist one.
Is this because people watch TV and read mainstream media less, more influence from social media and just everything is dumbed down?
For instance, how many people now watch the 9pm/10pm news?

I think you're right that social media is having a larger influence.
But the influence of newspapers will be different to that of the BBC.

I think the BBC is actually quite fair and balanced when it comes to Brexit.
But the BBC does now produce a lot more social liberal propaganda than it used to. It's website is about 20pc propaganda these days. Which is a shame, because it does have some good well informed articles too.

wunferall

Moby wrote: »

I think hard brexiteers realise they are not going to get what they want.....i.e we leave without a deal....so they are going to hold their noses and are reluctantly going to vote for May's deal.

May's deal satisfies no-one I know. It's a compromise if you are kind and a fudge if you are hard headed. We will lose sovereignty because we will still be subject to the common rule book of the EU, re. standards and regulations, we will pay for access to the EU market while having no voting rights and we will have no say over future policy!

You must show us which "hard brexiteers" have said they want a no-deal Brexit?
None I have seen.
Could you please at least try to understand the vast difference between saying what the country could do and what is wanted?
Ta.

wunferall

Brown_Bear wrote: »

I think you're right that social media is having a larger influence.
But the influence of newspapers will be different to that of the BBC.

I think the BBC is actually quite fair and balanced when it comes to Brexit.
But the BBC does now produce a lot more social liberal propaganda than it used to. It's website is about 20pc propaganda these days. Which is a shame, because it does have some good well informed articles too.

There are a huge number who disagree with that opinion, to the extent that there's even a website devoted to the BBC's bias.
There has been so much said about the BBC's very obvious anti-Brexit bias that it's difficult to know where to begin (and in fairness it would be better discussed in a separate thread) so I will just link the site I mention.
http://bbccomplaints.com/

Brown_Bear

Tromking wrote: »

Yep.
I think the calculation has been made by the ERG types that even BRINO is preferable to the risk of losing out on Brexit completely.
.

You could be right.
It will be either May's deal or extension / delay.

If there's a delay and then a recession, general election or some other event comes along before Brexit - maybe that will influence things?