Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

kabayiri

Oh look, a Brexit bribery fund :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47435565

I suggested that this might be the case. The only way that the poorer regions get to be heard is by kicking up a fuss, or when local votes need to be bought in some fashion.

Perhaps this was what the 'Brexit dividend' actually meant?

Herzlos

The irony being they'll get a fraction of the funding they'd have got from staying in the EU.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

The US laugh about the UKs special relationship. It means nothing to them in practical terms.
You've seen what the US wants from a UK trade deal, are you happy with those concession? What do you think we can counter offer?




So what do you think we'd be a to do differently? Take a deal with high tariffs on cars or food?

Why would we need a trade deal with the US? They are our biggest trading partner outside the EU and we trade on WTO terms with them. If there’s no problem, why try to fix it?

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

The irony being they'll get a fraction of the funding they'd have got from staying in the EU.

Evidence please.

movilogo

I think hard brexiteers realise they are not going to get what they want.....i.e we leave without a deal....so they are going to hold their noses and are reluctantly going to vote for May's deal.

If that indeed happens, it originates from the mindset "if you don't give me what I want, I'll make sure you won't get what you want".

Remainers want to stay,Leaves want to leave. If Remaining MPs are forcing Leaving MPs to remain, then Leave suppoting MPs have no choice but to go for a "Remain minus" option.

Still, TM's WA has a silver linging (depending on which side of the fence you sit). If whatever fudged manner UK leaves EU, it is still considered as leaving EU.

As long as UK effectively stays in EU, people won't see any economic impact at all and this might be seen as "hey we half left EU with no impact - so better leave EU fully now".

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

Evidence please.

The EU doesn't know local priorities.

It never has.

The funny thing is, the SNP frequently moan about how Westminster doesn't reflect the needs of Scotland, and yet believes that Brussels does ! :rotfl:

Arklight

cogito wrote: »

Why would we need a trade deal with the US? They are our biggest trading partner outside the EU and we trade on WTO terms with them. If there’s no problem, why try to fix it?

You tell us. It's Brexiters that have spent two year emptily pretending that the rest of the world is lining up to sign preferential trade deals with us when we leave the frictionless EU market.

Yes, you'll still be able to buy things from the US, and vice versa. And you'll still have to pay import duty and VAT on it when it arrives.

That is why Trump is right and we're not going to do a trade deal with the US. Britain will be technically independent to sign trade deals but functionally unable to negotiate them. May's best chance of getting one with Trump is to smuggle herself into the one he might end up negotiating with Brussels. That would nicely summarise the pitiful idiocy of what we're doing.

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/11/27/for-once-trump-is-right-there-ll-be-no-uk-us-trade-deal

fatbeetle

Meanwhile, back in the Eurozone...

Italy’s youth unemployment rate has climbed to above Spain’s for the first time in more than a decade.

The proportion of Italy’s youth not in work rose to 33 per cent in January from 32.8 per cent in December and 32.6 per cent in January 2018. The country now has the second largest unemployment rate in the EU, after Greece.

Trade tensions, the threat of a hard Brexit and weaker emerging markets growth have all played a part in dampening Germany's nine-year-long economic upswing. 2018 was a trying year for the world's third-largest exporter, as Germany saw its much-celebrated trade surplus shrink. With imports growing faster than exports, the impact of the trade disputes between the US and both China and the European Union has been widely felt by industry leaders.

Recently released figures also cast large shadows over Germany's formidable manufacturing sector, with industrial output much lower than expected. In November, industrial output fell by 1.9%, while the year-on-year decline was 4.7%. These figures, the worst since the end of the 2008 crisis, are understandably giving rise to fears among investors and analysts of a nearing recession.

The European Commission chiefs scolded France over its economic “vulnerabilities,” which it said were the result of a “high public debt and low competitiveness”. The scathing comments of the Commission, which is in charge of monitoring the soundness of economic policies of European countries, came in a report which called for steps to improve French public finances. Paris insists the situation is only temporary but Brussels has ordered for the problems to be dealt with as soon as possible.

Arklight

fatbeetle wrote: »

Meanwhile, back in the Eurozone...

Yep, Brexit is bad for everyone. Well done for noticing.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

The US laugh about the UKs special relationship. It means nothing to them in practical terms.
You've seen what the US wants from a UK trade deal, are you happy with those concession? What do you think we can counter offer?
...

Answer : an union with the USA.

We already share so much on a corporate level, and a security level.

Makes sense long term.