If there is a second referendum ...

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

On the other side, I happily accept that Corbyn wants more fairness, I just feel that he lacks the tools and support to deliver.

Momentum doesn't appear to be working in a fair manner at constituency level. Seems determined to eradicate those within the party holding alternative views.

OldMusicGuy

Meanwhile, back in Brexitland, it seems like May is still pushing her approach despite negative reports emerging yesterday and this morning. I heard Steven Kinnock on Radio 4 suggesting that a soft, Norway-style Brexit would get enough cross-party support in Parliament to get through.

So maybe unless the leavers get behind May's approach, Parliament will go for a soft Brexit or a second referendum. If Parliament votes for a soft Brexit it will be able to claim it is delivering on the referendum, because we will no longer be an EU member state and thus will have "left the EU".

Interesting times ahead.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

The tax cuts for the rich are the cause, outside of the EU the conservatives want to make the country a tax haven.

Care to substantiate this. Or is it yet another social media story simply doing the rounds.

Thrugelmir

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

Meanwhile, back in Brexitland, it seems like May is still pushing her approach despite negative reports emerging yesterday and this morning. I heard Steven Kinnock on Radio 4 suggesting that a soft, Norway-style Brexit would get enough cross-party support in Parliament to get through.

Article 112 only provides a break. Not the solution to FoM. There'll be no long term solution as long as the UK provides jobs, homes and money to much of the rest of Europe.

OldMusicGuy

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Article 112 only provides a break. Not the solution to FoM. There'll be no long term solution as long as the UK provides jobs, homes and money to much of the rest of Europe.

He's still pushing it as a soft Brexit. Which probably wouldn't be what most leavers would want. He seems to think there is a way of getting controlled migration, I couldn't say if his view of article 112/113 is right or not (sorry). He does seem to be advocating the Labour approach (which not many Labour politicians are doing....).

qwert_yuiop

AFF8879 wrote: »

Wasn’t it Churchill who said something along the lines of “if you’re young and not a liberal; you’re heartless; if you’re older and not a conservative; you’re ignorant”

It’s been attributed to Bismarck, Bertrand Russell and GB Shaw among others.

Thrugelmir

OldMusicGuy wrote: »

He's still pushing it as a soft Brexit. Which probably wouldn't be what most leavers would want. He seems to think there is a way of getting controlled migration, I couldn't say if his view of article 112/113 is right or not (sorry). He does seem to be advocating the Labour approach (which not many Labour politicians are doing....).

At least it's cross party discussion. Something which has been sadly lacking. For all this talk of being May's deal. There's been little else in the way of substantive alternative input. Could well be the case that this option has already been dismissed as unworkable. The EU themselves not wishing to offer an open ended committment. That any other member state could enact likewise. Back to the cherry picking scenarios of months ago.

OldMusicGuy

Thrugelmir wrote: »

At least it's cross party discussion. Something which has been sadly lacking. For all this talk of being May's deal. There's been little else in the way of substantive alternative input.

Agree totally, the quality of debate and thought going into alternatives is shockingly bad.

I don't think the Labour approach has been tested in any way. Starmer constantly goes on about "Labour could get a better deal" without getting into specifics, and sadly the commentators never grill him on it. At least Kinnock is getting a bit more open about an alternative way forward.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

If that was really the case, then we'd have had an almost 200 year uninterrupted run of the conservative party leading the country.

The birth rate isn't constant, so at various times there are more or less young people vs gammon..

wunferall

"If there is a second referendum ..." ye gods, whatever happened to common sense?

There won't be enough time for another referendum even if it was agreed that one was wanted.
Parliament closes next Friday, 21st December & returns 8th January.
Question testing alone takes 12 weeks.
Oops!
Time's up.

Both sides have to agree an extension to Article 50 (do you honestly believe that all 27 EU countries will quickly agree?) but in two years they haven't agreed much, so that looks unlikely.
Also we know that the EU are so sure of themselves that they don't think that we would just leave so they would probably refuse in the mistaken hope that the UK stays.
The following is where that mistaken EU hope falls down.

The UK could (under certain circumstances, we are told) revoke it's Article 50 withdrawal.
That is unlikely because the conditions for doing so clearly state that withdrawal must be "“unequivocal and unconditional” - which it cannot be unless either a referendum or a new bill through the HoP authorises this to be the case and again as earlier there is no longer sufficient time.
Even the HoP couldn't say that Article 50 would be unconditionally withdrawn without a referendum - and here we are again back at the top of this post.

So as you can see it's a Catch22-type situation.
Which means that it looks very much like a no deal Brexit.






http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/05/how-long-would-it-take-to-hold-a-second-referendum-on-brexit/