If there is a second referendum ...

Herzlos

BLB53 wrote: »

Demonstrates that the Treasury/BofE fear campaign (Mark 2) has worked eh?

If trading on WTO rules is so ruinous, USA should be near collapse by now. It has successfully traded with the EU on this basis for many years as do many large countries around the world.

The US and other large countries don't have economies that are reliant on single market access.

No-one has ever said WTO doesn't work, but it doesn't work for us right now unless we make major changes, such as dropping just in time manufacturing and euro clearing banking.

People get by without running water and have done for millennia but that doesn't mean it wouldn't suck to go back to.

Lungboy

Indeed, it's the switching to WTO overnight that will cause the problems .

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
No-one has ever said WTO doesn't work, but it doesn't work for us right now unless we make major changes, such as dropping just in time manufacturing and euro clearing banking.
...

The JIT argument is over played. Very few firms run a true JIT system.

One thing the UK does have now is a lot more warehousing space. Holding WIP is a valid option.

BLB53

No-one has ever said WTO doesn't work, but it doesn't work for us right now unless we make major changes,

Well those in charge should be getting on with those changes because it's obvious the PMs deal is not acceptable and we should therefore leave on WTO rules if the 2016 vote is to be respected as everyone says it must be.

The longer the Government dithers and delays, the more chaos it creates but we will be leaving at the end of the day, whatever it may take.

OldMusicGuy

kabayiri wrote: »

T
One thing the UK does have now is a lot more warehousing space. Holding WIP is a valid option.

The trouble is that it hurts your cash flow. That's why firms will need time to adjust. Over time they will adjust to the new reality but do you know how many firms would face cash flow difficulties if they had to sit on bigger quantities of WIP at very short notice? I don't think anyone does which is why I favour a phased approach rather than a crash out approach.

I agree that the negatives are overplayed but you are also guilty of making broad contrary statements with no supporting evidence. How many is "very few firms"? What percentage of GDP are they? How many jobs would be lost if those companies had to lay people off to reduce their outgoings in the short term?

Zero_Gravitas

kabayiri wrote: »

The JIT argument is over played. Very few firms run a true JIT system.

One thing the UK does have now is a lot more warehousing space. Holding WIP is a valid option.

Only if you think that having to build a warehouse the size of 42 football pitches is “overplaying”:

https://infacts.org/supply-chain-reaction-to-brexit-will-see-jobs-leave-uk/

And where is all this warehousing? It’s all already full or in the wrong places:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46356056

Yet again, leavers are taking the General Melchett approach to Brexit:
“A total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through”

LHW99

That is unlikely because the conditions for doing so clearly state that withdrawal must be "“unequivocal and unconditional”

Also, presumably, there would have to be the condition that we could have back all our opt-outs

Zero_Gravitas

LHW99 wrote: »

Also, presumably, there would have to be the condition that we could have back all our opt-outs

Which is exactly what the ECJ ruling said on Monday:

https://news.sky.com/story/european-court-of-justice-rules-uk-can-unilaterally-revoke-article-50-and-halt-brexit-11576865

ukcarper

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Which is exactly what the ECJ ruling said on Monday:

https://news.sky.com/story/european-court-of-justice-rules-uk-can-unilaterally-revoke-article-50-and-halt-brexit-11576865

But as our position would be weakened and many EU states do not want us to have them how long will be able to hold on to them.

Zero_Gravitas

ukcarper wrote: »

But as our position would be weakened and many EU states do not want us to have them how long will be able to hold on to them.

Which is something leavers might have wanted to think about before they embarked on this national act of self-harm.