Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

kabayiri

I know a company which produces trading software; the kind of thing which will be important if we have a WTO type relationship to implement.

They have had some interesting enquiries recently.

I wouldn't rule out the WTO exit route personally. It would mean a period of change, but there's an opportunity to make a lot of money too.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
I'd rather have a no deal brexit than Mays deal. I actually think it's the only way to settle the matter within the next decade or 2.

A No Deal Brexit does not preclude further talks with the EU.

Delays at Calais could be oversold. We typically only check between 2-4% of goods arriving under WTO terms. This Xmas, we will see a huge amount of goods arriving from the likes of China. The vast majority of this flows freely.

kabayiri

buglawton wrote: »

Telegraph reports today that there's street talk among the Paris yellow vesters of demanding a Frexit. Maybe the penny's about to drop that France's moribund economy just might be linked with it's EU, Euro and Schengen membership.

Macron was seen as the new hope for liberal politics at one time.

Now his rating is just 18% in some polls.

The street riots could be just noise though. Whether it filters through to the upcoming EU elections will be interesting.

The yellow vest symbolism is quite clever. It reminds me of V for Vendetta.

Lungboy

Meaningful Vote expected to be delayed.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Personally, I wouldn't take much notice of the political views of a bunch of violent thugs setting fire to cars, throwing missiles at police, smashing up restaurants and burning trees.

You would if they were on the left.

BucksLady

I think that's quite likely. However, negotiating a better deal with the EU is going to be problematic - they've already said ''this is it'' - or are they calling our bluff? I've a feeling they might be - but what do I know

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

A No Deal Brexit does not preclude further talks with the EU

I think WTO would be good for the EU negotiations, it gives us a frame of reference and focuses politicians minds. The EU would have no obligation under A50 to negotiate with us though.

Delays at Calais could be oversold. We typically only check between 2-4% of goods arriving under WTO terms. This Xmas, we will see a huge amount of goods arriving from the likes of China. The vast majority of this flows freely.

About half our trade is WTO so we'd be looking at doubling the trade that needs inspected. Assuming everyone gets the paperwork correct from the start we're either doubling the work or reducing the percentage. I'm pretty confident things will settle down quickly. I still wouldn't like to rely on it for anything JIT.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I think WTO would be good for the EU negotiations, it gives us a frame of reference and focuses politicians minds. The EU would have no obligation under A50 to negotiate with us though.

...

We are frequently told it's a global world.

Well, time to prove it then. Argentina is just one of a number of countries which would happily sell us more food stuffs.

The Food lobby is one of the most vocal within the EU. Let's see if they are happy to swap principals for loss of food markets.

buglawton

Arklight wrote: »

Personally, I wouldn't take much notice of the political views of a bunch of violent thugs setting fire to cars, throwing missiles at police, smashing up restaurants and burning trees.

Nor would I. I would take notice of the yellow vesters interviews I've seen/heard/read. Views of the 99% who are peaceful albeit disruptive protesters. They seem to be the just-managings from the whole age range spectrum.

buglawton

Lungboy wrote: »

Meaningful Vote expected to be delayed.

Yeah, I suspected this was going to happen as per my post yesterday, and Paddypower was offering odds on every possible scenario except shunt the Commons vote.
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