Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
Goodbye manufacturing and fresh exports.

Why has it taken you 30 years to suddenly worry about manufacturing?

It all sounds a bit hollow to me. Every year millions of UK consumers will heartily consume new iPhones and iPads and iMacs etc without a care in the world as to their production source.

The EU is not going to save manufacturing in the EU zone. The decline will continue.

kabayiri

BenjaG wrote: »

...
Worse, the UK has only 227 battle tanks while Russia has a hundred times as many: 22,700! Germany has 2,500 battle tanks, France 527, Italy 480, Spain 552, Poland 1,000 etc.
...

Unless those Russian tanks are new fangled floating tanks they would have to trundle all the way across Western Europe to reach the UK.

Russia knows better than most what can happen to long supply lines.

I was surprised how small Russian GDP is. It's arguably more cost effective for them to exercise so called soft power nowadays.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tariffs_e/tariffs_e.htm






Which assertions in particular are you looking for?

We were talking about fish specifically.

andrewf75

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

As andrewf says, "Countries gradually develop trade links and reduce barriers" well, the UK already has links in place and it can soon remove the barriers the EU has put in place as part of their protectionist stance.
:j

but at the expense of barriers between the UK and all its near neighbours accounting for half its trade. I accept the opportunities, but the cost is very high.
And why would we want to remove those EU barriers anyway? They are on things like food standards.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Matt_L wrote: »

So you believe that because of a 4% tariff on lobster those in the EU that can afford to eat fresh lobster will just stop eating it..

It's not a 4% tariff on Lobster. It's a 15% tariff, plus additional costs in customs clearance versus zero today, so all in around 20% more in costs for UK exporters. Which immediately makes our Lobsters uncompetitive and starts putting Lobster fishermen and processors out of business.

Same thing applies to Lamb farmers, with 40% tariffs, and dozens of other sectors employing hundreds of thousands of people.

That average tariffs on other goods are lower, say the 4% figure quoted earlier in the thread, does not help the hundreds of thousands of people who lose their jobs because some tariffs are cripplingly high.

I could also be wrong here but it is my understanding that its more like 40% we export to the EU and thats falling every year, our exports to the rest of the world are growing every year.

You are wrong.

London's place as a Gold Bullion vault storage centre with giant inflows and outflows skews the figures by about 5%.

When that skew is removed 50% of UK goods are exported to the EU, and another 15% to countries that the EU has a FTA with.

So 65% of UK exports are reliant on our membership of the EU.

Also, our exports to the EU are not falling, they're increasing, but exports to other countries (many that the EU has a FTA with) are increasing more, so the percentages are changing but exports to both the EU and non-EU are increasing.

Matt_L

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's not a 4% tariff on Lobster. It's a 15% tariff, plus additional costs in customs clearance versus zero today, so all in around 20% more in costs for UK exporters. Which immediately makes our Lobsters uncompetitive and starts putting Lobster fishermen and processors out of business.

Same thing applies to Lamb farmers, with 40% tariffs, and dozens of other sectors employing hundreds of thousands of people.

That average tariffs on other goods are lower, say the 4% figure quoted earlier in the thread, does not help the hundreds of thousands of people who lose their jobs because some tariffs are cripplingly high.



You are wrong.

London's place as a Gold Bullion vault storage centre with giant inflows and outflows skews the figures by about 5%.

When that skew is removed 50% of UK goods are exported to the EU, and another 15% to countries that the EU has a FTA with.

So 65% of UK exports are reliant on our membership of the EU.

Also, our exports to the EU are not falling, they're increasing, but exports to other countries (many that the EU has a FTA with) are increasing more, so the percentages are changing but exports to both the EU and non-EU are increasing.

So im going to presume that the same can be said for the foods we import from the EU which is around 30% of all we consume.

Whats stopping the EU and UK agreeing that on the 30th of March next year the tariff's would be 0%?

BTW im not wrong...

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So a 4% average tariff on all goods doesn't help the thousands of lobster fishermen put out of business overnight by the much larger crippling tariffs on live seafood.

What?

There are fewer than 10000 full time fishermen working in the UK. Less than 1% of the total UK catch by weight is lobsters.

So if we were to say that there are no more than 100 fishermen in the UK exclusively catching lobsters (1% of 10000), how is it possible for thousands of them to be put out of business?

A_Pandiculation

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's not a 4% tariff on Lobster. It's a 15% tariff, plus additional costs in customs clearance versus zero today, so all in around 20% more in costs for UK exporters.

No it isn't, and if your first paragraph is wrong why should I bother reading the rest never mind believe it.

EU Tariffs on Lobster: Frozen in shell whole 6%; Live 8%

Oh and it's consumers that pay the tariffs in higher prices not exporters.
It's good to see you have decided to worry about UK fishing now though at last. After the EU's CFP has decimated the UK fleet, with an average of 4 boats each and every week over the last 25 years being lost from the UK fishing fleet.


http://www.ccfi.ca/pdf/Lobster/4.EU%20Market.pdf

Lungboy

That appears to be the Canadian tariffs on lobster with the EU, not WTO tariffs?

Lungboy

Well that's a bit awkward.