Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Matt_L

Lungboy wrote: »

If we go No Deal and end up on WTO rules they wouldn't be punitive but they'd be crippling.

How so? I don't understand what would make them crippling?

Are you saying that anything we sell them they'd put huge tariffs on and also anything we buy from them??

Help me out so I can better understand...

cogito

Lungboy wrote: »

If we go No Deal and end up on WTO rules they wouldn't be punitive but they'd be crippling.

On average about 4%. In what way is that crippling?

zagubov

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Providing the Spanish retain the right to fish the waters of course. Nothing's for free.

Which is why they never objected in the first place.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

On average about 4%. In what way is that crippling?

10% on cars, up to 40% on some agricultural goods.

Absolutely crippling to large sectors of the UK economy employing hundreds of thousands of people.

There's a reason the head of Economists for Brexit said that leaving the EU would result in the loss of most manufacturing in the UK.

Lungboy

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

10% on cars, up to 40% on some agricultural goods.

Absolutely crippling to large sectors of the UK economy employing hundreds of thousands of people.

There's a reason the head of Economists for Brexit said that leaving the EU would result in the loss of most manufacturing in the UK.

More than even 40% on some agricultural produce

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

10% on cars, up to 40% on some agricultural goods.

Absolutely crippling to large sectors of the UK economy employing hundreds of thousands of people.

There's a reason the head of Economists for Brexit said that leaving the EU would result in the loss of most manufacturing in the UK.

Tariffs work both ways, you know.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

cogito wrote: »

Tariffs work both ways, you know.

Asymmetrically.

As just one of dozens of examples, most Lobsters and Langoustine caught in UK waters are from small inshore vessels and around 80% are live exported to continental Europe.

There's zero chance the UK population will suddenly develop a taste for quaffing enough Champagne and Lobster to make up the gap.

And there are no other major markets close enough to export live seafood to.

So a 4% average tariff on all goods doesn't help the thousands of lobster fishermen put out of business overnight by the much larger crippling tariffs on live seafood.

Multiply that up across dozens of industries and you've got major social unrest on your hands within weeks...

The EU is 50% of our exports. We are just 7% of their exports.

We were always the weaker party in these negotiations.

There is no Brexit deal as good as the one we have today.

Thrugelmir

Lungboy wrote: »

If we go No Deal and end up on WTO rules they wouldn't be punitive but they'd be crippling.

Great for the Exchequer though. A way of redistributing wealth. The UK being service orientated economy doesn't impact exports so greatly. .

Herzlos

More money for the Exchequer means less money in peoples pockets, because the end user is going to be paying the tariffs. It may be stacked in that the higher earners spend money money and pay more VAT/Tariffs, but it's also going into the same pot that's largely neglecting everyone that isn't in London or rich. I honestly don't see increased tariffs making life any better than the "little people" who are going to get hammered on everything else.



So apparently "frictionless trade" isn't on the table for the future trading relationship. Looks like our arrangement is going to be closer to Canada+ than cake-and-eat-it.


Goodbye manufacturing and fresh exports.

Lungboy

cogito wrote: »

Tariffs work both ways, you know.

I'm sure our cheese industry will find that comforting when their exports disappear overnight.