Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

Hasn't Donald Trump made a big deal about not importing anything to the US?

Trump wants US companies to onshore jobs. Which by it's very nature would reduce imported product. Reducing US Corporate tax rates from high levels was part of this approach. The US like the UK runs a considerable trade deficit. In part more important than arguing over odd percentage points of GDP.

melanzana

I think the UK finally needs to realise that Hubris and a post colonial mentality will not butter any parsnips now.

The bottom line for me is that those opposed to the agreement need to set out IN FACTS what the outcome will be if that happens.

Silence, and such explanations will never happen now. Bluff and bluster is all I am hearing. Go on.... tell us what the benefits of leaving in a no deal situation are, because no one has told us yet.

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm responding to the fantasy that in the case of a WTO brexit we can seamlessly switch over to buy everything from elsewhere.

If we go WTO, we'll still mostly buy the same stuff from the same places, but anything coming through the EU will take longer to arrive, and anything not sourced in GBP will cost more.

The EU will see some drop in trade/profit but not enough to force them to cave in.
We'll see a huge drop in trade/profit and will likely just stubbornly hold out for as long as we can deny that actually, yes, being in the EU was pretty good.

So you you have no idea what will happen with the thousands of lorries loaded and on route to the UK...

Specifically which industries will see these huge drops in trade and profits??
What sum constitutes a huge profit loss, I want to know how much are we talking, as you seem to have the answer?

Herzlos

Matt_L wrote: »

So you you have no idea what will happen with the thousands of lorries loaded and on route to the UK...

Specifically which industries will see these huge drops in trade and profits??
What sum constitutes a huge profit loss, I want to know how much are we talking, as you seem to have the answer?

I have as many answers as you, but I'm just going by the logic.


I think there was talk about letting anything in-transit through to completion, to avoid folk caught out on Brexit day. Anyone else bringing anything into the UK that's not covered by a single market will need to be stopped at customs. That could take anything from seconds to hours, per vehicle, which will compound.


Delays in goods arriving, or an increase in costs of goods, will hurt any UK manufacturing that involves importing components from the EU. How much of an impact will depend on how much they import, and how price sensitive their customs are (i.e. a high end widget company that has 1% EU components can likely just add the cost increase on that 1% onto the retail price. However something that has 90% EU components and price sensitive customers will pay a lot more for the compoents but need to absorb the cost themselves.
Businesses that rely on just-in-time will need to spend a huge amount of warehousing for a few weeks buffer to prevent the factory line from stalling waiting for goods.



For huge volume stuff the costs might be high enough to justify investing in EU factories next time.

melanzana

It is all so easy to leave isn't it?

40 years of EU membership will not be unravelled quickly.

Well if it can be, would someone tell me how? I suppose the answer will be Hard Brexit, but no one and I mean no one has analyzed what that could mean either.

Sigh. Still waiting for a Hard Brexit explanation. And will probably be waiting forever.

Tromking

melanzana wrote: »

It is all so easy to leave isn't it?

40 years of EU membership will not be unravelled quickly.

Well if it can be, would someone tell me how? I suppose the answer will be Hard Brexit, but no one and I mean no one has analyzed what that could mean either.

Sigh. Still waiting for a Hard Brexit explanation. And will probably be waiting forever.

Why your personal need for constant explanation?
Plenty of info out there to suit anyone’s personal bias on the subject and all of it based mostly on conjecture.
I think hard Brexit economically will be consistent with a country leaving the EU that has 92% of its companies and 87% of its trade not trading in anyway with the EU bloc.
I’m happy to concede as a leave voter that a hard Brexit is a journey into the unknown as regards any short term ‘fall out’ economically and politically, I note however a reluctance on the other side to similarly concede that long term, Brexit and the undoubted flexibility it would give our politicians locally, could be the making of us.
Brexit in many ways can be boiled down to the fact that some of us are optimists in character and others pessimistic.

Lungboy

Flexibility for our politicians would be wonderful if it wasn't this shower of idiots we have in power you're handing it to. I have zero faith in them to make any worthwhile use of it, so the immediate damage of a No Deal isn't worth the risk.

Tromking

Lungboy wrote: »

Flexibility for our politicians would be wonderful if it wasn't this shower of idiots we have in power you're handing it to. I have zero faith in them to make any worthwhile use of it, so the immediate damage of a No Deal isn't worth the risk.

Like I said, you’re either in possession of a positive outlook or not.

Zero_Gravitas

Tromking wrote: »

Like I said, you’re either in possession of a positive outlook or not.

“If all else fails, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through”

General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett - 1917.

Tromking

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

“If all else fails, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through”

General Sir Anthony Cecil Hogmanay Melchett - 1917.

Those’ll be the ‘facts’ that may or may not be reailised in the event of hard Brexit. Stop dressing up conjecture as facts.