Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Iain_For

Lots of referral on here to the 'deal' that doesn't relate to reality. What is being discussed by the EU is the Withdrawal Agreement about how the UK separates itself from the European Union. There are just 3 points that need to be resolved:

1. Rights of citizens in the UK and the EU.
2. The financial settlement of the UK obligations.
3. A Permanent solution to avoiding a border on the island of Ireland.

That's it. Only in the annexes to the Withdrawal Agreement are there political declarations about our future relationship with the EU after 29/3/19, all of which are subject to future talks. The annexes include things like future customs arrangements and trade agreements that are not essential to an orderly departure of the UK from the EU and are subject to future discussions.

However, without a Withdrawal Agreement, the UK would be an international outcast as all existing treaties will simply cease to operate at 11pm on 29/3/19 as set out in Article 50. Even with one, it will take years to negotiate new trade deals.

Brexit isn't a cliff edge, it's an abyss in time that our politicians simply don't seem to understand.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

German - and other EU manufacturers were supposed to force Merkel et al into giving the UK all it wants.

Seems as the EU is even more politically entrenched than many imagined.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as the EU is even more politically entrenched than many imagined.

Hardly being too unreasonable given it is following the rules it has set out for all its other relationships with other countries, with the added complication of N Ireland.

The UK is the entity that has closed off most negotiating paths with its redlines.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

The UK is the entity that has closed off most negotiating paths with its redlines.

What is the EU's negotiating position? Other than say no to anything suggested.

Annexation of NI is non negotiable. A fully understandable position.

Seems as if making an example of the UK is key. Given the differing views across Europe.

Moby

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as the tory party is even more politically entrenched than many imagined.

Fixed it for you.

andrewf75

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What is the EU's negotiating position? Other than say no to anything suggested.

Its only no to proposals to “cherry pick” which has been made completely clear and the laughable thing is we’re not some third country who doesn’t understand – we’re currently in the club and they’re our rules! Utterly embarrassing that we don't seem to understand the rules of the single market that we helped create and have been part of for decades!

NI is a tricky issue, but *we* chose to leave. We need to make the choice, either NI is a special case with different rules or there is a border. You can’t just pretend these issues don’t exist. The problem is and has always been that the Brexit side won’t accept the implications of their vote, instead blaming others or pretending the problem doesn’t exist.

We chose to leave. Now we need to choose whether to stay close to the EU in the customs union/single market to avoid the Irish issues or the hard option and deal with the issues. Why do some even at this late stage still think that there is a way of avoiding this choice?!

fatbeetle

The EU knows that if the UK has an easy transition, other countries may use that as a blueprint to leave themselves.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What is the EU's negotiating position? Other than say no to anything suggested.

The EU has been very consistent in its position since the day of the Brexit vote: No cherry-picking.

The EU’s main foundation is the indivisibility of the four freedoms - the free movement of goods, capital, services and labour.

Chequers is cherry-picking as it pretends we can have free movement of goods + partial free movement on capital while opting out of the other 2 freedoms.

ukcarper

fatbeetle wrote: »

The EU knows that if the UK has an easy transition, other countries may use that as a blueprint to leave themselves.

This is the thing that amuses me the EU is best thing since sliced bread, but if one member decides it's not for them they must be punished to discourage other members leaving.

Herzlos

mayonnaise wrote: »

The EU has been very consistent in its position since the day of the Brexit vote: No cherry-picking.

They even drew us a handy chart comparing our options to Mays red flags. Their stance has been 100% clear and 0% open to debate from day 1.



May keeps offering things that we know it'll reject, and then Brexiteers are blaming the EU for not being willing to compromise.


Our options are simple: Pick an existing EU deal from any nation on the planet, use it. Tweak it later if we need to.


That means France, Norway, Iceland, Canada, South Korea, the "Anything but Arms" African countries, WTO, nothing.


The deal could be agreed in weeks when we take one of the items on the menu, instead of asking for things the waiter has already told us they don't have.



So that means: