Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

cogito

posh*spice wrote: »

So how might this play out?

The government announce that can't get a deal with the EU and the UK is preparing for WTO.

Do the Tory Remoaners bring down the government potentially letting in Labour?

Well actually, no. If a Tory member votes against the government in a no confidence vote, he or she is suspended by the whips. That means that they then will not be selected to stand in a resulting election. Turkeys don't generally vote for Christmas.

posh*spice

kabayiri wrote: »

You've got it, right there. It might not brand as UKIP, but a new right wing party would surely paint the mainstream parties as supine and essentially serving the EU before the British electorate.

The EU could be sewing the seeds of decades of disenchantment and bad blood between us and our European cousins. We have seen it before in the past.

So called FoM would count for nothing if the receiving country is openly hostile. This is already the case anyway in some places. No Muslim in Britain or France would entertain Hungary or Poland as a place to pursue a new life, whatever the high minded principles might suggest.

I haven't seen much of Henry Bolton the new leader of UKIP. The little I have seen - he seemed as good as Farage.

posh*spice

cogito wrote: »

Well actually, no. If a Tory member votes against the government in a no confidence vote, he or she is suspended by the whips. That means that they then will not be selected to stand in a resulting election. Turkeys don't generally vote for Christmas.

I don't know Ken Clarke might think it's worth it - he's old. Anna Soubry has threatened it in the past. Nicky Morgan probably too young. Dominic Grieve?

What about the Labour Brexiters - would they prop up the Tories? There are 10 of them.

Filo25

posh*spice wrote: »

I don't know Ken Clarke might think it's worth it - he's old. Anna Soubry has threatened it in the past. Nicky Morgan probably too young. Dominic Grieve?

What about the Labour Brexiters - would they prop up the Tories? There are 10 of them.

It's not Parliament that Brexit enthusiasts need to be worried about, its public opinion.

Going down the WTO route might be popular with the evangelical Brexit supporters, the majority of the business community will hate it though and I don't expect it to play well with the middle ground voters on this issue, if polls drift towards more of the general public thinking this whole thing was a mistake then a second referendum is a distinct possibility no matter what any politician is saying on the matter now.

I know a lot of the hardcore Brexiters love the idea of WTO terms, but its not without its risks for them.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

It's not Parliament that Brexit enthusiasts need to be worried about, its public opinion.

Going down the WTO route might be popular with the evangelical Brexit supporters, the majority of the business community will hate it though and I don't expect it to play well with the middle ground voters on this issue, if polls drift towards more of the general public thinking this whole thing was a mistake then a second referendum is a distinct possibility no matter what any politician is saying on the matter now.

I know a lot of the hardcore Brexiters love the idea of WTO terms, but its not without its risks for them.

I don't think the EUs intransigence is going down well with middle ground voters. The mistake was having referendum in the first place and I fear to much damage has already been done and IRS going to beery difficult to repair.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think the EUs intransigence is going down well with middle ground voters. The mistake was having referendum in the first place and I fear to much damage has already been done and IRS going to beery difficult to repair.

So I have seen a few people say but the only small movement in the polling on the issue, is towards the view that voting leave was a mistake

I fully agree that its not a huge move in public opinion, but what little there is appears to be going in that direction rather than in favour of the whole enterprise.

I think its probably irrelevant in the end, as I suspect the government is going to cough up the cash to the EU, so it will end up being the more hardline Brexiters who are most annoyed and they will just blame Theresa May rather than the decision itself.

The NHS might be waiting a while for its extra money though....

posh*spice

Public opinion- all polls show no shift in public opinion. Leaving the EU still wins.

If we go to WTO the public won't even notice. We just need to be ready.

When has anyone ever cared about trade deals in the past?

We survived the financial crisis , so much worse than this. We survived WW2 we will not even notice this.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

So I have seen a few people say but the only small movement in the polling on the issue, is towards the view that voting leave was a mistake

I fully agree that its not a huge move in public opinion, but what little there is appears to be going in that direction rather than in favour of the whole enterprise.

I think its probably irrelevant in the end, as I suspect the government is going to cough up the cash to the EU, so it will end up being the more hardline Brexiters who are most annoyed and they will just blame Theresa May rather than the decision itself.

The NHS might be waiting a while for its extra money though....

I don't think the government coughing up some extra cash is out of the question and would be begrudgingly accepted by the brexiters. I think Northern Ireland is a bigger problem.

Herzlos

There's a very vocal minority who view paying any cash to the eu as unacceptable. I think that's why May is trying to link the payout to trade so she can say it's part of the ongoing trade deal and not the cost of breaking our obligations.

posh*spice wrote: »

If we go to WTO the public won't even notice. We just need to be ready.

Seriously?
They won't notice the extra time crossing customs? The price rises due to tariffs? The drop in public services from new austerity?

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I don't think the EUs intransigence is going down well with middle ground voters. The mistake was having referendum in the first place and I fear to much damage has already been done and IRS going to beery difficult to repair.

Do the middle ground see the problem as coming from the eu or the uk? This is all playing out exactly like 48% of the voters predicted at the time.

The only people surprised at this stage are the ones that bought the lies about us having the eu over a barrel.