Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Rinoa

Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch and serving on the 'Exiting the European Union Committee:

Earlier this week, I and a group of cross-party colleagues from the Exiting the European Select Committee visited Brussels for a series of meetings. We met Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Brexit Negotiator; Guy Verhofstadt MEP, Chair of the European Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group; and several other senior MEPs.

Having heard what they had to say, I’m afraid I’ve come to the conclusion that the only Brexit deal being offered to us from Brussels would be far worse for the UK than leaving without a deal in March 2019.

Indeed, the only withdrawal deal on offer from the EU would require the UK to agree to the EU’s demands without any guarantee of being able to secure a reasonable future trade deal on terms better than the WTO.

The EU wants to require the UK to agree to its financial demands, to accept that every EU citizen resident in the UK has the right to live in the UK forever and for that right to be extended to parents and children. The EU would also make remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union a pre-requisite to having a frictionless border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

To add insult to injury, the EU’s negotiators are insisting that any future trade relationship should be made conditional upon a whole raft of protectionist and anti-competitive requirements which would severely handicap the UK’s freedom to negotiate genuine free trade deals with the rest of the world.

Furthermore, it was confirmed that no free trade deal can be agreed in parallel with the Article 50 withdrawal agreement because each of the 27 EU countries would have a veto on that deal – and would exercise it if they would otherwise face competition from the UK on tax, employment conditions, safety regulations and relaxation of restrictions on GM crops.

It also became clear to me during our visit that the EU would require that any transitional deal would have to be signed as part of a withdrawal agreement before any agreement was in place on the UK’s future relationship with the EU: during the transitional period, the status quo would prevail with the Single Market, Customs Union and European Court of Justice etc. having the same roles as at present; the UK would have no ability to control EU immigration during that period and would not even have the right to enter into trade deals with other countries.

While the EU negotiators sought to emphasise that they did not want to punish the UK, I find their negotiating stance to be inconsistent with such an assurance.

Difficult to see how any reponsible UK government could agree to any of that. Looks like the WTO route.

cogito

Rinoa wrote: »

Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch and serving on the 'Exiting the European Union Committee:

Difficult to see how any reponsible UK government could agree to any of that. Looks like the WTO route.

Can you post a link to that please?

Rinoa

cogito wrote: »

Can you post a link to that please?

There you go:

http://brexitcentral.com/meeting-michel-barnier-guy-verhofstadt-ive-concluded-no-deal-will-better-deal/

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

There you go:

http://brexitcentral.com/meeting-michel-barnier-guy-verhofstadt-ive-concluded-no-deal-will-better-deal/

Can we assume brexitcentral is suitably unbiased?

Very little in that sounds unreasonable from the eu side, but shows some lack of understanding from the commentator.

I mean; we've known all that for months; the EU announced it themselves. This sounds like trying to play the martyr whilst they figure out if they can meet the settlement deadline.

posh*spice

Rinoa wrote: »

Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch and serving on the 'Exiting the European Union Committee:

Difficult to see how any reponsible UK government could agree to any of that. Looks like the WTO route.

I think you're probably right, we should walk away at xmas. Keep the £50 billion and put all efforts into WTO.

I can't see how we have any other choice.

Going to WTO would be fine if we're organised. The politics could be difficult however.

But in the end what can parliament do if there is actually nothing to vote on?

It's stupid pretending that the EU are reasonable, for sure.

Herzlos

What kind of organizational is required to make WTO terms fine?

posh*spice

So how might this play out?

The government announce that can't get a deal with the EU and the UK is preparing for WTO.

Corbyn calls for a vote of no confidence.

What happens next ? Do the Tory Remoaners bring down the government potentially letting in Labour? Do the Tories have a leadership election? A quick passing of the crown to a new leader? David Davis? Boris?

Do the civil servants carry on preparing the UK for WTO whilst there is a GE?

A resurgent UKIP?

Labour's Brexit voters vote Tory in a GE?

If Labour win we leave the EU in name only. If the Tories win the outcome will depend on who wins the leadership contest.

Do the civil servants carry on in the background getting ready for WTO? What about the Brexit bill? Will there be time to get it through parliament?

System

I feel like politics students in the future are gonna have some decent material to study

kabayiri

posh*spice wrote: »

...
What happens next ? Do the Tory Remoaners bring down the government potentially letting in Labour? Do the Tories have a leadership election? A quick passing of the crown to a new leader? David Davis? Boris?

Do the civil servants carry on preparing the UK for WTO whilst there is a GE?

A resurgent UKIP?
...

You've got it, right there. It might not brand as UKIP, but a new right wing party would surely paint the mainstream parties as supine and essentially serving the EU before the British electorate.

The EU could be sewing the seeds of decades of disenchantment and bad blood between us and our European cousins. We have seen it before in the past.

So called FoM would count for nothing if the receiving country is openly hostile. This is already the case anyway in some places. No Muslim in Britain or France would entertain Hungary or Poland as a place to pursue a new life, whatever the high minded principles might suggest.

kabayiri

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I feel like politics students in the future are gonna have some decent material to study

Not really. They will be forced to study the standard EU accredited course.

All this would of course follow 2 years mandatory service in the European Army. (vote on Monday)