Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

mrginge

mayonnaise wrote: »

No it doesn't.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/uk-voters-increasingly-unhappy-with-plans-to-leave-eu_2344248.html

Poor old mayo, so desperate and bitter that she can’t even read a full article before throwing it into a post.

Ballard

ukcarper wrote: »

The above few post show the problem with this thread. Leaving on WTO terms will be detrimental to the UK but it will not be the major catastrophe that many remainers posters post conversely it will not go unnoticed as some brexiters say. The truth will be somewhere in between trade will still continue between EU and UK albeit at different levels.

In all honesty, a move to WTO tariffs would be unlikely to impact me dramatically because I have a decent full time job and sufficient savings. It's those who are closer to the breadline who would suffer.

Many leave voters label remainers as people who only voted to remain because they benefit from remaining but most, if not all, of my remain friends are very comfortable and won't be affected by possible price rises. We voted remain because we felt (and continue to feel) that being in the EU was better for the country (and by definition, ourselves).

I think that Farage has fooled a lot of people into thinking that leaving has no drawbacks and people only voted to remain out of self-interest. I don't agree with his viewpoint but he is a great orator and it's easier to believe things when they're spoken with a sense of authority.

Farage, incidentally, thinks that Trump is the best president the US has ever had, supports the Afd in Germany, said in a speech that if we don't get the Brexit he wants that he will 'don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines' and doesn't think that smoking is bad for your health.

Tromking

Ballard wrote: »

In all honesty, a move to WTO tariffs would be unlikely to impact me dramatically because I have a decent full time job and sufficient savings. It's those who are closer to the breadline who would suffer.

WTO tariffs will more likely just change peoples choices. Even people close to the breadline will not choose to further impoverish themselves by paying through the nose for imported goods with tariffs, they’ll just choose to buy something else. I noted in the week that Morrison’s are doing better then their competitors because they source the vast majority of their goods from within the UK, expect the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury’s to follow suit. That said, I’m trying to imagine the scandal ridden German car industry allowing their politicians to ‘negotiate’ a deal where whacking great tariffs will be slapped on their products destined for a country which accounts for 20% of its output.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

WTO tariffs will more likely just change peoples choices. Even people close to the breadline will not choose to further impoverish themselves by paying through the nose for imported goods with tariffs, they’ll just choose to buy something else. I noted in the week that Morrison’s are doing better then their competitors because they source the vast majority of their goods from within the UK, expect the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury’s to follow suit. That said, I’m trying to imagine the scandal ridden German car industry allowing their politicians to ‘negotiate’ a deal where whacking great tariffs will be slapped on their products destined for a country which accounts for 20% of its output.

A noble idea, but we eat more food than we produce by a long margin. We need to import stuff and someone is going to have to pay the difference.

GreatApe

Herzlos wrote: »

A noble idea, but we eat more food than we produce by a long margin. We need to import stuff and someone is going to have to pay the difference.

Base ingredients are very cheap

Sugar rice flour corn veg oils etc are all very cheap

Most foods are just a mixture of base ingredients.

What would happen if the pound fell a lot or high tariffs were introduced is that we would import more base ingredients and less proceeded foods.

For example we could import a £1 bar of chocolate
Or we can import the 5p worth of base ingredients it is made from and make a bar of chocolate in the UK. That reduces the import bill from £1 to 5p and it increases domestic GDP by 95p

Food is one of the areas I am least concerned about. For instance we import £500 million of bottled water. Primarily because we are rich enough to pay extra for water off some mountain in France. If we put a large tariff on bottled water we would just bottle more of the stuff coming from a Scottish source.

Food isn't the issue it's easy to produce locally and easy to substitute.

setmefree2

Rinoa wrote: »

Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch and serving on the 'Exiting the European Union Committee:

Difficult to see how any reponsible UK government could agree to any of that. Looks like the WTO route.

Yes. Impossible to see how this government could agree to that.

Fwiw I think Hammond should include some money for getting ready for exiting the EU on WTO terms in March 2019.

But. Even if we are not ready it won't be the end of the world. As I understand it all the container ports can cope with us going to WTO, the problem is Dover. But we don't actually have to start collecting taxes on the 29 March 2019, we can decide to wave lorries through until we are ready. The French will have to decide what to do in Calais - if they want to deal with lots of delayed angry lorry drivers then that is their choice.

Ditto with the Irish border. Nobody in the EU can make The Brits and the Irish create a hard border. What are they going to do send European Army troops?

The government should stand firm imho. There is nothing to fear from WTO.

setmefree2

As for a no confidence vote, I think the DUP have said they won't support a no deal Brexit.

DUP will vote against no-deal Brexit to avoid chaos of hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, Arlene Foster vows

If Labour and the Lib Dems also opted to reject coming out of the EU without a deal, that could mean enough votes to defeat the Government

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4669453/dup-will-vote-against-no-deal-brexit-to-avoid-chaos-of-hard-border-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland-arlene-foster-vows/

So I think we would get another GE?

At what point would the government admit there is going to be no FTA? Won't the talks just drag out discussing everything other than trade until the penny drops that there is going to be no deal?

Herzlos

What about the stuff we can't produce?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

Christopher Chope, MP for Christchurch and serving on the 'Exiting the European Union Committee:

Difficult to see how any reponsible UK government could agree to any of that. Looks like the WTO route.

Nonsense.

That entire Brextremist rant you quoted merely acknowledges reality in that the only practical way of leaving the EU in just over a year is to have a transitional agreement that broadly mirrors current arrangements.

We can then start the long process of negotiating what our future arrangements with the EU will be - and that will take many years.

There will of course likely be some concessions - on both sides - things like EU citizens access to benefits could change, as could control of fishing grounds, but on the whole the main pillars of our relationship with the EU will likely be mirrored for several years while a longer term deal is negotiated.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

What about the stuff we can't produce?

What does EU produce that we couldn't get from somewhere else.