Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A significant chunk of the UK economy is highly dependent on full and unrestricted access to the single market.

Don't forget we've spent the last 40 years touting ourselves around the world as the place to invest in building your EU manufacturing plants, HQ's, etc, as we are in the single market with no restrictions.

And we got hundreds of Billions of £ worth of inwards investment and huge amounts of job creation as a result.

Which is one of many reasons the govt are bricking it now....



It could, given enough time, that's the vastly inferior Canada style trade deal option and it usually takes 5-10 years to negotiate.

But that's simply not good enough for the UK - when such a large part of our economy is dependent on full and unrestricted single market membership.

So we'll end up with a transitional deal mirroring current arrangements for 'about' 2 years, which will then get extended for a few more years, and then at some point 5-10 years from now we'll either have sensibly decided to stay on in something that looks a lot like the EEA/EFTA (albeit maybe under another name), or we'll have ended up with a vastly inferior trade-only deal and the pressure will be building to rejoin the EU as the economy fails.

Problem which you don't seem to accept is we are leaving and we need to limit damage.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

'Enormous arrogance' German MEP rages at Barnier for 'unfair' Brexit strategy towards UK

Sad when EU polititians can see it but remainers can't.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/878340/Brexit-news-UK-Germany-EU-Theresa-May-European-Union-Michel-Barnier-German-video

How many more MEPS does he need to convince for us to get our magic deal?

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

Problem which you don't seem to accept is we are leaving and we need to limit damage.

How do we do that?

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

How many more MEPS does he need to convince for us to get our magic deal?

None.

The only magic deal is the one where we walk away.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

How do we do that?

There are many outcomes that would be better than WTO rules for both sides but as I said EU are not worried about the effect on many sections of the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

Problem which you don't seem to accept is we are leaving and we need to limit damage.

Of course we are leaving the EU.

And the best way to minimise damage is to get a deal as close to EEA/EFTA as possible.

That will start with a transition deal that takes us out of the EU but keeps us in the single market. Then we will negotiate a longer term solution.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

There are many outcomes that would be better than WTO rules for both sides

Yes.

And we've been offered them.

Staying in the EEA/EFTA, which would be good for Britain, or a transition period followed by a Canada style trade deal, which would be bad for Britain (but better than WTO).

Our problem is we want to have our cake and eat it - which isn't going to happen.

but as I said EU are not worried about the effect on many sections of the EU.

And some sections of the UK govt appears not to be worried about the hugely damaging effect of leaving the single market on large sections of the UK economy.

ukcarper

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Of course we are leaving the EU.

And the best way to minimise damage is to get a deal as close to EEA/EFTA as possible.

That will start with a transition deal that takes us out of the EU but keeps us in the single market. Then we will negotiate a longer term solution.

But that would mean accepting the four freedoms so we will have to accept less.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ukcarper wrote: »

But that would mean accepting the four freedoms

So what?

so we will have to accept less.

Why?

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

But that would mean accepting the four freedoms so we will have to accept less.

Indeed. So how do we protect the economy whilst keeping the anti-migrants happy? We're going to have almost uncontrolled migration anyway; the economy needs migrants.