Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Ballard

Herzlos wrote: »

I stand to do fairly well out of Brexit in the short-ish time frame at least. I'm not showing any defeatism, just pointing out the reality and how bad an idea it is for almost everyone.

I’ve fairly regularly been accused of voting remain out of personal interest whereas I would be affected less than most. My employer does little business with the EU and I’m reasonably well off. Some people just can’t accept that I voted for what I believe is the best outcome for the UK.

Graham_Devon

Ballard wrote: »

After the worrying (but hardly a shock) Airbus announcement we can presumably expect calls for the UK to start it!!!8217;s own aircraft industry.

I was listening to the chief exec this morning. Appears there is a little more to this than just brexit (though not taking away the fact tat Brexit is a big issue for Airbus).

They are looking, and have been looking for some time, at moving production to China. I.e getting out of the EU as a whole. So while brexit might be making them re-look at this, their intention was to move out the EU entirely.

It was also a bit of a lobby piece from Airbus. They want certain things from the government and are apparently talking to the government about those things. What they are we don't know. However, their clear intention is to threaten an exit from the UK (and EU) while they discuss with the government.

At this moment in time, Airbus leaving the UK is a threat and not much more while they position themselves publically and apply pressure to discussions with the government.

But personally, while I can see that Brexit is probably forcing them to look into this....they won't remain in the EU at all. Puts a bit of a damp squib on the EU customs trading argument, as they will be outside the EU completely if they move to China as per their intention!

Also needs a mention really. Airbus is part funded by EU governments. The cheif exec denies that he has been pressured to make this statement. Others, however, state the chief exec met with his funders last week and now comes out with this.

Yes, this is a major news story. yes, it will be detrimental if Airbus leaves the UK (and EU). But I don't think it's wise at this stage to lap all of this up and assume it's a done deal. This is politics. It's a company that's part funded by the EU (specifically Germany), making public statements about brexit and what it "might" do.

The same company stated that should the UK vote to leave the EU, they would implement plans to move production straight away. They were a big part of the remain campaign at the time, with the same chief exec taking part in the governments leaflet. They didn't leave.

So, pinch of salt for me at this stage.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

You still don't get it Conrad; we're not negotiating with France or Holland individually, we're negotiating with the EU. For all the claims of division the EU27 have been entirely in agreement. Will any country risk ruining the EU over 9% of their export market?

And even if somehow they blink first: what are you expecting them to agree to? The cake and eat it deal?

I'm not Conrad.
As explained to you, populist politics are sweeping through Europe toppling one 'centrist' Gov't after another, or at least causing them to be push well into populist territory (Dutch Conservatives were pushed well to the right by Gilders, similar dynamic now in Germany). Anyone that thinks Govt's will self-harm their own trade and citizens in the face of the populist tsunami, is completely failing to think properly.

The core trading nations that fund the entire EU will have final sway, and they have much to loose if trade is harmed.

Just 1 ill-effect of a bad trade deal, could be the UK adopting Trumpian style economics such as slashing corporation tax which would cause UK to look a lot more attractive than the high taxing EU.

Herzlos

Yet the populists seem to always implode within a short time of coming to any power once it becomes apparent they've no idea what they are doing. Governments will do what they feel is best for their country, and that's usually to stick with the EU instead of caving to a relatively small export market.


The core nations have much to lose from a bad deal with the UK. But they've also got much more to lose if they give the UK a super special deal that causes the EU to fall apart. It's really not that hard to understand. In any decision made by these key nations (who are still providing a united front), the needs of themselves within the EU will outweigh the needs of the UK.

Obviously the best solution is a good deal (or the UK staying in the EU, EEA or equivalent), but the onus is entirely on the UK to make that happen. It's just not worth the EU nations caving into whatever unspecified demands are coming out of the UK.

Ballard wrote: »

I!!!8217;ve fairly regularly been accused of voting remain out of personal interest whereas I would be affected less than most. My employer does little business with the EU and I!!!8217;m reasonably well off. Some people just can!!!8217;t accept that I voted for what I believe is the best outcome for the UK.

Exactly. Whilst I won't be badly affected by Brexit for similar reasons, and I'm confident we'll have re-joined by the time my kids are at secondary school, but I can potentially use the downturn to get a bigger house on the cheap, I'm not a sociopath and don't wish that level of damage to those that will be less insulated from it.

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I was listening to the chief exec this morning. Appears there is a little more to this than just brexit (though not taking away the fact tat Brexit is a big issue for Airbus).

They are looking, and have been looking for some time, at moving production to China. I.e getting out of the EU as a whole. So while brexit might be making them re-look at this, their intention was to move out the EU entirely.



...


The same company stated that should the UK vote to leave the EU, they would implement plans to move production straight away. They were a big part of the remain campaign at the time, with the same chief exec taking part in the governments leaflet. They didn't leave.

I'm not sure how much of it they can move to China, though I don't doubt they may move some.


I also don't think this is scare tactics - they've made a pretty rational argument as to why they need to remain in the customs union - or do you disagree with their logic?


Sure, they said they'd leave in the event of a leave vote, which they've looked into and presumably decided to wait a bit whilst Brexit looked like it was going to soften up.


Do you really want to take the gamble that Brexit will send Airbus onto the mainland? Nissan? Toyota? BMW?

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

Airbus preparing to leave the UK if we don't get customs union access:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/22/airbus-plans-uk-cuts-amid-fears-of-hard-brexit-impact

Lots of new business investment announced in the past few weeks. I would put up a link but Twitter is playing up. If you Google Jefferson Group, Twitter, and look at their last few weeks posts you will see examples of new UK investment news.


In any event as ever Remainers ignore MITIGATION THROUGH POLICY. If there is no deal (unlikely btw), then Gov't would hit the red button unleashing a raft of pro-biz policy that would mitigate the effects of no deal.

Lornapink

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Shocking dereliction of duty by the government here.

There's tens of thousands of British jobs in Airbus and hundreds of thousands in the supply chain, all being put at risk by the extremist-Brexiteers refusing to listen to the concerns of businesses.

Negotiation delays result from Remainer collusion to stall things in the hope we give up on Brexit, what with Court cases, Lords amendments, collusion with the Irish and on it goes.


If capitulating Remainers weren't hampering us, we'd have progressed far quicker although it has to be said the French then German elections were another reason negotiations were delayed.

LHW99

There's tens of thousands of British jobs in Airbus

According to the Airbus manager on the BBC they employ 14,000 people directly in the UK not "tens of thousands" and according to the same guy - one hundred thousand other indirect jobs could be affected, not "hundreds of thousands".
Not to dimish the effect if they completely disappeared from the UK, but no need to exaggerate.

Lornapink

Ballard wrote: »

After the worrying (but hardly a shock) Airbus announcement we can presumably expect calls for the UK to start it’s own aircraft industry.

Why not, we had a world leading aircraft manufacturing sector until Tony Benn killed it off in the 1970's. We have the worlds second largest aerospace industry, and to my surprise the worlds largest medical Cannabis production industry and lead the world in electric car technology.


So much defeatism by Remainers. Their response to very challenge is capitulation and doom, it's so sad to see.

Lornapink

French Economy Minister, how dare European nations want to Govern themselves, lol;


'Europe is in a state of decomposition, it's falling apart before our eyes,' he said.
'Immigration, financial risks, these are problems that can only have European solutions,' he said. But, Le Maire added, member countries are 'closing in on themselves, trying to find national solutions.'


https://www.politico.eu/article/le-maire-eurozone-eu-falling-apart-before-our-eyes/

Herzlos

Where is the government going to get all the money required to mitigate the damage?


Will they be able to produce duplicated and internationally recognised organisations to cover the ones we lose? Euratom, aviation safety, etc?


What are they going to do to mitigate the delays in customs?


I understand you're saying the government will be able to do stuff to mitigate it, but they seem to have done no actual planning for that, and haven't started on any of the actual work (some of which wouldn't even be ready if it started 2 years ago), not have they got any idea how they'll fund it.


So I'm significantly less optimistic that it'll just work than you are.


I'll have a look for your inward investment claims. Lots of pocket change - 124 jobs here, 150 there, possibly 2000 jobs there by 2022. It's good news, but it's a rounding error compared to the threat of losing 10,000's of jobs from the big boys.

No-one has ever said investment in the UK will stop dead - we still produce some useful stuff and are still well regarded. My argument has always been that there hasn't been talk of anything like enough investment or job creation to offset what we've already lost, never mind what we're at risk of losing.
What jobs we do create will likely be more expensive and less productive than if we didn't leave the CU, too.



As said it's not zero sum - we don't need to Brexit to facilitate any of that investment - this is very much a case of saying "look, the sky hasn't completely fallen in" rather than being anything explicitly good about Brexit.