Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as if the EU powerhouse is struggling a little. A lack of a trade deal with the UK isn't in their interests.

https://financialtribune.com/articles/world-economy/88302/german-growth-forecast-slashed

Heard on the radio today that in the EU they plan to end QE* at the end of 2018.

The UK ended it's QE last December.

*QE = Quantitative Easing aka money printing on a huge scale.
Definition: Putting money into the system to artificially prop up and stimulate a weak economy.

So if it comes to a trade standoff, who'll blink first?

fewgroats

"We're all leavers now."

Not until we actually leave.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

So if it comes to a trade standoff, who'll blink first?

The one with 43% of it's trade at stake, rather than the one with (IIRC) 7%.


Do people honestly still believe that the EU will blink first? Or that "they need us more than they need them"? If they do, I may as well just give up.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

So if it comes to a trade standoff, who'll blink first?

The EU is far from a collective front. Self interest tends to rule. When it really matters. Merkel has enough problems at home without damaging a relationship with a key export market.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Amazon seem to think their customers would prefer to have the money in their own pockets rather than the pockets of employees, suppliers and pet project charities.

Then you really don't know Amazon at all.

I only buy from them if I can't buy the goods cheaper elsewhere too

And you are worried about leaving the EU. :think:

phillw

buglawton wrote: »

So if it comes to a trade standoff, who'll blink first?

What is the per capita outstanding QE for the 65 million people in the UK compared to the 341million in the eurozone?

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The EU is far from a collective front. Self interest tends to rule. When it really matters.

And you expect they'll be scared and beg to do a deal with us in the end?

I reckon that nobody will blink, we'll all be strong and stable and see what happens over the next ten years.

mayonnaise wrote: »

Same on here with the brexit dividend.
We all know it doesn't exist.

What is a negative dividend called?

mrginge wrote: »

Let!!!8217;s hope so and they can then give up at whatever it is they are trying to win.

Chance of a second referendum, like Nigel Farage said he'd have fought for if the result had been so close the other way. It's called democracy, you can keep changing your mind all you want.

Graham_Devon

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes I prefer to pay less rather than more for stuff I buy - I'm strange like that but I assume you arrived om MSE for not dissimilar reasons.

yet you seem to have a huge problem with people who want to pay less for a home.

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes Thrug - Amazon's customers are oh so bothered about their lack of social conscience (as you suggest) that in 2017 they only spent $11.4bn in the UK last year.

If you want to understand the consumer ignore what they say (they lie) and look at what they do. A social conscience and corporation tax are paid for by consumers and they'd prefer to avoid them when possible.

Yes I prefer to pay less rather than more for stuff I buy - I'm strange like that but I assume you arrived om MSE for not dissimilar reasons.

Although I'm delighted to hear I'm paying for the brexit dividend by paying more tax rather than the non-existent savings from brexit. Beautiful, glorious brexit!

Question Time and similar TV audiences always have plenty of members saying they are happy to pay more in tax for a better society. They demand better social contracts for workers, higher pensions for OAP's, want better social care, more guide dogs, more police and plenty claim they adore foreign aid spending.

Both Dimbleby's often do an audience show of hands, and always the majority wants tax rises.

Lets now see how the reality pans-out. Will be a laugh when Labour offers even higher taxes at the next GE.


The actions of people in my experience are always at odds with their behaviours. I've yet to meet anyone that stops using low wage, gig-economy services in order to spend more money with firms that pay better aside from the odd 'accidental' instance.

Lornapink

phillw wrote: »

What is the per capita outstanding QE for the 65 million people in the UK compared to the 341million in the eurozone?


And you expect they'll be scared and beg to do a deal with us in the end?
.

I'm surprised Remainers are still making such idiotic points.
The size of the EU is utterly irrelevant when it comes to the FACT certain core contributor nations export significantly to us, for example 9% of Dutch exports are UK-bound.

Only the most rigid concrete brain would think Holland will merrily harm it's own exports, workers and taxes, given how precarious the EU is as a whole.
According to your logic they will merrily self harm and have to pick-up the bill left by our lost EU club fee.
Remainers have some kind of blind spot when it comes to common sense.


SUMMARY - a bad deal means France, Holland et al get;
+ Less trade
+ Less tax
+ Fewer jobs
+ UK potentially harmed, so even less trade as UK consumers purchase less
+ Bad access to the City which Carney says is THE money pump to EU economy


One day you guys will have the shock of your lives when reality hits.

phillw

Lornapink wrote: »

SUMMARY - a bad deal means France, Holland et al get;
+ Less trade
+ Less tax
+ Fewer jobs
+ UK potentially harmed, so even less trade as UK consumers purchase less
+ Bad access to the City which Carney says is THE money pump to EU economy

Right, so for France, Holland et al "No deal is better than a bad deal".\

Money can easily be moved bypassing London. It's already started happening because of how badly the government is negotiating. The longer that goes on, there is less reason to stay in London.

Lornapink wrote: »

One day you guys will have the shock of your lives when reality hits.

Reality will start hitting when we leave the EU. 52% of the country will get a shock.

ilovehouses wrote: »

People like me you mean? I'll be wanting to pay as little as possible for the next house I buy.

It sounds great, but a housing price crash would finish the country off.