Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

EU migration slows ergo wages rise in the UK. Who’d a thunk it!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-worker-shortage-uk-pay-rise-a8043221.html

One of the reasons some of us voted leave BTW.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

If the choice is between joining the EU on terms worse than now, or on our own in the wilderness on terms worse than being in the EU then you paint a picture of the UK electorate as stupid, arrogant and prejudiced. I hope they aren't, but if you're right then it would be nice to know.

I would hope that even the strongest brexiter would change their mind if faced with total economic collapse and end of civilisation as we know it, but if you would be raging at foreigners with your dying breath then that is up to you.

If Merkel manages to form a coalition Government. Then change will most certainly be on it's way. Without the UK as an obstacle in the way. In all likelihood there'll be a two speed Europe. As one door closes another opens.

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

Personally I’m not scared at all. If you think the uk electorate are going to vote to rejoin the eu on worse terms than we currently have then you don’t know much about the uk electorate.

If they agreed to give up those perks already and they were off the table u don't see how it'd make a difference.

The comparison should be with regular eu access and whatever deal we get. If leaving is worse than staying without perks the resentment will last until after Brexit leaves living memory.

mrginge

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If Merkel manages to form a coalition Government. Then change will most certainly be on it's way. Without the UK as an obstacle in the way. In all likelihood there'll be a two speed Europe. As one door closes another opens.

The resident nick clegg fan club just do not get this very point.

Once we and the eu start down our own paths the price to get back in will be too large, too unpalatable and too much hassle.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

EU migration slows ergo wages rise in the UK. Who’d a thunk it!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-worker-shortage-uk-pay-rise-a8043221.html

One of the reasons some of us voted leave BTW.

Only really works if you ignore inflation (caused by Brexit induced devaluation)

Include inflation and you actually go from positive real wage growth pre referendum to negative real wage growth now..

It's hardly a shock that nominal wages are going up given the cost of living is, its just surprising it isn't going up more quickly.

I know where I work we will all be getting 3% next year, as we base the number on the CPI rate the previous September

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

Only really works if you ignore inflation (caused by Brexit induced devaluation)

Include inflation and you actually go from positive real wage growth pre referendum to negative real wage growth now..

It's hardly a shock that nominal wages are going up given the cost of living is, its just surprising it isn't going up more quickly.

I know where I work we will all be getting 3% next year, as we base the number on the CPI rate the previous September

Even nominal wage growth runs contrary to the remain claim that inward EU migration has no effect on wages.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

Even nominal wage growth runs contrary to the remain claim that inward EU migration has no effect on wages.

How?

Most people are now effectively earning less in real terms than they were a year ago, and this is suddenly evidence that a Brexit is boosting wages?

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

How?

Most people are now effectively earning less in real terms than they were a year ago, and this is suddenly evidence that a Brexit is boosting wages?

Well considering we’re still 18 months from leaving its at least evidence that a trend may be emerging. It looks like the instincts of the majority of UK electorate maybe proven right.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

Well considering we’re still 18 months from leaving its at least evidence that a trend may be emerging. It looks like the instincts of the majority of UK electorate maybe proven right.

A trend of reducing living standards by falls in real wages as a result of higher inflation?

I'm not sure that's what people voted for!

Thrugelmir

mrginge wrote: »

The resident nick clegg fan club just do not get this very point.

Once we and the eu start down our own paths the price to get back in will be too large, too unpalatable and too much hassle.

The future direction of the EU is uncertain. The only certainty is that has to be fiscal integration for the project to work. Is there the drive to achieve this aim. Or when it comes down to the nitty gritty will all the fissures between partners open up.