Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

phillw

ukcarper wrote: »

This show just how out of touch you are I voted remain but most of the people I know voted to leave I know for sure none voted leave because of the £350 million and have change thier views. I am not so sure I would vote remain again although I never considered voting leave before.

I know people who voted to leave because they were racist and others because of the financial bribe. If you only know people in one of those groups then you're out of touch.

The CEO of the NHS is under the impression that the £350 million a week for the NHS was important to the leavers, so I guess you think he's out of touch too. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-latest-nhs-england-350-million-per-week-pledge-eu-simon-stevens-brussels-a8043191.html

If you're saying it wasn't important then I wonder why the leave campaign thought it was worth lying over. Maybe they are out of touch.

If the establishment is out of touch, then the delivery of brexit is unlikely going to deliver what leavers want. You'd have thought they would be demanding some form of referendum that shows what direction the government should take.

Filo25 wrote: »

I think there may be a few signs of public opinion moving in a few recent polls (although of course it may just be noise), but not to remotely the extent that could justify a second referendum so soon after the last one, any government would need to see significant evidence that public opinion had SIGNIFICANTLY moved before even considering that path, and I say that as someone who clearly did not like the result of the referendum!

Obviously the timing of the next referendum on joining the EU should be timed when the impact of brexit it as it's highest.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

I think there may be a few signs of public opinion moving in a few recent polls (although of course it may just be noise), but not to remotely the extent that could justify a second referendum so soon after the last one, any government would need to see significant evidence that public opinion had SIGNIFICANTLY moved before even considering that path, and I say that as someone who clearly did not like the result of the referendum!

I agree and the polls prior to referendum showed a lead for remain.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

I know people who voted to leave because they were racist and others because of the financial bribe. If you only know people in one of those groups then you're out of touch.

The CEO of the NHS is under the impression that the £350 million a week for the NHS was important, so I guess you think he's out of touch too. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/brexit-latest-nhs-england-350-million-per-week-pledge-eu-simon-stevens-brussels-a8043191.html



Obviously the timing of the next referendum on joining the EU should be timed when the impact of brexit it as it's highest.

I might not be in touch with as many people who voted remain as you, but as I said most of the people who voted and I know which way they voted, voted leave and none are racists.

That says more about him than the referendum result

mrginge

phillw wrote: »

The lost perks would be a sunk cost, so it would depend on the economic situation of the time.

Those against having another referendum appear to be scared that a majority would vote to rejoin on those terms.

Personally I’m not scared at all. If you think the uk electorate are going to vote to rejoin the eu on worse terms than we currently have then you don’t know much about the uk electorate.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree and the polls prior to referendum showed a lead for remain.

The polls were all over the place before the last referendum, always hard to poll the first time you have one as there is no comparative, now at least you can look at how people say they will vote this time compared to how they say they voted last time to get an idea of movements, comparative turnout predictions is still a struggle though as the last GE showed!

We are not even close to the sort of numbers that would see pressure for a second one yet, and you would need to see those numbers pretty consistently. I have no idea how big the pool of swing voters is on this issue, a lot of people are certainly pretty locked into their decisions and unlikely to change their minds.

phillw

ukcarper wrote: »

I agree and the polls prior to referendum showed a lead for remain.

Polls aren't perfect, it's pretty much guess work.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-remain-win-new-eu-exit-vote-survation-poll-a7820286.html

Apathy was one of the reasons why leave won, so many people thought we would remain they didn't bother to vote. It's pretty dumb to think that those people wouldn't feel more likely to turn up to vote today. Plus there are a load of voters die already and another load of new voters. Of course there were apathetic leavers, I actually think voting should be mandatory and well informed.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

Personally I’m not scared at all. If you think the uk electorate are going to vote to rejoin the eu on worse terms than we currently have then you don’t know much about the uk electorate.

If I were a Brexiter my bigger concern (although still unlikely) would be pressure building resulting in a second referendum before the Article 50 process completes, which means we could probably rejoin on exactly the same terms we are on now.

Its not an impossible scenario though if the Hard Brexiters get their way and negotiations fall apart, if the cliff edge starts to look likely we are likely to start seeing further economic impacts well before March 2019.

phillw

mrginge wrote: »

Personally I’m not scared at all. If you think the uk electorate are going to vote to rejoin the eu on worse terms than we currently have then you don’t know much about the uk electorate.

If the choice is between joining the EU on terms worse than now, or on our own in the wilderness on terms worse than being in the EU then you paint a picture of the UK electorate as stupid, arrogant and prejudiced. I hope they aren't, but if you're right then it would be nice to know.

I would hope that even the strongest brexiter would change their mind if faced with total economic collapse and end of civilisation as we know it, but if you would be raging at foreigners with your dying breath then that is up to you.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

Polls aren't perfect, it's pretty much guess work.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-remain-win-new-eu-exit-vote-survation-poll-a7820286.html

Apathy was one of the reasons why leave won, so many people thought we would remain they didn't bother to vote. It's pretty dumb to think that those people wouldn't feel more likely to turn up to vote today. Plus there are a load of voters die already and another load of new voters. Of course there were apathetic leavers, I actually think voting should be mandatory and well informed.

The problem is polls are not a reliable way of predicting the result of a referendum. I agree apathy plaid a part in referendum but I'm not convince the same thing would not happen again. I'm not sure about voting being mandatory.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

If the choice is between joining the EU on terms worse than now, or on our own in the wilderness on terms worse than being in the EU then you paint a picture of the UK electorate as stupid, arrogant and prejudiced. I hope they aren't, but if you're right then it would be nice to know.

I would hope that even the strongest brexiter would change their mind if faced with total economic collapse and end of civilisation as we know it, but if you would be raging at foreigners with your dying breath then that is up to you.

How do you think we would have fared in 2007 if we were in EURO.