Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Who's playing games with whom? The EU's default position is to demand solutions and then reject everything we propose.

It's not the EU's fault that all of our proposals have been crap. It's been pretty obvious that the EU wouldn't take most of our suggestions.

And for you to say that you're keen to make a success of Brexit is the direct opposite of everything you have ever posted. Laughable.

Yeah, because part of 'making a success of something' involves a lot of figuring out what it's for and how it's' going to work. I'm pointing out flaws in a pretty dodgy plan (if you can call it as such) in order to try and figure out what we can do with it.



I still haven't had any answer to most of the open questions, including what I can do to be more patriotic.


And for the record; I'd be all for Brexit if it came with any sort of credible plan.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

Yup it's growth, but you have to admit 18% more growth would be great, eh?

Even the UK Gov's own papers put the best case scenario from WTO as being an 8% loss.

Again you don't misunderstand the stats.

Either way 18% growth doesn't make us 18% better off.

If you increase your population by 10% through immigration, you'll get 10% GDP growth. Doesn't mean we'll see any benefit.

Arklight

Rinoa wrote: »

Again you don't misunderstand the stats.

Either way 18% growth doesn't make us 18% better off.

If you increase your population by 10% through immigration, you'll get 10% GDP growth. Doesn't mean we'll see any benefit.

Yes, that's exactly how GDP isn't calculated. Almost the dictionary definition of being wrong.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-economics/chapter/comparing-real-and-nominal-gdp/

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg makes some excellent points.

JRM wrote:

The other thing that it should do is make it absolutely clear that the money is in return for a trade deal. And if we don’t get a trade deal, if we don’t have it ready to sign immediately after the 29th March, then the EU will not get any money from us. And that no payments will be made until that deal is made. The money is our strongest card, and it seems at the moment to have been given away without anything in return. So I think we need some backbone in these negotiations.

When will it sink in that the 'divorce' payment is in no way linked to any future trade deal?

Britain will be legally bound to pay its £39bn Brexit divorce bill before the details of a future EU trade deal are agreed, a minister has admitted.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-uk-pay-eu-trade-deal-talks-david-davis-suella-braverman-a8364841.html

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

I believe that we need to stop playing games with the EU - they know we're bluffing - and get on to making proposals that they might accept. We need to work with them to get anything meaningful out of this instead of acting like toddlers.


There's nothing 'No Can Do' about acknowledging we're totally outclassed, we just need a change of strategy.


I'm keen to make a success out of Brexit, but no-one has been able to tell me how to do that yet.

Thanks for proving my point.

If you think we're outclassed you've already run up the white flag.

And as for only making proposals the EU will accept? Good grief, what kind of surrender monkey are you.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

When will it sink in that the 'divorce' payment is in no way linked to any future trade deal?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-uk-pay-eu-trade-deal-talks-david-davis-suella-braverman-a8364841.html

Thanks for making JRM's point. We should make it clear now: No deal = no money.

Rinoa

Arklight wrote: »

Yes, that's exactly how GDP isn't calculated. Almost the dictionary definition of being wrong.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-economics/chapter/comparing-real-and-nominal-gdp/

Here's BoE take on it:



BoE claim Household expenditure is by far the biggest element. So an extra 10% more immigration will add approximately 10% to GDP.

Graham_Devon

Arklight wrote: »

Yes, that's exactly how GDP isn't calculated. Almost the dictionary definition of being wrong.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-economics/chapter/comparing-real-and-nominal-gdp/

Well the BOE used that exact definition a couple of weeks ago as a reason as to why growth was slowing - fewer people coming here.

So someone's wrong, it's just a case of who now.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Thanks for making JRM's point. We should make it clear now: No deal = no money.

We could try but the money has never had anything to do with the deal, and the EU has no reason to concede on it.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

And as for only making proposals the EU will accept? Good grief, what kind of surrender monkey are you.

What's the point in making proposals that we know will get rejected? Unless the plan is to let it time out and blame the EU?

I mean, if you're trying to buy a £250k house you might be able to offer £225k but there's no point offering £2.50.