Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

Brexit has already cost households £900 each

https://news.sky.com/story/carney-sees-a-900-brexit-cost-to-household-incomes-11381658

Problem being, it hasn't.

What is actually being said is that households have lost out on an additional £900 that may or mat not have actually happened depending on the economy.. No one has got poorer, they just haven't got £900 richer.

And that in itself is questionable, which even Carney himself admits. It's simply based on the BOE's assumption of where we may be now had we not voted brexit, assuming business investment is down 4% (all because of brexit and no other reason such as highly indebted consumers, we see this with ToysRUs going down, Tesco Direct closing down) and then simply apportioning the increase in investment that may have happened across every household in the UK.

In other words, it's a load of.....

If they can figure out exactly how the economy will perform (as they would have to to make such a calculation) and exactly how much we have "lost out on" maybe they should get on with ensuring they put their efforts into making sure we all prosper.

They keep changing their mind on interest rates due to "recent data" so maybe they should quit with pretending to know how the economy would be today should we have voted to stay in.

triathlon

kabayiri wrote: »

Nothing loyal whatsoever. They are economic migrants, just like the Poles and Romanians who head to Germany, or the Brits who work in France.

FOM will still apply to them, and they can still work in any of the EU states. That's what an European marketplace means. You can access a wider market when conditions in your current location change.

Racist,

I would double their numbers if I had it my way

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's simply based on the BOE's assumption of where we may be now had we not voted brexit,

Graham, please can you explain, in simple words please.
How come we went from topping the G7 GDP growth list before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?
How come we outperformed each and every Eurozone economy before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?

Thanks a lot.

buglawton

My suggestion would be: Timing. Countries have different economic cycles (thank goodness). And the UK was quick out of the revival gate after the '08 recession. Our less agile centrally controlled EU cousins took a lot longer to turn their own economic supertanker round but now it's making good progress like ours did.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

Graham, please can you explain, in simple words please.
How come we went from topping the G7 GDP growth list before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?
How come we outperformed each and every Eurozone economy before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?

Thanks a lot.

Mayo, can you explain, in simple words please.

How come when UK growth was out performing most EU countries back in 2017, you claimed "Ah, that's because we haven't left yet."

But now, when growth is lagging most EU countries, you claim "Ah, that's because of Brexit"

Rinoa

Jacob Rees-Mogg makes some excellent points.

“Inevitably it is disconcerting when the Government says one thing and then agrees to do another. In terms of these negotiations, particularly as they’re led by someone who backed Remain, trust is very important. And it’s very important that the Government maintains faith with those who voted leave.

I think for the Government to be preparing for failure two and half years before the point at which they ought to be ready is just weak.

To go into the negotiations to say to Mr Barnier, ‘we will kowtow before you in every way you possibly want if we cannot get everything ready by the due date’ encourages him to say, ‘just kowtow, I’m quite happy’. And make no effort to come to a sensible agreement, I think it is a sign of abject weakness.”

If we say to the EU our backstop position is that will be the vassal state, why should the EU make any effort to make any arrangement other than for us to be anything other than for us to be a vassal state? This was always a problem with what was agreed in December and the problem with having creative ambiguity. Which is simply a way of trying to gull voters. Actually Governments should not have creative ambiguity, they should be straight with electorates about what they mean. And they should say what they mean, and then do it. I’m afraid this backstop is becoming very attractive to the EU not to offer us anything further. And therefore it is essentially a trap.

The Government should make preparations faster than it is for leaving without a deal. It should be ready to do that because it’s an essential part of the negotiations. It’s not to say that they want to leave without a deal, or even that I want to leave without a deal, but that it would be something a wise government would have spent much more time preparing. It’s been weak about that.”

The other thing that it should do is make it absolutely clear that the money is in return for a trade deal. And if we don’t get a trade deal, if we don’t have it ready to sign immediately after the 29th March, then the EU will not get any money from us. And that no payments will be made until that deal is made. The money is our strongest card, and it seems at the moment to have been given away without anything in return. So I think we need some backbone in these negotiations.

I fear we’re getting to the point where you wonder whether the Government really wants to leave at all.”

Theophile

mayonnaise wrote: »

Graham, please can you explain, in simple words please.
How come we went from topping the G7 GDP growth list before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?
How come we outperformed each and every Eurozone economy before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?

Thanks a lot.

It's because of all them remoaners talking down the economy.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Graham, please can you explain, in simple words please.
How come we went from topping the G7 GDP growth list before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?
How come we outperformed each and every Eurozone economy before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?

Thanks a lot.

2 & 2 don't make 5.

The UK had been outpacing other countries - naturally that has to come to an end at some point - you can't just continue growing at a pace which outstrips everyone else.

Second point would be debt. The UK populace took on a staggering amount of debt over the past 3-4 years. A lot of that will have fuelled spending. PCP is just one single example. But that party too, has to come to an end.

Looking at growth alone misses a huge amount. Have a look at record employment. Increased exports.

Third point - we are a tiny country in comparison to the G7 nations. Far easier to tweak policy here, hence quicker results. Far harder to turn a cargo ship than it is a small vessel.

Sure, you'll poo poo all of this - but which of us was shouting that we would have an instant recession if we voted leave? Now were arguing over growth that isn't keeping up with the G7, like that's some kind of new thing. It's not, we lagged behind at points before brexit and would have done if we remained also.

The problem with the whole brexit argument is that no one knows where we might be today if we had voted remain. Some would argue much better off. But in reality, is that really the case? How do we know? We had massive hits while we were in the EU. In reality, if we had voted remain, as so many of the factors affecting as are global factors, probability and any sound mind would suggest we'd probably be int he same place financially as we are now.

We will never know though - but somehow, it seems many remainers use this unknown to claim they are somehow right - including yourself.

There hasn't been a recession. The EU hasn't denied all talks with us. There is progress, allbeit it very slowly with movement on both sides. The US is talking to us regarding trade agreements. Car manufacturers haven't all disspeared, infact we have more now than we did pre-vote. London still stands and holds the HQ's of the worlds banks.

So argue over a pointless growth figure if you like. I'm pretty confident in my stance before the brexit vote and don't have to pick on singular datasets to make a small, if not irrelevant point. Are you?

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

How come we went from topping the G7 GDP growth list before the referendum to bottom of the pile now?

Very simple. Productivity. Along with an economy that's been reliant on consumer spend for too long.

There's no right to anything. Everything has to be earnt.

Moby

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/frances-ogrady-theresa-may-tuc-one-meeting-a8363886.html
Our TUC leader has apparently had more meetings with Merkel. People like May and Mogg despise the workers. Their aim is to create a bargain basement off shore pound shop with low workers rights while Germany stays on the road of high quality high standards and proper workers rights.