Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Jacob Rees-Mogg makes some excellent points.

A hard Brexit suits him so he's one of the few people that would actually do it. For everyone else it's not an option and everyone knows. You can't succeed in negotiations by threatening to walk out when everyone knows you won't.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Mayo, can you explain, in simple words please.

How come when UK growth was out performing most EU countries back in 2017, you claimed "Ah, that's because we haven't left yet."

UK growth didn't outperform most EU countries in 2017, so it's highly unlikely I ever claimed that.



Was that simple enough for you?

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

A hard Brexit suits him so he's one of the few people that would actually do it. For everyone else it's not an option and everyone knows. You can't succeed in negotiations by threatening to walk out when everyone knows you won't.

You've just endorsed JRM's point. The EU know we'll back down at every opportunity.

From the very start we should have planned for WTO terms as our default position, assuming the EU won't be helpful, and said "Hey, if you want to continue your massive export surplus with us we'll listen to any trade offers you care to make"

At the very least we would have spared ourselves the current humiliation of appeasement.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

From the very start we should have planned for WTO terms as our default position

Yes, we should have made it very clear to the EU that we're willing to wipe 18% off our GDP if they don't play ball. :doh:

https://metro.co.uk/2017/10/11/hard-brexit-would-cost-400-billion-wipe-18-off-gdp-and-cause-a-recession-6994076/

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

From the very start we should have planned for WTO terms as our default position, assuming the EU won't be helpful, and said "Hey, if you want to continue your massive export surplus with us we'll listen to any trade offers you care to make"

We could have planned for it from the start, with a million page white paper, but the EU still wouldn't believe we'd be willing to do it, because it's economic suicide. You need to give the EU some credit - they are better at this stuff than we are.


Outside of hard Brexiteers (like Mogg), there's no appetetite for WTO terms. Even he knows how destructive it'd be, but it suits his aims and he doesn't care about the serfs.


So given that it's never actually been an option, and May shot down Mogg over this last week, can we move on to pretending we can outbluff the EU?

System

Maybe it's time to remind the EU that they need us more than we need them?

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, we should have made it very clear to the EU that we're willing to wipe 18% off our GDP if they don't play ball. :doh:

https://metro.co.uk/2017/10/11/hard-brexit-would-cost-400-billion-wipe-18-off-gdp-and-cause-a-recession-6994076/

Just 1 opinion from a bank nobody has heard of, and even then that's 18% off GDP growth, not GDP. And even then this is over the next 12 years to 2030.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

We could have planned for it from the start, with a million page white paper, but the EU still wouldn't believe we'd be willing to do it, because it's economic suicide. You need to give the EU some credit - they are better at this stuff than we are.


Outside of hard Brexiteers (like Mogg), there's no appetetite for WTO terms. Even he knows how destructive it'd be, but it suits his aims and he doesn't care about the serfs.


So given that it's never actually been an option, and May shot down Mogg over this last week, can we move on to pretending we can outbluff the EU?

Typical remainer 'No Can Do' attitude.

You don't believe in anything other than surrendering to the EU at every opportunity.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Just 1 opinion from a bank nobody has heard of, and even then that's 18% off GDP growth, not GDP. And even then this is over the next 12 years to 2030.

Yup it's growth, but you have to admit 18% more growth would be great, eh?

Even the UK Gov's own papers put the best case scenario from WTO as being an 8% loss.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Typical remainer 'No Can Do' attitude.

You don't believe in anything other than surrendering to the EU at every opportunity.

I believe that we need to stop playing games with the EU - they know we're bluffing - and get on to making proposals that they might accept. We need to work with them to get anything meaningful out of this instead of acting like toddlers.


There's nothing 'No Can Do' about acknowledging we're totally outclassed, we just need a change of strategy.


I'm keen to make a success out of Brexit, but no-one has been able to tell me how to do that yet.