Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
It's no more blind faith than thinking Brexit will work, since it relies on pragmatism rather than fanaticism.
...

It's blind faith that the attitudes of others outside the UK will change.

Whereas Brexit is arguably blind faith in our own ability to carve out a decent future.

It really depends who you put your trust in.

I don't see any real evidence that the UK has been a priority for the EU political elite for decades now.

The focus has been on expansion Eastwards. Hundreds of billions of Euros have been invested in that direction.

Do you really think they would do the same with the UK, when any future government could call another referendum to leave? We have already shown our propensity to vote against their wishes.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

Any member of a club that has travelled this far to leave the club would find it hard to reverse the decision. Does the club want Britain to stay. I am not so sure.

It's not really a club; it's a marriage of convenience.

And it's not really leaving; it's more akin to a messy divorce.

Herzlos

iro wrote: »

The comparison then, when we're debating re-joining is not re-joining Vs what he had before we threw it away, but re-joining Vs what we have at the time.

Correct, and the terms will be much, much worse than what we had before,

But potentially much, much better than we'd have as a 3rd country.

I do not think that remoaniacs really understood what Brexit was about. Brexit was not just about voting to Leave it was also about ensuring that there was no chance that we would ever return. After all if MPs had voted against Article 50 then we would still be members on the same terms.

No it wasn't. Nothing was ever mentioned about returning. You'll also need to accept that since the youth want to be in the EU, the odds of re-joining will increase over time, especially if Brexit is bad. Why would they stick to the self destructive decision of previous generations when they can rejoin and start to recover economically?

If Leave had one was a decent margin (even 60/40) you'd probably be right, at least for about 20 years. But it didn't.

Article 50 is irrevocable unilaterally and everyone agrees about that, it would require the agreement of all the other parties.

The guy who wrote it says it's revocable, as did the EU.

Enterprise_1701C

iro wrote: »

Remoaniacs need to come to terms with the fact that they have destroyed any chance of any of the UK rejoining.

We have stuck two fingers to Barnier et al and they simply cannot deal with that.

Any terms for revoking Article 50 would mean the UK losing the rebate, joining the Euro and accepting unlimited numbers of 'migrants' which would utterly destroy our social system.

Remoaniacs thought they would ruin Brexit, all they have done is close the door on the UK rejoining.

Well done flakies! We could not have done it without you!

If you are talking about my post, I did not mean revoke Article 50, I meant revoke the European Communities Act (I think that's it) which is what took us into the Common Market all those years ago. If I am wrong about that, revoke whichever one it is that means we are in the eu. In other words, tear up the contract. Walk out without looking back. This would surely make Ariticle 50 irrelevant.

Pauciloquent_1_2

Herzlos wrote: »

I'd love to think more like a leaver, just in case the cognative dissonance is on my side and Brexit is actually a good thing. Any ideas where I should start reading to become convinced?

The "cognative [sic] dissonance" is indeed on your side because this thread is full of examples of how so far Brexit is a good thing, certainly compared to what remainers told us the immediate consequences of even daring to vote leave would be.
But here goes with a few highlights just to remind you.

Instead of recession and many job losses we were warned of the country still grows steadily and employment is at an all-time high.
Instead of immediate emergency budget or promises that the EU keeps Europe free from Nationalism we see our deficit fall to a 16-year low and nationalism rise across mainland EU with nationalist parties now holding seats in the European Parliament too.

Inflation didn't rise extraordinarily; wages are starting to rise above inflation; productivity is rising at the fastest rate for years; and lots more too.

Yes this is before we have left but we were repeatedly warned that it would not be like this.
Yes this is before we have actually left but much can affect the future besides Brexit; look at recent North Korea, Russia or middle east worries for example.

If and when you begin to accept the positives like this you will see that even if Brexit is not necessarily a good thing for you personally, it is so far certainly not the disaster we were repeatedly told it would be.
If it does ever become a disaster which personally I think doubtful you can try again to tell others where the cognitive dissonance was but for now it is obviously with many remainers.

Enterprise_1701C

Herzlos wrote: »

But potentially much, much better than we'd have as a 3rd country.

It could NEVER be better - we would have to join the euro and agree to fiscal union.

I dread to think what we would be paying in with all the countries they want to join, not one of them would be net contributors.

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

It could NEVER be better - we would have to join the euro and agree to fiscal union.

I dread to think what we would be paying in with all the countries they want to join, not one of them would be net contributors.

You're certainly not alone in thinking that literally nothing could e worse than being in the EU, because of irrational hatred and lack of critical thinking. If you care to think about it I'm sure even you could find a line where you'd admit Brexit was a mistake.

For around half of the currentvoters, the bar is lower than yours.
There will be a point where Shengen, Euro and fiscal union will be a price worth paying, because it's better than what we've got now. I reckon enough people would feel a hard brexit (just walking away as you bluster about) would be bad enough to justify re-joining as a new member with none of our opts outs. Over time that ratio will move towards rejoining as the youth want their futures back. Any inferior deal will be squarely blamed on the older generation who once again screwed them over.

And lets be fair here, if it meant a better quality of life for me kids I'd vote back in in a heartbeat.

Herzlos

Pauciloquent_1 wrote: »

The "cognative [sic] dissonance" is indeed on your side because this thread is full of examples of how so far Brexit is a good thing, certainly compared to what remainers told us the immediate consequences of even daring to vote leave would be.
But her goes with a few highlights just to remind you.

That's a list of reasons things aren't as bad as feared. None of that is actually good, especially in context.

What's good about Brexit? What is better than it'd be without it?/

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

It's blind faith that the attitudes of others outside the UK will change.

Whereas Brexit is arguably blind faith in our own ability to carve out a decent future.

It really depends who you put your trust in.

I actually agree with you. But do you seriously trust the Tories, under May, Gove and Davis, to be able to pull this off?

With a good leader, Brexit could be great. With a competent leader, Brexit could be pretty good. I wouldn't Trust May* to pick up my Starbucks order.

*Or Corbyn, or Cable, or any of the current party leaders or candidates. I think Sturgeon could probably do it, but she'd rather immolate herself than carry out Brexit.

mayonnaise

mrginge wrote: »

Sorry, are you saying we are not allowed to leave unless the EU let us?

Apology accepted, but poster said:

esuhl wrote: »

leaving is still subject to mutual agreement.

mrginge wrote: »

If so this is brand new information that no-one else in the world seems to have realised.

One wonders why our government spends so much time and energy on reaching such mutual agreement. Maybe you should write them a
letter and let them share in your infinite wisdom.