Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

No I didnt think we had EU over a barrel but I though they might do a bit more to protect one of their bigest export markets especially when you consider that they export more to us they we do to them.

I would imagine they will still end up with a deal at the end of all this, if we push for full cliff edge WTO, the howls from the major manufacturers will cause a lot of issues politically

They'll eventually offer us a slightly tweaked trade deal based on one of the standard models and we'll end up accepting it in the end, because the alternative is economically extremely damaging.

Not much of a reason for the EU to bend over backwards and offer something more generous than they have offered any other nation, particularly when that deal will then be used by other nations as a benchmark for their deal.

I don't expect the EU to be generous, but I also don't expect them to be unreasonable or inflict economic "punishment" (we will end up doing that all on our own).

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

I would imagine they will still end up with a deal at the end of all this, if we push for full cliff edge WTO, the howls from the major manufacturers will cause a lot of issues politically

They'll eventually offer us a slightly tweaked trade deal based on one of the standard models and we'll end up accepting it in the end, because the alternative is economically extremely damaging.

Not much of a reason for the EU to bend over backwards and offer something more generous than they have offered any other nation, particularly when that deal will then be used by other nations as a benchmark for their deal.

I don't expect the EU to be generous, but I also don't expect them to be unreasonable or inflict economic "punishment" (we will end up doing that all on our own).

We will have to see as they export more to us than anyone else with the possible exception of USA and we are fully aligned already I would have thought they could have come up with something better than existing deals. They export 3x as much to us as they do Canada and Norway combined.

wunferall

Filo25 wrote: »

FOM has nothing to do with North African immigration to Italy though, does it.

The Single Market obviously sets out rights of movement for EU workers within the EU, it says little about how to treat mass migration from outside the EU.

Yes of course FOM has much to do with immigration to Italy. What happens with these migrants once they are out of migrant centres and are free to roam the Schengen area, and why have Austria stationed troops at the Italian border or France closed their border leading to problems in Ventemiglia?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYM4LIzGqkE
It looks like you're struggling and failing in your desire to suggest that FOM and immigration aren't linked. Oh and It's not just EU workers that Schengen applies to, is it? Maybe you need to read again what the Schengen area is, namely no passport or any other border controls at any mutual border. Though of course the EU have ignored this particular EU freedom recently, as they will when it suits.

Rough_Justice

Hungary recognizes that Brexit is a failure for the EU.

“In Hungary’s opinion, Britain’s exit from the European Union is extremely unfortunate from the EU’s perspective,” said Szijj!rt!, quoted on official government website kormany.hu. “We severely regret the decision of the British, but only they have the right to decide on the future of their country. The situation is a failure for the European Commission, because the British Government made it clear what it would require to remain a member of the European Union, but the EC did not hear what the British had to say.”

https://bbj.hu/politics/brexit-a-failure-for-the-ec-szijjarto-tells-johnson_146369

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

EU nationals account for 5% of england NHS doctors and nurses.

EU nationals account for 5% of england population.

If every EU national left tomorrow, we would have exactly the same doctor patient ratio as we do now.

The stats for nurses will be rather different, mind.
But then the UK is adept at sourcing English-speaking nurses from non-EU countries already.

Rough_Justice

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No interest in the challenges the UK has faced from FOM. Yet a core European member shouts about immigration, and there's sympathy.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-europe-analysis/italian-vote-heralds-tougher-eu-stance-on-migration-idUKKCN1GI281

Too late now and the same wasn't said with for example Greece, was it?
As you say, not a core member.
Hungarians as we know aren't happy either.
Strangely Macron makes no mention of their wishes.

The government spokesman on Monday at the Hungarian Embassy in London told Hungarian and British journalists that Hungary was scolded at the address that it did not respect European values !!!8203;!!!8203;and acted according to rules, but "we see that it is actually the European Union does not comply with the requirements ".

According to Zolt!n Kov!cs, "a bad idea is any kind of quota system or algorithm aimed at spreading the consequences of illegal immigration" in Europe.

It is said that this is an impracticable version of European solidarity.

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=hu&u=https://magyaridok.hu/kulfold/kovacs-zoltan-londonban-tovabbra-migracio-legfobb-kihivas-2861025/&prev=search

Rough_Justice

I would respond to Moby's reply to my post last night but honestly I CBA to lower myself to his levels of derision.
Instead I will post this from Der Spiegel which makes an interesting read for anyone interested in a German's POV of this coalition.
"Where's the Enthusiasm?
Germany's New Milquetoast Government"

Finally, more than five months after the general election last September, Germany will soon have a new government. The chancellor is set to be formally elected by German parliament on March 14, and her cabinet ministers will be sworn in that same day. Never in the country's postwar history has it been so difficult to assemble a governing coalition. Never was the helplessness of the established political parties so exposed for all to see.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-spd-approves-new-angela-merkel-coalition-a-1196502.html

buglawton

Filo25 wrote: »

I would imagine they will still end up with a deal at the end of all this, if we push for full cliff edge WTO, the howls from the major manufacturers will cause a lot of issues politically

They'll eventually offer us a slightly tweaked trade deal based on one of the standard models and we'll end up accepting it in the end, because the alternative is economically extremely damaging.

Not much of a reason for the EU to bend over backwards and offer something more generous than they have offered any other nation, particularly when that deal will then be used by other nations as a benchmark for their deal.

I don't expect the EU to be generous, but I also don't expect them to be unreasonable or inflict economic "punishment" (we will end up doing that all on our own).

As anyone who's secured a good deal buying a car by getting a discount on the 'final' price will know, it's very important to have one key weapon at the ready - the willingness to walk away from an unsatisfactory deal.

If the EU really does want to make a 'take it or leave it' situation of this, then the 'walk' option must be one our negotiators have the authority to use.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No interest in the challenges the UK has faced from FOM. Yet a core European member shouts about immigration, and there's sympathy.



https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-europe-analysis/italian-vote-heralds-tougher-eu-stance-on-migration-idUKKCN1GI281

Says Macron whilst at the same time keeping the border near Menton closed to prevent migrants entering France from Italy.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

As anyone who's secured a good deal buying a car by getting a discount on the 'final' price will know, it's very important to have one key weapon at the ready - the willingness to walk away from an unsatisfactory deal.

If the EU really does want to make a 'take it or leave it' situation of this, then the 'walk' option must be one our negotiators have the authority to use.

That approach works when buying a car. Not with codifying a trade agreement with you largest and closest market. Everyone knows we're not going to walk away.