Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

ukcarper wrote: »

If the EU is so great why does it have to set an example of us just because we want to leave especially when you considered it will hurt their own economy.

This reply should be in the thread titled The future of the EU. However that thread does not excist yet.

I don!!!8217;t think the EU needs to make an example of Britain. One thing that would be clear to any other country wishing to leave the EU is,

Don!!!8217;t rush in to it through a referendum
Get all your ducks in a line before issuing the A50
Know what you want to replace the membership
Elected leaders do not bicker in public
Recognise that the EU has its rules and will not compromise.
Don!!!8217;t think it will be easy.
Don!!!8217;t think they need you more than we need them

Most off all recognise you are the country that asked to leave.

cepheus

‘One senior Conservative says:”Probably 80% of Tory MPs, and the majority of ministers, don’t think Brexit is in the national interest but they feel gagged by the referendum.’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pm-is-torn-between-duty-and-brexit-reality-rlmbzlc3l

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Once again talking about the EU and it’s future. What does Britain care. For that matter why do any of the Brexiter posters care. If they want to debate the future of the EU they should start a new thread with that name.
This thread is, mainly, to discuss Brexit.

I know it’s one of your favourite lines but the current and future travails of the EU are wholly relevant to our journey out of the EU, especially if that journey is going to be extended/effected via a transitional period.
Rabidly pro-EU social democratic politicians on mainland Europe are slowly being sidelined or neutered by elections and public opinion.
I wonder if Cameron was traipsing around the movers and shakers of the EU now as he did in 2016, if the quite limited concessions he was asking for would now be seen in a different light.
Mainland Europe is changing and this will effect Brexit and the incumbent negotiations.

ukcarper

gfplux wrote: »

This reply should be in the thread titled The future of the EU. However that thread does not excise yet.

I don’t think the EU needs to make an example of Britain. One thing that would be clear to any other country wishing to leave the EU is,

Don’t rush in to it through a referendum
Get all your ducks in a line before issuing the A50
Know what you want to replace the membership
Elected leaders do not bicker in public
Recognise that the EU has its rules and will not compromise.
Don’t think it will be easy.
Don’t think they need you more than we need them

Most off all recognise you are the country that asked to leave.

Why I was replying to a post that said they were.

I agree things have been handled badly but that is because like a lot of remainers here the government and opposition were so arrogant that didnt think leave would win.

But the fact that the EU is prepared to sacrifice a significant proportion of its economy seemingly to discourage other members from leaving is telling and has changed my opinion of EU.

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

Why I was replying to a post that said they were.

I agree things have been handled badly but that is because like a lot of remainers here the government and opposition were so arrogant that didnt think leave would win.

But the fact that the EU is prepared to sacrifice a significant proportion of its economy seemingly to discourage other members from leaving is telling and has changed my opinion of EU.

I can only think this implies you thought we did have the EU over a barrel and they were therefore going to offer us a better deal than any other trading partner they have outside the EU.

So far the EU line has seemed to indicate that their base for negotiation will depend upon what we are willing to offer them in return and we will then build a similar relationship to the templates already in place with other nations.

If we aren't willing to remain in the Customs Union or Single Market then why exactly would they offer us a deal considerably better to the one which has been painstakingly negotiated with Canada?

From what I can see this isn't a case of us being punished to discourage others from leaving, we just aren't being done any special favours we seem to think that we deserve. There is obviously a selfish aspect to that from the EU point of view, if people start getting offered fantastic deals outside the EU without any of the obligations members have then that really would threaten the integrity of the EU.

I haven't seen anything yet which I would view as "unfair" from the EU, more a case of unrealistic expectations in the UK being disappointed.

wunferall

gfplux wrote: »

I am looking forward to Tuesday as Politico tells me.

It looks like you have been disappointed again. Publication has been postponed according to the below, see entry at 09:16. Methinks somebody somewhere is feverishly editing and retyping following Friday but their fingers are not quite fast enough to meet todays now-failed deadline.

We had been expecting to get the EU’s guidelines for the EU-UK post-Brexit trade talks today. Publication of that document, which will constitute the EU’s fullest response yet to Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech, has been postponed.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/06/brexit-david-davis-eu-scrutiny-committee-eu-firms-more-worried-about-protecting-single-market-than-maintaining-trade-with-uk-says-barnier-aide-politics-live

wunferall

From that same source is this re: the Irish border from IDS, saying that many in the EU are unhappy with the EU Commission:

I think that there is more and more a pressing sense that they [the commission] have got this wrong. They insisted on this stage by stage process. But what is actually going on - I’ve talked to a lot of representatives of various countries around and there’s a lot of under-the-surface anger about the way that the commission is insisting on completing the process about the interim period, or the implementation period, without recognising that the deal that follows has a whole bearing on everything that will happen ...

Unless we get to the point of a free trade arrangement, we cannot dictate what those borders [on the island of Ireland] will be like. So they have genuinely made a major mistake.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/mar/06/brexit-david-davis-eu-scrutiny-committee-eu-firms-more-worried-about-protecting-single-market-than-maintaining-trade-with-uk-says-barnier-aide-politics-live

Moby

cogito wrote: »

It seems to me that things are different this time. Just because things have blown over in the past doesn't mean that they will do so in the future. Italy has problems that are virtually insoluble with 15% unemployment, 35% youth unemployment, a stagnant economy which is smaller than it was before the GFC, fourth highest public debt in the world at 132% of GDP and a small problem with immigration. Italy has no way of taking independent action to solve these problems and being stuck in the euro is unable to devalue like it used to. Debt restructuring measures are nigh on impossible as much of the debt which hasn't been scooped up by the ECB is in the hands of Italians and Italian banks. It cannot adopt stimulus measures without breaking EU rules so inevitably things can only get worse.

Merkel And her coalition are far from stabilised and the government is yet to be sworn in. Meanwhile there are tensions within both major parties as aspirants for ministerial positions are hacked off with the way they have been carved up. I would be surprised if the coalition lasted very long. The only reason SPD agreed to it was because their support is in freefall and had they not done so, another election would have seen them overtaken by AfD as the second largest party but the price of that agreement has been that AfD are now the official opposition. A right wing party that did not even exist five years ago.

As for Macron, he is struggling to carry his promised reforms. Only to be expected if you try to be all things to all men.

Your analysis/prediction could turn out accurate..... only time will tell but even then I'd say this only emphasises the importance of the EU as the institution for dealing with such crises.

Moby

ilovehouses wrote: »

IDS saying many in the EU are unhappy with the EU's position on the Irish border is pretty meaningless. Seems unlikely IDS would be the obvious confidante for all these unhappy people.

Who cares what IDS thinks about anything. He'll not be an MP soon if our neighbouring Labour Party's campaign achieves its objective. Any tory in a London seat is at risk....ask Boris! https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/06/britain-eu-motives-brexit Good article on the EU strategy and the reasons.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

Your analysis/prediction could turn out accurate..... only time will tell but even then I'd say this only emphasises the importance of the EU as the institution for dealing with such crises.

I find it hard to see how the EU has the capabilty of dealing with the Italian situation. If it could, it would surely have done so long ago. The obvious solutions are no more available to the Italians than they were to the Greeks but whereas Greece was insignificant enough to be crushed, that is not possible with the third largest economy in the union.