Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Herzlos wrote: »

May has explicitly ruled out a wto Brexit, but we all know it wasn't going to happen anyway.

Indeed.

And as a WTO Brexit is the very definition of a bad deal, then it's always been clear that this was never on the cards.

In fact thinking of countries that trade on just WTO terms, without any FTA's or other agreements in place, there's only one I can think of... North Korea.

The EU has around 35 FTA's in place, but also has 850 odd other regulatory agreements covering virtually every country in the World.

Around 65% of our trade is to either the EU or to countries it has FTA agreements with, but almost 100% of our trade is to countries covered by an EU agreement designed to reduce either tariff or non-tariff barriers.

And as non-tariff barriers are as big an obstacle to trade as tariffs it's no wonder even the most strident cabinet Brexiteers have had a sudden epiphany about the wisdom (or lack thereof) of crashing out without a deal following their own impact reports being covered at May's recent 'away-day'.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rough_Justice wrote: »

"How is Italy a sign of EU success?" Post # 6951

Italy was politically dysfunctional long before it joined the EU.

Italy remains politically dysfunctional today.

The EU is pretty great and all, but they're not miracle workers....:D

Thrugelmir

cepheus wrote: »

It'll set an example to other countries that the EU means business,

Not advisable to use a stick to keep your subjects under control. More akin to a tyranny. Than a democratic union. History is littered with occasions when the peasants have enough and end up revolting.

Herzlos

Rough_Justice wrote: »

Where?
You're deliberately ignoring "no deal is better than a bad deal' again, aren't you?
As said AGAIN on the Marr show, making it twice in a few days.

May said:

Others have suggested we negotiate a free trade agreement similar to that which Canada has recently negotiated with the EU !!!8211; or trade on World Trade Organisation terms. But these options would mean a significant reduction in our access to each other!!!8217;s markets compared to that which we currently enjoy.

Thus wto isn't suitable.

'No deal is better' than a bad deal is a meaningless sounds bite; we all know who is the worst possible deal.

Richard_Overton_2911

Herzlos wrote: »

It is their problem but even if they wanted to, they can't give us a special deal.

The border issue is of our making and we've agreed to sort it. Again there's nothing the eu can do.

Why not?.......Canada has a special deal, Switzerland has a special deal and even Jersey has a special deal so why not the UK ?....... Jersey has a bespoke deal and much of Jersey's financial dealings are accepted by the EU on face value. The EU "Trusts" Jersey to do the right thing in terms of its fight against tax evasion and money laundering so why doesn't the EU trust the UK with regards a trade deal or a borderless Irish Border?.. The fact is that Jesery has cherry picked a deal with the EU's blessing.

http://www.channelislands.eu/eu-and-the-channel-islands/#taxation

https://www.gov.je/Government/Departments/JerseyWorld/Pages/RelationshipEUandUK.aspx

I would just add that over the entire 40+yrs of being a member of the EU the UK has always played the game with a straight bat, abided by the rules including the spirit of
the rules when other haven't. Look no further than France when its allowed its port workers or fisherment to blockade the Channel ports and prevent UK businesses form trading within the EU as is their right. Look at the State aid France has used to support its industry ,much of which may well have broken EU rules or at the very least pushed the boundaries. Or Germany which has run a trade surplus over and above EU rules and for how long?.

There is no reason whatsoever why the UK and EU cannot solve the Irish border issue with technology and trust. The reason the border issue hasn't been solved is purely down to EU intransigence and nothing more.


If there is to be a hard border then let it be on the EU side and they can live with the concequences of a wall they built............ The UK can sleep well in the knowledge we did our best .

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Brexit isn't going to turn English sparkling wine into Champagne.

Champagne is a region of France so would be somewhat difficult. Likewise the name has been protected for over 100 years. So existed long before the EU as well.

Herzlos

Richard_Overton_2911 wrote: »

Why not?.......Canada has a special deal, Switzerland has a special deal and even Jersey has a special deal so why not the UK ?

We're able to take the deals given to Canada or Switzerland. I don't know anything about Jersey. Those are now standard deals, and we're not going to do better than them.

If there is to be a hard border then let it be on the EU side and they can live with the concequences of a wall they built............ The UK can sleep well in the knowledge we did our best .

If there's a hard border the blame lies 100% with the uk. We created the conditions that require it and failed to provide any workable solution. I don't blame Mays team for not solving it; it's not possible.

Moby

Rough_Justice wrote: »

Since there are so many posts I think a round-up from the weekend might be in order.

* Remainers think discussing Champagne is more important than discussing the increasing likelihood of a WTO Brexit being forced because of EU intractibility.

* US investment banks hire more in London than anywhere else in Europe.

* Siemens are building a new train factory in Goole.

* Protectionism and the applying of tariffs on goods is not a form of price rigging it seems. (Yes, the Champagne" saga again.) Somebody should explain this to Trump & the EU and see if they agree because currently it seems not.

* UK business growth is at a 2-year high.

* Italy will (eventually) have a government which AT BEST wants revised treaties with the EU and also wants protectionism for Italian products which the EU does not allow. At worst they will want out of the Euro and even their own referendum if Italians don't get what they want.

That was not convincing at all. Real barrel scraping effort. Try harder mate;)
Now back to the real world in which we source information from people who know what they are talking about:-

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/06/eu-brexit-adviser-deals-blow-to-theresa-mays-free-trade-proposal

Theresa May!!!8217;s chances of securing a deep free-trade deal with the EU were dealt a blow when Stefaan de Rynck, the main adviser to the EU!!!8217;s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, stressed that the rules of the single market required far more than her chief proposal !!!8211; a mutual recognition of standards.

Also..... Italy will blow over. It always does. Don't look there to boost your hopes for evidence of a crumbling EU. I note you also neglected to mention that the main driver of the future.... Merkel is back and stabilised. She and Macron will decide our future between them thanks to the Brexiters.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

Also..... Italy will blow over. It always does. Don't look there to boost your hopes for evidence of a crumbling EU. I note you also neglected to mention that the main driver of the future.... Merkel is back and stabilised. She and Macron will decide our future between them thanks to the Brexiters.

It seems to me that things are different this time. Just because things have blown over in the past doesn't mean that they will do so in the future. Italy has problems that are virtually insoluble with 15% unemployment, 35% youth unemployment, a stagnant economy which is smaller than it was before the GFC, fourth highest public debt in the world at 132% of GDP and a small problem with immigration. Italy has no way of taking independent action to solve these problems and being stuck in the euro is unable to devalue like it used to. Debt restructuring measures are nigh on impossible as much of the debt which hasn't been scooped up by the ECB is in the hands of Italians and Italian banks. It cannot adopt stimulus measures without breaking EU rules so inevitably things can only get worse.

Merkel And her coalition are far from stabilised and the government is yet to be sworn in. Meanwhile there are tensions within both major parties as aspirants for ministerial positions are hacked off with the way they have been carved up. I would be surprised if the coalition lasted very long. The only reason SPD agreed to it was because their support is in freefall and had they not done so, another election would have seen them overtaken by AfD as the second largest party but the price of that agreement has been that AfD are now the official opposition. A right wing party that did not even exist five years ago.

As for Macron, he is struggling to carry his promised reforms. Only to be expected if you try to be all things to all men.

gfplux

Rough_Justice wrote: »

More brown trouser times ahead for the EU as 5 Star are asking to form a government in Italy as are the League, leading to what Juncker described last month as the worst-case scenario for the EU.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700

Parliament doesn't reconvene in Italy until March 23rd and it will not be until after then that their president starts talks about forming a government so they are in for a bit of a wait.
It also completely destroys any Europhile delusions that populism within the EU is in decline.

Talking of which I notice that no-one has tried answering this which I see was posted earlier; I wonder why?


Fair point IMHO.
How is Italy a sign of EU success?

Once again talking about the EU and it’s future. What does Britain care. For that matter why do any of the Brexiter posters care. If they want to debate the future of the EU they should start a new thread with that name.
This thread is, mainly, to discuss Brexit.