Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Lornapink

What cherry picking does the EU want from the UK?

Our £40 bn.
They enjoy the security UK military projection provides.

If EU plays hard with us, well we then back Trump in demanding entire EU pays 2% of GDP for military. They're already arguing about who will foot the bill created by UK's absent EU membership fee.
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They want good access to our lucrative market which is so vital for certain core economies that fund the EU. It is irrelevant to cite the export proportion of the entire 28. Harming their exports means reduced tax collection and harming the already badly stretched EU budget.

They want access to the vast capital markets the City provides. No EU financial centre comes anywhere close. Hindering that capital flow, damages EU economy.

If one can cherry pick, then so can two.

cogito

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'd disagree with the argument presented because Rees-Mogg would be more likely to get his hard brexit with minimum ties with Europe if there was no deal. This is someone who argued Nigel Farage should be made deputy PM - he's right out there.

I recall him saying that Farage would make a better deputy PM than Clegg. Hard to argue with that.

LHW99

Whatever happens, Barnier;s viewpoint will be brought into sharp focus tomorrow with the publication of the EUs draft negotiating guidelines for the post-Brexit trade deal. The Guardians Dan Boffey has a preview here which suggests they will be pretty vague but make ;clear that a whole range of proposals made by May in her Mansion House speech on Friday are to be rejected.;

So vagueness is OK from the EU, but not from the UK?

Andy_L

Lornapink wrote: »

If EU plays hard with us, well we then back Trump in demanding entire EU pays 2% of GDP for military. They're already arguing about who will foot the bill created by UK's absent EU membership fee.

Thats a NATO thing not an EU thing

cepheus

Does anyone on this thread know of a realistic solution to the NI border issue without the Tories betraying the DUP and placing a hard border in the Irish sea, or as confirmed a few days ago we don't retain the Customs Union? This is a top EU lawyer's view:

Warning the government of the impact on Ireland of Britain leaving the single market and customs nion, he added that “there is no solution which would permit no hard border” with Northern Ireland.

“Thus the responsibility to find a solution to a problem which was well known before the referendum is a British responsibility.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-latest-top-eu-lawyer-warns-theresa-may-over-dangerous-lack-of-reality-in-damning-intervention-a3781421.html

Rinoa

cepheus wrote: »

Does anyone on this thread know of a realistic solution to the NI border issue without the Tories betraying the DUP and placing a hard border in the Irish sea, or as confirmed a few days ago we don't retain the Customs Union? This is a top EU lawyer's view:



https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-latest-top-eu-lawyer-warns-theresa-may-over-dangerous-lack-of-reality-in-damning-intervention-a3781421.html

There is a very easy solution to this problem.

The EU offers a super free trade agreement thereby negating any need for one.

Balls in the EU court.

cepheus

Rinoa wrote: »

There is a very easy solution to this problem.

The EU offers a super free trade agreement thereby negating any need for one.

Balls in the EU court.

I said a realistic solution, not the fantasy world you see in the right wing press and even on many BBC politics programmes nowadays. The EU holds the cards unless the UK wants to crash out without a deal, and incur a significant cost, something a very large majority of our electorate rejects.

Lornapink

cepheus wrote: »

The EU holds the cards unless the UK wants to crash out without a deal


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So the EU doesn't need our £40bn?
Why then is there much argument as to who will pick up our lost annual club fee from 2021, if as you say £40bn divorce fee is of no importance?
Who will cover out lost £40bn divorce fee if as you say the money is not important (as they hold all the cards)?

Lornapink

cepheus wrote: »

Does anyone on this thread know of a realistic solution to the NI border issue without the Tories betraying the DUP and placing a hard border in the Irish sea, or as confirmed a few days ago we don't retain the Customs Union?

We already manage different tax, animal welfare and currency border.
Explain what the issue is with goods and services?
97% of WTO goods entering the UK are never inspected - modern systems allow for trusted trader status and so on.


Why would we need to inspect a churn of milk, other than the occasional factory / farm inspection to confirm trusted trader status?

Lornapink

Andy_L wrote: »

Thats a NATO thing not an EU thing

Trump is calling for all European nations to pay on the 2% of GDP to defence commitment.
EU will struggle to fill our lost annual membership fee, let alone our £40bn divorce if no deal is done.

I'm saying we could back Trumps call for the 2% military spend, putting EU nations in an even more pungent financial position.

It's another of our aces.