Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

It's as plane as the nose on your face that in the end trade will not be harmed.

Agreed. But the big question is this: Who'll violate their red lines to ensure it?

Rough_Justice

The dissenting remain sqauwkers get more anxious with each passing day as March approaches and as they hear more evidence of Brexit really meaning that we leave the EU.
:T
Why March?
Well that's when the SPD vote on their involvement in Germany's coalition. If it doesn't get the go-ahead - and nothing is certain - it will mean another election. Which in turns leads to the likelihood of an even larger AfD vote share.
It's also when the Italian elections are and - again - nothing is certain there either.
Italy's Northern League dangles EU exit in election campaign

The Northern League, a key partner in the coalition expected to win next month’s parliamentary election, would aim to pull Italy out of the European Union if Brussels refused to re-negotiate fiscal and immigration rules, its economics chief said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-election-eu-league/italys-northern-league-dangles-eu-exit-in-election-campaign-idUSKCN1FX28Z
Maybe they'll have more luck than did Cameron at trying that for the UK.

Either way it looks like Italy are in for a rough time.
Italy's election pledges are a debt time bomb, economists warn

At a record 132 percent of gross domestic product, Italy’s debt is the highest in the euro zone after Greece‘s, leaving the country potentially vulnerable to a repeat of its 2011 crisis, when soaring borrowing costs took it to the brink of bankruptcy.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-debt/italys-election-pledges-are-a-debt-time-bomb-economists-warn-idUKKCN1FZ1IZ?il=0

Yeah yeah yeah, I know; "economists". (Strange how some remainers choose to believe the ones that suit their agendas but not others without delving deeper.)
But (as Labour showed us in 2010 in the infamous "I'm afraid there is no money" farce) you can't keep borrowing indefinitely without repaying.


Relevance to Brexit?
More instability in EU-land leading -> more fragmentation -> less agreement about obstinacy from EU Commission re: Brexit.
:T

Herzlos

Rough_Justice wrote: »

The dissenting remain sqauwkers get more anxious with each passing day as March approaches and as they hear more evidence of Brexit really meaning that we leave the EU.

Anxious? Not at all; I'll dodge the worst of it.
Perplexed? Definitely. Brexit makes less sense with pretty much every announcement.

Moby

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/business-wants-customs-union-balls-survey-shows-7wztsb0c0

Most British firms want the UK to remain in the customs union after Brexit, a survey has indicated.

The Harvard Kennedy School study was carried out by researchers including former shadow chancellor Ed Balls and involved interviews with more than 80 small and medium-sized firms and trade associations.

Mr Balls said: the most detailed, in-depth study of the views of small and medium-sized businesses which has been done academically since the referendum;

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

Boris Johnson wrote a pro EU article and an anti EU article and chose to promote the one he thought would advance Boris Johnson's career the farthest.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-secret-pro-eu-article-revealed-expressing-doubts-brexit-a7363781.html

If I have a big decision to make which involves a binary choice and need to weigh up the arguments, I take a large sheet of paper and write down the pros and cons in two different columns. When I've done that, I make my decision. It seems to me that that's no different from what Boris did but typically, you seek to pillory him.

His speech yesterday was actually quite a good overview which is what he does well. What he doesn't do well is the nuts and bolts.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

If I have a big decision to make which involves a binary choice and need to weigh up the arguments, I take a large sheet of paper and write down the pros and cons in two different columns. When I've done that, I make my decision. It seems to me that that's no different from what Boris did but typically, you seek to pillory him.

His speech yesterday was actually quite a good overview which is what he does well. What he doesn't do well is the nuts and bolts.

So what exactly does he do well?

Rough_Justice

Moby wrote: »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/business-wants-customs-union-balls-survey-shows-7wztsb0c0

Ed Balls eh?
Would that be THIS Ed Balls?
'Regulations SPEW out of Brussels!' Humphrys tears into Ed Balls for bid water down Brexit

a report conducted by former Labour MP Ed Balls, who is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Business

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/919273/Brexit-news-UK-latest-EU-European-Union-BBC-John-Humphrys

:rotfl:

Rough_Justice

Moby wrote: »

So what exactly does he do well?

Well he's persuaded a previously remain member of the electorate already, or did you miss that earlier post?

tracey3596 wrote: »

"I've had enough of being a Remoaner!' New Brexiteer caller's CONFESSION to Nigel Farage

Boris's speech seems to have worked on one person at least.


Video included in the link below.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/919231/Brexit-news-update-Nigel-Farage-Boris-Johnson-speech-caller-confession-LBC

Rough_Justice

Brexit: EU 'removes transition punishment clause'

The BBC's Brussels reporter Adam Fleming said that, following a meeting earlier on Wednesday, officials from the other 27 nations promised a new, less tough-sounding paragraph will feature in an expanded draft of the withdrawal agreement - expected to be published by the end of the month.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43062112

cogito wrote: »

He's a Franco German glove puppet carrying out his bosses' orders. It's his masters, not him, who are being intransigent.

It will start to change when realisation dawns amongst the other 25 that no deal is more than just a possibility.

Yes, and the other 25 have already started to judging by the above!

Herzlos

Rough_Justice wrote: »

Brexit: EU 'removes transition punishment clause'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43062112

Nothing has changed; they are just changing the words to sound less scary:

But officials have now promised new wording that makes reference to the EU's standard infringement procedures.

We'll still be sanctioned for breaking the rules.