Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

In facts that well known anti Brexit site also talk of time running out.

https://infacts.org/may-will-miss-transition-deadline-may-not-care/

Failing to clinch a stopgap deal at next month!!!8217;s European summit will be bad for jobs. But our paralysed prime minister might not mind. She would get a perfect alibi to keep kicking the can down the road and refusing to spell out what sort of Brexit she wants.

It!!!8217;s now hard to see Theresa May hitting her deadline of March 23 to nail down a transitional deal to make sure the economy doesn!!!8217;t fall off a cliff next year. She has no fewer than three knotty issues to solve: how to stop the return of the Irish border controls now she has rejected staying in any form of customs union with the EU; whether EU citizens who arrive during this stopgap period will get the same rights as those who come before; and how to satisfy the clamours of Tory Brextremists that we mustn!!!8217;t follow new EU rules during the transition on the grounds that it would turn us into a !!!8220;vassal state!!!8221;.

Business is getting antsy

Businesses have been holding back from triggering contingency plans to shift activities across the Channel and Irish Sea because the government has told them it will put in place such a stopgap. But if May misses her deadline, many firms will press the button.

After all, the next scheduled summit where a deal on transition could be agreed isn!!!8217;t until June 28/29 !!!8211; only nine months before the prime minister wants to rip us out of the EU. What!!!8217;s more, that!!!8217;s after local government elections in May, when the Tories are expected to be thrashed. Who knows if the prime minister will still be in office after that and whether her replacement would pursue a radically different policy

gfplux

Are the Brexiters Here worried about the delay. One recently said that the British Government is doing a good job at the negotiations.
Do you all think the same.
Is Uncertainty a good thing?

gfplux

Politico had this to say about yesterday!!!8217;s meeting in no 10. Looks like a lot of can kicking to me.


Day 1 redux: The Times!!!8217; Oliver Wright has a nice line on yesterday!!!8217;s war Cabinet session, which covered the thorny issues of immigration and Northern Ireland. He reports Theresa May!!!8217;s top Brexit adviser Olly Robbins unveiled two possible post-Brexit immigration systems !!!8212; and that the Cabinet!!!8217;s preferred option is to offer no preferential treatment to EU migrants over people from other countries. !!!8220;There is an understanding that if you offer EU nationals preferential treatment, then you!!!8217;re going to get other countries demanding exactly the same access before they!!!8217;ll even start talking about trade deals,!!!8221; a Cabinet source explains. On Northern Ireland, the FT!!!8217;s George Parker reports there was !!!8220;no breakthrough!!!8221; yesterday and that ministers agreed !!!8220;they needed to think about it some more.!!!8221; Which is a little discouraging. The Sun!!!8217;s Tom Newton Dunn reckons Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley was !!!8220;quietly added!!!8221; to the sub-committee last week, sparking fresh paranoia among its Brexiteer members.

phillw

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Sorry, but we have not broken the rules, we have simply decided to leave.

You decided to vote to leave because you wanted to break the rules and were told you couldn't do that while being a member of the EU. Therefore you disregarded the benefits of the EU to achieve your aims. You all still want to break the rules that were already set out and agreed democratically.

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The eu are saying the same rules must apply through the transition period, although apparently that does not apply to them, they say we cannot vote on any of the new rules they decide to bring in through that time.

In the same way the referendum was rigged to exclude britons living in the EU, even though the result affected them.

It's hypocritical to argue for one without the other. Both are seemingly unfair, but that is democracy for you.

kabayiri wrote: »

People will be looking for someone to blame, and it's pretty easy to blame the EU. This worries me more than business response.

We know it's easy to blame the EU. The only reason so many people voted to leave is because the media and politicians have been putting undeserved blame on the EU. As soon as people fell for Boris' banana speech in the run up to the referendum, it was clear that people were clamouring for other people to be blamed and not take responsibility themselves. It's how the nazi's rose to power in the 20's & Rees Mogg appears to be poised to take his turn.

Herzlos wrote: »

So May is refusing to garauntee the nhs will be safe from us trade talks, coupled with the fact we know the us see the nhs as a large target in a trade deal and the Tories have agreed to keep trade deal secret until 4 years after it's concluded.
That's what Brexit is going to get us and I find that more concerning than any economic damage. Isn't that the opposite of what people voted for?

The people who voted because of 350million on the side of a red bus will not get what they voted for.
The people who voted against the establishment because they wanted to do anything to improve their lives will not get what they want.
The people who voted against brown faces might see a reduction, but then there are plenty of 2nd and 3rd generation brown faces and they aren't going anywhere & we still need more immigrants anyway.

Theophile

vivatifosi wrote: »

But equally Ballard, it is quite a toxic position for the EU to talk of punishing us so that all the other countries are afraid to leave. It is quite dictatorial. I voted remain, but threatening countries who have followed a legally available path in order to stop others following is appalling.

When the EU points out there will be barriers to trade when we leave SM and/or CU, that's not talking of punishing us, but merely a statement of fact.

Moby

https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-northern-ireland-and-north-east-england-gdp-revealed-in-new-brexit-impact-papers-leak-11240254

Turkeys voting for Xmas!

Moby

BobQ wrote: »

To discourage the others.......unfortunately we will probably have to suffer in order that the others learn the lesson.

While I am less pessimistic about Brexit than I once was, I still cannot understand why so many people think that a lower standard of living is a price worth paying to address their particular problems

The EU are putting sanctions in place for the possible eventuality that agreements are broken. That is not a vindictive punishment. It's simply consequential action to protect the union.
Of course it suits the agenda of brexiteers to be victims. The people who voted brexit were looking for something/someone to blame for their situation....the EU, immigration etc are good scapegoat candidates. The irony is of course these are the areas that will suffer the harshest economic consequences. London will be relatively protected and will still suck in resources.

Moby

westernpromise wrote: »

Your every post is like a blast of stale air from the 1930s.

You owe literally everything to private companies, the wealth they generate and the taxes they pay. Imagine if they hated you and this country like you do. We'd be North Korea in an instant.

Meanwhile you take out and put nothing in and the more you're given for nothing the more you whine for and feel entitled to. Snivelling after other people's money all the time is shameful, greedy and undignified.

Last year I paid for six nurses. Can you say the same? Thought not.

You know nothing about me and I have no idea about you and your claims either. How you seem to see society does speak very loudly about you though and I hope that one day you find the peace you clearly lack in your existence.

gfplux

Brexiters voted Brexit as they blamed the EU for a lot of things.
Brexiters continue to blame the EU despite Britain is nearly out of the door.
I suspect Brexiters will continue to blame the EU for every negative that happens between now and the future.
Brexiters will NEVER acknowledge that leaving the EU has any down side.

Remainers like me can not see ANY economic upside for Britain in leaving the EU. Taking back control does not put food on plates or make Britain better at exporting.

gfplux

While I believe any discussion about the political future of the EU off topic a number of posters have shown great interest in European Elections. They have often commented in this thread showing that the elections in Holland, Austria, France and lately Germany have occupied their thoughts.
With the Italian election due in less than 4 weeks on March 4th they are probably gathering information as I type.

The London School of Economics have regular lectures that are recorded which are then available for anyone to listen to.
Recently this was recorded on 31st January.

What do the Italian Elections mean for Europe.
It is just over 80 minutes and covers the various political runners, statistics, background, the economic issues being faced and the various outcomes.
I found it very informative, unbiased and would consider anyone commentating here on the likely outcome invaluable. While still being off topic.
The link is here.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=3980&from_serp=1