Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

tracey3596 wrote: »

Add to that "in some polls of a few folk and mostly conducted online, then "weighed" etc. (read "fiddled-with to get the result we want to show you").
In effect, more straws being clutched I see.

As I have posted before, maybe you could consider why you think that more people would like to remain in the EU when - after deciding to leave - to date the UK is seeing amongst other benefits:

Increased numbers employed/less unemployed and wages showing the green shoots of rising healthily.
Record investment in the country, hundreds of thousands of new jobs.
Continued, steady growth and exports in particular booming.
The far-right extremism which is finding its' way into parliaments across the EU (and is extending) has been avoided.
Above all, officially (ONS) we are happier than ever.

What similar facts have remainers got to further their cause?
Well, the £ is a little lower - it'll cost more to go on holiday and a few things are a little more expensive.
Anything else?
Imaginings of what might happen won't work because so many have been proven completely wrong so far so go on, what else?

And yet some folk persist in their dream that more people would vote to stay in the EU now?
You're having a laugh.

Hello Tracey,
I hope this post will conform to your high standards of spelling and grammar.

Here we are 18 months after the referendum that was chosen by Theresa May as meaning the will of the people meant she would take Britain out of the EU. Her strong and stable belief that Brexit meant Brexit showed that she was a leader who meant business.

On the other side the EU and many citizens of the EU27 were dismayed and puzzled at the decision. Let’s be clear not all.

Now 18 months on, has much has changed. You be the judge.

The pound is lower in value against world currency’s
British exports are higher in £ value but not necessarily in volume
Imports cost more which have made food prices higher and less income available for discretionary spending.
Imported drugs and medical equipment take up a higher % of the NHS budget
EU27 workers in the UK are less frightened about being deported
British citizens living in the EU27 are less frightened about being deported.
The USA is not Britains number one friend.
The EU have finally realised that a “no deal” is likely and are preparing.
Britain is ready and prepared for a “no deal”
Too much time is being spent by both sides on this and it needs to be done soon.
A transition deal only prolongs the agony and perhaps there should not be one.


Have I missed anything.
I am sure I have, help please in completing the list.

kabayiri

Lord Adonis was answering listener questions on LBC earlier. He was talking about a 2nd referendum, so for different reasons he agrees with Nigel Farage that one is required.

However...his claim was that we could cancel the whole process and return to a position within the EU that we held before.

This belief translated directly on to what he thought the wording on the ballot paper should be.

Now, I didn't particularly like the wording and process for the 1st referendum. And, for purely political reasons I don't trust these people to manage a 2nd referendum.

I can't see why we would be able to resume within the EU without an expectation to change from the other EU members.

But...you may know/think differently. Why wouldn't other EU members seize a capitulation by the UK as vindication of much tighter EU integration policy?

buglawton

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No it's not.

The UK is BMW's 4th largest market but only accounts for 10% of global sales.

So a significant drop in BMW sales in the UK, say 10% - 20%, would equate to just 1% to 2% of BMW's current global production.

However a 20% fall in BMW's UK sales would be pretty devastating for the British owned franchise sales and service network, along with all the staff who work for them.

If f global production yes, however the earlier question was, how much would Germany be affected? Might be a different number to tease out, basically how much content/value is German sourced?

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

If f global production yes, however the earlier question was, how much would Germany be affected? Might be a different number to tease out, basically how much content/value is German sourced?

If the UK bought zero German built cars, zero German car manufacturers would go under.

We make up 10% of BMW sales worldwide (though not all built in Germany). If we buy no bmws then German factories will see a decline of far less than 10%. Do we need an exact number? Presumably the point you're trying to establish if German car manufacturers will blink first and force the German government to make the eu give us a super deal. The answer is no; it's not coming to our rescue.

There are plenty of deals that'll screw us that still have free trade for cars/parts. Admittedly if we become poorer we'll probably buy less status cars.

I wonder how much BMW would save in design/manufacturer if they dropped RHD production.

kabayiri

Look...the point of German auto lobbyists and Union officials is to try and avoid even 1% of job losses.

This is why they campaign for positive policy with the German politicians, in the hope they steer things in their favour.

This talk of numbers is a bit like arguing over a spreadsheet.

The EU is ready enough to do deals with China, a regime which doesn't respect IP rights, so it should be ready to do deals with a slightly errant but closer neighbour.

tracey3596

The United Kingdom is Germany's fifth-largest trading partner. Trade volume in2016 amounted to 122 billion Euros. The UK is actually the third-largest market for German exports, with 86 billion Euros in exports in 2016. About 750,000 jobs in Germany depend on trade with the United Kingdom.

From https://www.ihk-nuernberg.de/de/media/PDF/en/dihk-impact-of-brexit.pdf Have a read. Probably already out-of-date mind you but it is at least from a German perspective.

This was in DW only a few weeks ago:

Most analyses on the impact a hard Brexit would have in Germany start with cars — and with good reason. There is no single item which Germany exports more than cars, which accounted for 11 percent of the country's total exports in 2016 — at a value of €126 billion ($150 billion)
Of all those global car exports, a whopping 15 percent, or €19 billion worth, go to the UK. That makes Germany's export trade in automobiles with the UK arguably the most important single element of its entire trade ecosystem.

http://www.dw.com/en/how-a-hard-brexit-could-hurt-germany-reckoning-with-the-worst-that-may-befall/a-41895449

Which might well explain this from November:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/20/stop-brexit-happening-german-business-leaders-tell-eu/

I'm far from being so naive as to imagine that the EU will roll over to UK requests just because of the possible impact upon the German auto industry, or even German industry as a whole.
Neither though am I so naive as to imagine that Germany will see only negligible impact as some on here seem to suggest, especially when Germans themselves admit that this outcome is unlikely.

What it looks like many remainers do not appreciate however is that it's not only Germans, is it?
What about the Dutch, the French or (yes) the Irish or Danes for example? Even Spanish fresh produce for another example could be a major "loser" if the EU continue upon a course of protectionism and taken as a whole it does - if interpreted logically - provide a basis for hope that the EU may agree to a mutually satisfactory conclusion whereby neither side suffers any ill-effects because of Brexit.

buglawton

Spot on Tracey and gets us past some of the earlier FUD.
Another aspect is just how fast the UK adapts. A recent statistic is the 4% yoy increase in UK manufacturing caused mainly by the low £. We know that manufacturing takes a relatively small part of the UK economy right now, but the prospects for a rapid ramp-up are there, should the EU wish to play trade 'hardball'.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Marketing alone won't sell cars in volume. The whole infrastucture needs to be in place. Sales, Servicing, Parts etc etc. That's years of work. Let alone building cars that people actually will wish to buy. As different markets. BMW is highly dependent on the UK.

Which they all have. All the groundwork has been done.
I understand that BMW are even now producing cars in Chine. The joint venture employs about 3900 people.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Brilliance

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20170519/ANE/170519763/bmw-to-boost-china-production-capacity
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“FRANKFURT -- BMW said its annual production capacity in China will reach 450,000 vehicles, 144,274 vehicles more than last year's output, once an investment plan to upgrade its local factories is completed.

BMW produces cars at two plants in Shenyang, China, and has invested 1 billion euros to adapt production lines for newer models over the past three years, the automaker said in a statement Friday.

At its factory in Shenyang's Dadong district, BMW now produces a long-wheelbase version of the 5-series sedan and is preparing to build the X3 SUV at a factory, which is run by its joint venture partner BMW Brilliance Automotive.”
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gfplux

This is Mercedes in Chine.
http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Production-milestone-in-China-Beijing-plant-manufactures-one-millionth-car-with-the-three-pointed-star.xhtml?oid=14752002
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“Beijing – The one millionth vehicle rolled off the production line today at Beijing Benz Automotive Co., Ltd (BBAC). This joint venture between Daimler and BAIC has been in place for over ten years and undertook tremendous development over the last decade. “ This occasion is a milestone for our successful partnership with BAIC and another solid proof of our ‘Made in China, for China’ commitment,” said Hubertus Troska, Member of the Board of Management of Daimler AG, responsible for Daimler Greater China. “ BBAC is key to the long-term and sustainable development of the Mercedes-Benz brand in China, and we will continue developing it into one of the most pioneering manufacturing sites in Daimler’s global production network.”
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gfplux

This is Audi in Chine

https://www.audi.com/corporate/en/company/production-sites/audi-production-worldwide/foshan.html
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“As part of its joint venture with Volkswagen and First Automotive Works (FAW), Audi began running a second production facility in China in late 2013. The new Foshan production site is located in Guangdong Province in southern China. At present the Audi A3 Sportback and the A3 Sedan are being produced for the local market.”
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