Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

This is Wolkswagon

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_China
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“Volkswagen Group China enjoys sales of about 2.81 million cars (2012) in the Chinese market[2] and is the second-largest foreign carmaker after General Motors. The Chinese market is one of the main markets of the Group. Operations of Volkswagen in China include the production, sales and services of whole cars, parts and components, engines and transmission systems, and the sales and service of imported cars. The company's locally manufactured and imported vehicles are sold under various brand names such as Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, Škoda, Bentley, and Lamborghini in China.”
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gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Lord Adonis was answering listener questions on LBC earlier. He was talking about a 2nd referendum, so for different reasons he agrees with Nigel Farage that one is required.

However...his claim was that we could cancel the whole process and return to a position within the EU that we held before.

This belief translated directly on to what he thought the wording on the ballot paper should be.

Now, I didn't particularly like the wording and process for the 1st referendum. And, for purely political reasons I don't trust these people to manage a 2nd referendum.

I can't see why we would be able to resume within the EU without an expectation to change from the other EU members.

But...you may know/think differently. Why wouldn't other EU members seize a capitulation by the UK as vindication of much tighter EU integration policy?

I suspect the greater problem for the EU would be the issue of will she won’t she.
The sequence of (recent) events are as follows.

Britain is a reluctant member with much anti EU publicity a daily event.
June 2016 Britain votes to leave
Sometime in 2018 Britain votes to stay.
Sometime in 2019, 2020, 2121, 2022, 2023 Britain votes again!

Can the EU ever trust Britain to be a committed member of the EU.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Look...the point of German auto lobbyists and Union officials is to try and avoid even 1% of job losses.

This is why they campaign for positive policy with the German politicians, in the hope they steer things in their favour.

This talk of numbers is a bit like arguing over a spreadsheet.

The EU is ready enough to do deals with China, a regime which doesn't respect IP rights, so it should be ready to do deals with a slightly errant but closer neighbour.

Some posters have suggested that the German auto unions and lobbyists have a great influence with the old German Government.
Is that a similar influence the British auto unions and lobbyists have with the British Government.
If so the chances of a no deal should be zero and frankly it’s surprising the British Government even mentioned a no deal.

Let’s be honest. Lobbyists can and do influence government decisions. However they don’t control the government German or British.
With one of the most important trade deal in Britains recent history being worked on soon everyone should be hoping that someone somewhere is lobbying on behalf of the industry they work in.

I am not suggesting for one minute that German auto workers would not be hurt by losing the British market. Every company wants what is best for them. Certainty and continuity is what manufacturing needs. The last 18 months have been full of Uncertainty and Company’s have already made some changes to manage any disruption to their profits. That is what management is paid for.
As each day goes by full of Uncertainty more decisions are being made that is entirely about profit and not about the security of British or German jobs.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Which they all have. All the groundwork has been done.

With the plants being China. Does little for the European manufacturing base though. For people employed in Bavaria. Car manufacturers like other global companies are moving East to cut costs. Asia won't need Europe in the decades to come.

Cakeguts

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/27/newsid_4187000/4187714.stm Third time unlucky as it has turned out.

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With the plants being China. Does little for the European manufacturing base though. For people employed in Bavaria. Car manufacturers like other global companies are moving East to cut costs. Asia won't need Europe in the decades to come.

Completely agree.
However production in Chine is about producing INSIDE the customs borders and being CLOSE to your trading partner.

Britain is just in the process of rejecting both those advantages.
It’s sad but it’s the will of the people.

buglawton

The UK most certainly hasn't rejected any such advantages. It is the EU, sometimes via it's opinionated lead figures, who are rattling the trade cage and muttering about having cakes and eating them.

gfplux

Cakeguts wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/27/newsid_4187000/4187714.stm Third time unlucky as it has turned out.

Thank you for that.
Charles de Gaulle was thought to be a miserable !!!!!! at the time.
Now +40 years later he perhaps understood Britain and the British character better than we thought.

gfplux

buglawton wrote: »

The UK most certainly hasn't rejected any such advantages. It is the EU, sometimes via it's opinionated lead figures, who are rattling the trade cage and muttering about having cakes and eating them.

What!!!!
You do know that Britain is leaving the EU.
The EU were given notice last year, article50, if you had forgotten.

The EU and Britain have opinionated leaders, that’s what we vote for, people with opinions.

There is no such thing as a trade cage. There is a trade deal that both Britain and the EU would like to have after Britain has left the EU.

The cake and eat it is just like any Club. You can’t resign and still play tennis at the club.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you for that.
Charles de Gaulle was thought to be a miserable !!!!!! at the time.
Now +40 years later he perhaps understood Britain and the British character better than we thought.

Just as pertinent is the fact that Ted Heath and the rest didn’t realise how jealously France and their ‘muckers’ the Germans would guard their control and influence over the project, to the frustration of other leading European nations IMO. It’s a Franco/German concept I suppose and why shouldn’t they boss the thing, but you don’t treat a proud people like the Brits and a huge contributor to the budget like that and not expect a reaction eventually.
If you view Brexit as failure of politics as I do, then there’s blame to be had on both sides of the channel IMO.