Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

They are nowhere near the same thing and if you believe that I don’t see how anybody can take your judgements seriously.

Just to make it clear to you a poll is a small proportion of electorate is asked a question and that result is used as an indication of how the whole electorate will vote. The referendum was a count of the actual votes of electorate.

A poll in general is asking a a person informally, recording the info and extrapolating. There's no real control over respondents except some filtering.
A referendum is asking a person formally, more control over respondents (no double voting, under 18''s etc) with no need to extrapolate. Respondents are still largely self selecting because voting isn't a legal obligation.

You seem to be talking abut exit polls specifically, but they are asking the same question to the same people but in a less formal way. Assuming people answer both consistently they'll both provide the same result albeit with a different error margin; balot will have a tighter margin because of the way it's done. Note that unless we ask everyone in the country then the error margin is above zero.

I suspect you misunderstood me and think I'm claiming the referendum balot result wasn't 52/48; I'm not but it's an easy mistake to make.
I'm saying that from such a tight margin (easily within the error) we can't infer anything about the will of the people, or in fact anything beyond leave having a statically insignificant majority.

You wouldn't paint a room or choose a pub with a 52/48 result; so who'd be stupid enough to make a significant economic change based on it?

That's before we get to the fact that if you're relying on the will of the people; all the indications across the dozens of polls is that the will has changed within the error margin the other way.

Fella

Companies have gone bust since forever. MPs have been clueless that it was about to happen since forever. Nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit.

Arklight

We're on course for the worst of all Brexits. A soft Brexit that will still be too much for Remainers to swallow, and nothing like enough for Leavers to feel like they got the result they voted for.


The argument going on on this forum will keep pitting the country against itself for a generation or more unless there is a radical change of tack.

System

gfplux wrote: »

I have repeated often that Brexit is taking ALL of the Governments attention and they are not “getting on with the day job”

Perhaps I'd have a different view if I'd just spent 18 hours on a trolley in A&E drinking water from a vase but I'm not sure the government being AWOL for two years has been particularly bad for the country.

Brexit seems to be keeping them nicely occupied.

System

Arklight wrote: »

We're on course for the worst of all Brexits. A soft Brexit that will still be too much for Remainers to swallow, and nothing like enough for Leavers to feel like they got the result they voted for.

Most people I'm sure now want to just get on with it. Remainers will accept a soft brexit as the least worst option and, if this forum is anything to go by, leavers will declare it's what they wanted all along.

If leavers aren't happy they're hardly going to vote UKIP (is there anyone who would now admit to ever voting UKIP?) - the best they can do is replace May with a Rees-Mogg type who wouldn't change anything but would blame everything on her.

If remainers aren't happy with a soft brexit there's not a lot they can do about it.

Arklight

ilovehouses wrote: »

Most people I'm sure now want to just get on with it. Remainers will accept a soft brexit as the least worst option and, if this forum is anything to go by, leavers will declare it's what they wanted all along.

If leavers aren't happy they're hardly going to vote UKIP (is there anyone who would now admit to ever voting UKIP?) - the best they can do is replace May with a Rees-Mogg type who wouldn't change anything but would blame everything on her.

If remainers aren't happy with a soft brexit there's not a lot they can do about it.

This forum is only soft Brexit because the hardcore leavers and ardent remainers have all been banned.


They still exist within the world and the Colonel Shoutface McAngries from Snoddington on Lyme aren't going to keep quiet if they still believe that immigrants (i.e. people they never meet) are "flooding" into London (i.e. a place they never go to).

System

Arklight wrote: »

This forum is only soft Brexit because the hardcore leavers and ardent remainers have all been banned.

They still exist within the world and the Colonel Shoutface McAngries from Snoddington on Lyme aren't going to keep quiet if they still believe that immigrants (i.e. people they never meet) are "flooding" into London (i.e. a place they never go to).

..but Puce McPuceface can't do anything about it. He'll be invited to pull his neck in because the majority would rather get on with a soft brexit than spend a minute longer pandering to people who won't be happy until the UK has been towed 500 miles West.

He won't vote UKIP because, apart from being a bit tragic, he's also frothing about the Labour party getting in, setting up a Politburo and installing Gerry Adams as deputy PM.

He's going to vote Tory and lump it and go back to shouting at the telly.

Arklight

ilovehouses wrote: »

..but Puce McPuceface can't do anything about it. He'll be invited to pull his neck in because the majority would rather get on with a soft brexit than spend a minute longer pandering to people who won't be happy until the UK has been towed 500 miles West.

He won't vote UKIP because, apart from being a bit tragic, he's also frothing about the Labour party getting in, setting up a Politburo and installing Gerry Adams as deputy PM.

He's going to vote Tory and lump it and go back to shouting at the telly.

Alls well that ends well.

I suppose at least he has the Daily Mail to hurl at the TV every time he sees Diane Abbott on Question Time.

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

This forum is only soft Brexit because the hardcore leavers and ardent remainers have all been banned.

Why are you and I still here then?

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Manufacturing is 10% of GDP and agriculture 1%. The amount of time spent discussing these small parts of the economy is a testament to the skilled lobbying power of manufacturers and farmers.

Whoever the car manufacturers use to co-ordinate their lobbying should get a medal - it's been a UK obsession for decades.

Motor related manufacturing accounts for a lot of the 10%. An increasing % of the parts used in UK manufactured car comes from UK suppliers. With no demand the skills would die out. Which is what has happened in many other industries. Where the UK is now dependent upon imports.