Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Eric_the_half_a_bee

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'd prefer to read an impact analysis carried out by someone who has impact analysis within their skill-set rather than by someone who most clearly doesn't.

In early 2016, the Treasury found the best experts it could to undertake an impact analysis of a vote to Leave. You may remember, the predictions were utterly useless. What makes you think they would be any better now?

gfplux

Alternative transport methods from ROI to Europe have been discussed here a few time.
http://www.irishnews.com/lifestyle/holidays/2018/01/16/news/ferry-link-between-ireland-and-spain-starts-at-end-of-april-1233662/?param=ds441rif44T

It’s a very small start. It will be interesting to see how it develops. None of us want to see damage to ROI and there would be a benefit to Britain with fewer trucks on the roads.
—-
“Ireland and Spain are to be linked by a direct ferry service for the first time.

The sailings will enable firms to bypass the UK when transporting freight between the two countries, which could be particularly useful after Brexit.

There are fears that the UK's ports could suffer from severe customs queues after it withdraws from the European Union in March next year.

Brittany Ferries will operate two return sailings a week from Cork to Santander in northern Spain from the end of April.

Port of Cork commercial manager captain Michael McCarthy said: "The option for freight carriers to bypass the UK land bridge will be seen as very attractive, as Brexit uncertainty continues.

"We have no doubt that both exporters and importers will make this a viable service."
—-

This is an old story from October but gives a bit of background to those posters who have not looked at this issue.

http://www.dailypost.co.uk/business/business-news/giant-boat-fuels-fears-holyhead-13812310

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Alternative transport methods from ROI to Europe have been discussed here a few time.
http://www.irishnews.com/lifestyle/holidays/2018/01/16/news/ferry-link-between-ireland-and-spain-starts-at-end-of-april-1233662/?param=ds441rif44T

It’s a very small start. It will be interesting to see how it develops
—-
“Ireland and Spain are to be linked by a direct ferry service for the first time.

The sailings will enable firms to bypass the UK when transporting freight between the two countries, which could be particularly useful after Brexit.

There are fears that the UK's ports could suffer from severe customs queues after it withdraws from the European Union in March next year.

Brittany Ferries will operate two return sailings a week from Cork to Santander in northern Spain from the end of April.

Port of Cork commercial manager captain Michael McCarthy said: "The option for freight carriers to bypass the UK land bridge will be seen as very attractive, as Brexit uncertainty continues.

"We have no doubt that both exporters and importers will make this a viable service."
—-

A very small start. You do realise that trade between Spain and Ireland is a piffling $4.5bn a year. How much difference do you think two sailings a week will make?

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

You're so afraid of the rug being pulled from under your glorious brexit you'd rather we all just sleepwalk into it.

There's no fear here although I know from your past comments that you're prone to such wild claims.
The so-called "grown-ups" you ramble on about want no more than to justify their existence by pulling figures out of fresh air and interpreting them in the manner that best suits their bias, since you can't analyse data or facts which haven't yet happened.
These "impact assessments" can be no more than guesswork which TBH sounds pretty much like the majority of your posts.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'd prefer to read an impact analysis carried out by someone who has impact analysis within their skill-set rather than by someone who most clearly doesn't.

Just in case you still disagree with my post above, try these impact assessments from Germany.
This from last June:
https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/deloitte-study-finds-german-car-industry-severely-hit-no-deal-brexit/
This from last week:
http://www.cityam.com/278604/german-car-suppliers-could-face-thousands-job-losses-if

From Spain/the EU:
https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/01/12/inenglish/1515755694_911389.html


Then this from Global Counsel:
https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/analysis/special-report/brexit-impact-uk-and-eu
This from Fitch:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/02/uk-growth-outstrip-eurozones-2019-claims-fitch/
This from Rees-Mogg:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/14/jacob-rees-mogg-hard-brexit-would-boost-uk-by-135bn-over-5-years



Would you like more?
Or are these not suiting your bias?
:whistle:

tracey3596

German MEP reveals Juncker FINALLY understands Brexit’s danger to EU after crunch meeting

Video included.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/905162/Brexit-news-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Hans-Olaf-Henkel-EU-UK-Germany
In the video is included this regarding Juncker:

“I think he is starting to realise that Brexit has severe repercussions for Europe.”

Despite the assertions of some I personally have absolutely no fear of another vote, and not just because of the reasons I have already posted.

May's spokesman - Britain will be leaving the EU

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/mays-spokesman-britain-will-be-leaving-the-eu-idUKKBN1F51HC

Malthusian

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

In early 2016, the Treasury found the best experts it could to undertake an impact analysis of a vote to Leave. You may remember, the predictions were utterly useless. What makes you think they would be any better now?

Easy, those 2016 predictions now have an annoying little sister called Reality which constantly disagrees with them, and wins every single argument.

Shiny new predictions would be an only child - at least for the moment.

And then when they get proven wrong, we deploy the Global Warming Gambit and produce 50-year Brexit impact projections which can't be disproven until most of the people responsible have drawn their gold-plated pensions.

There are thousands of "qualified adults" producing impact assessments and backing those assessments with billions of pounds. It's called the stockmarket. But the stockmarket has produced the Wrong Result so Remainers, after a brief love affair with the Efficient Market Hypothesis that lasted until 27 June 2016, now pretend it doesn't exist.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Motor related manufacturing is 4% of GDP and farming 1%.

They are two tails wagging the dog.

Thr UK has a high dependency on retail. That's a far bigger issue. Should consumers reduce their spending.

Rough_Justice

An interesting report from Poland Radio highlighting the difference between the EU and (in this case) Poles:

Eurocrats are dreaming of a single European identity and do not understand Poles, he continued.

The more that Poles come under pressure, the more they remember their loss of their sovereignty in the past and the more stubborn they become, he said.

He added that Germany is the “last country” that should teach others about human rights.

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/344394,Poland-targeted-by-EU-because-it-is-important-country-political-scientist
It's not just Poles the EU doesn't understand though.

I wonder too if these countries realise what they're getting themselves into, or maybe they just think that from past new entrants the EU will bung them each a huge wedge?

Montenegro and Serbia should be ready for EU membership in 2025 and Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Macedonia should be well-advanced on their path to EU accession by then, according to a draft of the European Commission's Western Balkans strategy seen by RFE/RL.

https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-western-balkans-strategy-bosnia-kosovo-macedonia-montenegro-serbia/28976883.html
If they can't contribute, can the EU afford them?

Rough_Justice

Ooh, this could well and truly put the cat amongst the pigeons!
The Swiss government have given the go-ahead for a canvassing of public support into curbing immigration from the EU.

Should the initiative win the required 100,000 signatures by July 2019, it would go to a vote under the Swiss system of direct democracy. That could pave the way to scrapping the free movement of EU citizens now guaranteed under bilateral accords.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-eu/swiss-campaign-to-curb-immigration-from-eu-gets-go-ahead-idUSKBN1F51UN?il=0