Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

Surprised to hear yesterday that the U.K. has more saving accounts than credit accounts.

Rough_Justice

Nobody has mentioned the struggling EU/Mexico talks which look doomed to failure because of an argument about cheese! Yes, cheese again.
Yet another example of why it is easier to negotiate as a single entity rather than as a mish-mash in a supposed union where the reality is that each member has different wants, needs and expectations.

Row over manchego could scupper EU trade deal with Mexico as Spain calls out 'cheese pirates'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/15/row-manchego-could-scupper-eu-trade-deal-mexico-spain-calls/

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Because you still don't seem to undestand what I'm saying (on purpose?)

The referendum result was a pretty accurate 51.9/48.1, give or take a few votes, that's not in question.

The meaning of that result can only be "it's inconclusive". You can't get "the will of the people" from a 52/48.

I'm not challenging the result, I'm challenging the outcome. And if it was 52/48 the other way I'd be making the same claim - the inferences are meaningless - it's too close to call.

Only an idiot would change the economic environment of a country with a result that close.

It’s the most accurate indicator we have much better than a few polls.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yes an impact assessment from the British government.

You know, so we don't have to rely on David Davis' tarot cards and imagination to assess the impact of negotiated items on the future.

Do you really just not get it?

You can not with any degree of accuracy assess the future.
It is not possible.
If it was possible you (and many others) would have gambled your house on the gee gees or similar and by now be so filthy stinking rich that you certainly would not be so concerned as to post as you do in forums like this one.

ilovehouses wrote: »

No, no fear at all. Hit a nerve?

It's very obvious from your posts just who's nerves are a-twitching.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

It’s the most accurate indicator we have much better than a few polls.

It was on the day in question. It's now over 18 months out of date. Does it still represent the will of the people? It was inconclusive then but it's inconclusive and obsolete now.

Why are you so scared of establishing the will of the people?

Rough_Justice

Herzlos wrote: »

It was on the day in question. It's now over 18 months out of date. Does it still represent the will of the people? It was inconclusive then but it's inconclusive and obsolete now.

Why are you so scared of establishing the will of the people?

So you want a referendum what, every day?
:huh:
By the same token, according to your somewhat dubious interpretation our government could change daily. Or hourly, even. How about at ten-minute intervals? A ridiculous interpretation by you and further evidence of the desperation of those like you who refuse to accept a democratic decision.

BTW, over one and a quarter million people more voting in favour of for leaving isn't inconclusive. Try telling them that if they turn up on your doorstep.

gfplux

This article from the Lancet is four months old.
It is also behind a paywall but the summary can be read.
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31926-8/fulltext

The report is authored by experts so can be dismissed.
It does look at various forms of Brexit.
—-
“Summary
The process of leaving the European Union (EU) will have profound consequences for health and the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK. In this paper, we use the WHO health system building blocks framework to assess the likely effects of three scenarios we term soft Brexit, hard Brexit, and failed Brexit. We conclude that each scenario poses substantial threats. The workforce of the NHS is heavily reliant on EU staff. Financing of health care for UK citizens in the EU and vice versa is threatened, as is access to some capital funds, while Brexit threatens overall economic performance. Access to pharmaceuticals, technology, blood, and organs for transplant is jeopardised. Information used for international comparisons is threatened, as is service delivery, especially in Northern Ireland. Governance concerns relate to public health, competition and trade law, and research. However, we identified a few potential opportunities for improvement in areas such as competition law and flexibility of training, should the UK Government take them. Overall, a soft version of Brexit would minimise health threats whereas failed Brexit would be the riskiest outcome. Effective parliamentary scrutiny of policy and legal changes will be essential, but the scale of the task risks overwhelming parliament and the civil service.”
—-

Rough_Justice

gfplux wrote: »

This article from the Lancet is four months old.
It is also behind a paywall but the summary can be read.

There's nothing new in groups of like-minded professionals suggesting that disaster of one form or another is imminent for our health service. The only difference is that now Brexit is de rigeur.

NHS funding is reliant upon a proportion of GDP and despite warnings that the UK's GDP would fall as a result purely of voting to leave the EU the economy continues to grow.
As such, NHS funding is already more secure than Team Leave and other such doom-mongers told us it would be by now.
There may well be difficulties ahead for our health service but this has been true since its' inception. It has for example been known for decades that we should really be training more home-grown doctors and nurses.
Whether this will change as a result of Brexit remains to be seen but signs so far look promising, with increased training of both doctors and nurses.

Herzlos

Rough_Justice wrote: »

So you want a referendum what, every day?

Nah, once every few years would suffice. At least until we get an answer. To paraphrase "A democracy must be allowed to change it's mind"

A ridiculous interpretation by you and further evidence of the desperation of those like you who refuse to accept a democratic decision.

It was democratic but it wasn't a decision. I doubt you'll ever agree with me on that because this instance of democracy suits your view.
I fully accept more people on June 23rd checked "Leave" than "Remain". But I don't accept that statistically insignificant margin gives anyone a mandate to do anything.

BTW, over one and a quarter million people more voting in favour of for leaving isn't inconclusive. Try telling them that if they turn up on your doorstep.

It'd still only take 1.9% of voters to change their mind to change the decision. Using a big number doesn't make it any more valid.

kabayiri

If....there another referendum, I would want to see a clear statement from the EU as to what we could expect to return to.

Just like Remainers have complained about a lot, call this a "plan".

A plan for where the EU is heading, and how it would see the UK involve itself with this progression.

You see, I think we will be marginalised at every key decision, as the EU moves towards QMV.