Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Tromking

chucknorris wrote: »

I have no idea why you mentioned this:
the UK consumer would rather not buy a new car because it isn’t German
It has nothing to do with what I posted.

Apologies, I was responding to your point and one that ilovehouses made earlier in the thread.

chucknorris

Tromking wrote: »

Apologies, I was responding to your point and one that ilovehouses made earlier in the thread.

No problem, I was rushing out the door when I posted myself.

Tromking

ilovehouses wrote: »

The introduction of tariffs would be complicated and probably confusing for the consumer. I don't know for sure but I think the assumption in the report is that consumers would delay purchases to see how things settle down.

UK car makers will have read the report with interest because if car imports could be so dramatically affected then there's a good chance their sales in the EU will go the same way. In 2016 they exported c700k cars to the EU.

I see the point asking why a UK consumer delays purchase but an EU consumer doesn't but my gut feel would be the EU consumer would be more likely to carry on as normal and, seeing fewer UK made cars, would buy a locally built one.

UK car manufacturers export 40% of production to the EU. I don't know what % of EU car production is exported to the UK but it's obviously going to be far less. The risks from a hard messy brexit are assymetrical.

I see your point, but UK consumer spending despite predictions to the contrary has been quite robust so far.

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

Certainly better than our future prospects imo. Macron is in China building a relationship with the world future superpower, in tandem with Germany. Our role and influence will decline as a consequence of being unable to see beyond petty nationalism. The EU/single currency project was always going to be difficult....that doesn't make it the wrong thing to aspire to. Visionaries like Macron and Merkel will call the tune while we go cap in hand to Trump. They are looking to the future....we are harking back to the past and are now totally divided. The brexiteers won and will rub it in our faces while the rest of the world moves on:-
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-supporters-demand-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-arrest-11205566

I’m not sure about that and having no control over our monetary policy could prove very detrimental. I’m also no convinced that the majority of EU countries want further integration and how popular it would with people in EU. Trump won’t be there for ever and hopefully America will soon have a better president.

Rough_Justice

This in today's Independent from Philip Hammond on the EU pretty much sums up what many have been saying in threads like this:

Asked if a soft Brexit would encourage other countries to leave, the Chancellor said: “I can understand that paranoia. But imagine you are running a successful, thriving club. If one member leaves, you don’t immediately panic that all the other members might leave, but are confident they will want to remain.

“You cannot really run a club if you are constantly threatening members who decide to leave. You should rather redouble your efforts to remain attractive for new and existing members.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-philip-hammond-eu-welt-an-sonntag-europe-chancellor-a8157326.html

Rough_Justice

An interesting POV from Sean Moncrieff in today's "The Irish Times":

Brexit is steadily corroding the EU from the inside

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/sean-moncrieff-brexit-is-steadily-corroding-the-eu-from-the-inside-1.3344066

Rough_Justice

Moby wrote: »

Despite all the predictions from the gloating brexiteers Mutti is still there,

Besides the obvious question of where your imaginary "gloating" exists, has she formed a coalition yet?
Is her position secure?

Moby wrote: »

the surge of populist movements shows no sign of destroying the EU like you hope a

Show me where I say I hope for that?
Then explain if you will how the number of populist seats held across the EU is going to be good for your (or indeed any) vision of the EU?
Do you - against the majority of sentiment within the EU itself - see populist seats decreasing in numbers this coming year?

Moby wrote: »

from what I hear trade links between the EU and China are set to grow.

Show us if you can where you heard that, or is it no more than your imagination?

Moby wrote: »

The big vision is the thing brexiteers don't understand and co-operation with your closest neighbours was always going to benefit this country more than going it alone in a very unpredictable world.

Your so-called "big vision" is actually that of the outward-looking UK as opposed to the protectionism of the EU. It's remainers it seems that can't understand this in what looks like a desperation to cling to the shirt-tails of the EU, rather than taking off their blinkers and looking out at the global opportunities.

There's nothing "unpredictable" about where most growth will come from in the years to come - and it isn't the EU. No, Asia is where by far the most growth is projected over the next decade.
Why shouldn't the UK be free to tap into even a fraction of that, and more besides?

Thrugelmir

Rough_Justice wrote: »

An interesting POV from Sean Moncrieff in today's "The Irish Times":

Balanced observations.

Moby

=Rough Justice;73711046]Besides the obvious question of where your imaginary "gloating" exists, has she formed a coalition yet?
Is her position secure?

The fate of Merkel has been an unhealthy pre-occupation by brexiteers on this thread for the last 18 months. She represents the EU and all it stands for.

Show me where I say I hope for that?
Then explain if you will how the number of populist seats held across the EU is going to be good for your (or indeed any) vision of the EU?
Do you - against the majority of sentiment within the EU itself - see populist seats decreasing in numbers this coming year?

My post wasn't directed at you personally. Populism will rise and fall. The strategic interests of this country are best served by being close to our neighbours regardless of that.

Your so-called "big vision" is actually that of the outward-looking UK as opposed to the protectionism of the EU. It's remainers it seems that can't understand this in what looks like a desperation to cling to the shirt-tails of the EU, rather than taking off their blinkers and looking out at the global opportunities.

What a load of codswallop. The brexiteers of Sunderland, Boston etc voted for brexit because of the global opportunities that would result...really! No it was about IMMIGRATION!

here's nothing "unpredictable" about where most growth will come from in the years to come - and it isn't the EU. No, Asia is where by far the most growth is projected over the next decade.
Why shouldn't the UK be free to tap into even a fraction of that, and more besides?

Nothing stopping us doing that now!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Public opinion against Brexit continues to grow.