Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

kabayiri

There are two sides of this discussion.

1. The impact on EU and UK manufacturers, who...in truth...are closer on production costs than apart. Changes here will centre as much around logistics and continuity planning.

2. The opportunity potential for non-EU suppliers. The car industry is indeed truly global. India, for example, would welcome opportunities to develop more in this area, if not for the opportunity to improve their offering to a growing local market. Whenever I asked my Indian IT friends what they would use their greater income for back home, the 2 answers coming back were cars and air con!

buglawton

chucknorris wrote: »

I have no idea why you mentioned this:

the UK consumer would rather not buy a new car because it isn’t German

It has nothing to do with what I posted.

I voted remain, and my opinion hasn’t changed (but see below), but here we are anyway, my stance doesn’t change the reality of the situation. But to answer your question, if Brexit went badly and British cars became more expensive in Europe and German cars more expensive here, although the Germans might sell fewer cars here, their European sales would presumably pick up. Although if the pound fell, perhaps British cars would remain competitively priced in Euros, despite higher trade tariffs. But my post was aimed at German sales (not British). I am not here to argue the case for remaining (even though I personally favoured that), I have accepted the result of the vote.

I must admit though, I was initially surprised by the surge in the ftse since Brexit, and we are more than £250k better off due to the fall of the pound, so from a personal economic viewpoint it isn’t bad.

If you own mainly FTSE 100 you are in effect owning a lot of foreign assets with foreign currency profits. The FTSE 250 is considered to be a truer indication of the UKs economic health.

chucknorris

buglawton wrote: »

If you own mainly FTSE 100 you are in effect owning a lot of foreign assets with foreign currency profits. The FTSE 250 is considered to be a truer indication of the UKs economic health.

I know, but I have no idea why you are saying this to me? maybe you missed that I said 'initially surprised'.

Although I sold all my ftse all-share and 250 just before the vote, I really didn't expect such a dramatic surge in the ftse 100 (I just thought that it would be resilient), despite switching more into it. I'm obviously not complaining though. Although I do of course realise that the ftse 100 is not an index to remain substantially invested in. But at the moment I am locked in by avoiding paying CGT, the lengthy process of further diversification will start in the next tax year.

Thrugelmir

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

After all, they want to bankrupt all eu countries except Germany in order to force them to remain within the eu (isn't that what the euro is for after all, anyone with half a brain can see that it is ruinous to most of the eu economies, if they did not want to ruin the economies then they would have done the decent thing and withdrawn the euro long ago).

The aim is for prosperity not to bankrupt. Fiscal integration is the only way that the Eurozone can ultimately work for all. Currencey, taxation, state benefits, minimum wage etc. In order to create a level playing field. Simply having a currency the Euro. Didn't solve any of the underlying issues. Which is why the project is only partly baked as matters stand.

Moby

ukcarper wrote: »

You might want further integration but I very much doubt that is what the majority of people in UK want. I voted remain but I certainly would have voted leave if it meant going in Euro, what position do you think we would be in now if we did not have control of our own monetary policy.

Certainly better than our future prospects imo. Macron is in China building a relationship with the world future superpower, in tandem with Germany. Our role and influence will decline as a consequence of being unable to see beyond petty nationalism. The EU/single currency project was always going to be difficult....that doesn't make it the wrong thing to aspire to. Visionaries like Macron and Merkel will call the tune while we go cap in hand to Trump. They are looking to the future....we are harking back to the past and are now totally divided. The brexiteers won and will rub it in our faces while the rest of the world moves on:-
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-supporters-demand-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-arrest-11205566

Rough_Justice

Moby wrote: »

Certainly better than our future prospects imo. Macron is in China building a relationship with the world future superpower, in tandem with Germany. Our role and influence will decline as a consequence of being unable to see beyond petty nationalism. The EU/single currency project was always going to be difficult....that doesn't make it the wrong thing to aspire to. Visionaries like Macron and Merkel will call the tune while we go cap in hand to Trump:-
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-supporters-demand-london-mayor-sadiq-khan-arrest-11205566

:rotfl:
That post shows just how out of touch you are.

Yes, tell us just how that visit to China went Moby?

There were no eye-catching trade deals, and China appeared only mildly interested in French industrial might.

“Is there any embedded technology from (French engineering firm) Thales in there?” Macron asked his hosts as he peered over an intricate diagram.A blunt answer came back: No. This was 100 percent Chinese technology.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-france-macron/macron-in-china-notes-on-limits-of-influence-idUSKBN1F02EF
Where are the trade deals that Macron took his large entourage with him to negotiate?
:undecided

We're going "cap in hand" to Trump are we?
You don't (like some on here) believe that Trump's already denying the UK any crumbs then? Or that he flips and flops depending purely upon his mood at the time?
C'mon Moby, you can do better than that; UK future dealings with the good ol' US of A don't depend upon Trump so much as they depend upon those in the USA wanting to trade.

As for your "Visionaries like Macron and Merkel" well, where to start.
Okay, how have Frau Merkel's visions gone down in Germany over the past year? She's gone from being "Mutti" to being more-derided and less-loved than Theresa May!
Macron?
*Sigh*
Even with a resurgence in his popularity only half of French people are satisfied with how he's doing.
His latest "vision" is to have the baguette listed by Unesco as a cultural treasure!

Yup, that's visionary!
:rotfl:

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't see the contradiction.


I'm pretty sure we could have veto the move to QMV. I haven't read the treaties in detail though.

It's easy enough to find out. There are now very few areas where the veto can be used and QMV is definitely not one of them. What surprises me is the level of unawareness among remained about things like the self amending provisions of the Lisbon treaty which enables the commission to rollout QMV in areas that were not foreseen by its signatories. Mor
e powers are being taken by the commission and there is little that member countries can now do to prevent it.

buglawton

And with the British Govt/NHS/education being a huge single point customer of US software and pharmaceuticals there are lots of reasons for the US of A to be nice to us.

Arklight

buglawton wrote: »

And with the British Govt/NHS/education being a huge single point customer of US software and pharmaceuticals there are lots of reasons for the US of A to be nice to us.

America does what's best for (corporate) America. We had a huge say in EU policy and no say in US policy. Thanks to Brexit we now have no say in either.

If you think there is anything to celebrate about becoming the 51st State then go try being part of the struggling middle class in one of the 50 that exist.

A few years with no healthcare, $120,000 of student loan debts, 10 days holiday a year and next to no employment rights will wipe the smile off your face.

Moby

Rough_Justice wrote: »

:rotfl:
That post shows just how out of touch you are.

Yes, tell us just how that visit to China went Moby?


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-france-macron/macron-in-china-notes-on-limits-of-influence-idUSKBN1F02EF
Where are the trade deals that Macron took his large entourage with him to negotiate?
:undecided

We're going "cap in hand" to Trump are we?
You don't (like some on here) believe that Trump's already denying the UK any crumbs then? Or that he flips and flops depending purely upon his mood at the time?
C'mon Moby, you can do better than that; UK future dealings with the good ol' US of A don't depend upon Trump so much as they depend upon those in the USA wanting to trade.

As for your "Visionaries like Macron and Merkel" well, where to start.
Okay, how have Frau Merkel's visions gone down in Germany over the past year? She's gone from being "Mutti" to being more-derided and less-loved than Theresa May!
Macron?
*Sigh*
Even with a resurgence in his popularity only half of French people are satisfied with how he's doing.
His latest "vision" is to have the baguette listed by Unesco as a cultural treasure!

Yup, that's visionary!
:rotfl:

Despite all the predictions from the gloating brexiteers Mutti is still there, the surge of populist movements shows no sign of destroying the EU like you hope and from what I hear trade links between the EU and China are set to grow. I don't know about baguettes being a national treasure, such national stereotypes don't interest me. The big vision is the thing brexiteers don't understand and co-operation with your closest neighbours was always going to benefit this country more than going it alone in a very unpredictable world.