Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

Still in the "city" vein, are we seeing a change in attitudes from within the EU regarding Euro clearing too?
Well many have said it would cause the EU tremendous difficulties.

Exclusive - EU Parliament expected to soften euro clearing relocation powers

If confirmed by parliament, Hubner’s unexpected move is likely to be welcomed by the financial industry, which has warned that forced relocation could split markets, increase trading costs and diminish the status of the euro - besides threatening thousands of jobs in the City of London.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-clearing-exclusive/exclusive-eu-parliament-expected-to-soften-euro-clearing-relocation-powers-idUKKBN1F11RI

gfplux

I post this for information purposes only. It should interest both sides and highlights that Brexit is about people as well as Country’s.

I have permission to post this from the person who attended the meeting and made these notes.

There are many British people in the EU27 that are concerned for their future and have had a number of meetings hoping to clarify their position.
These NOTES are from a meeting held this week w/c 8th January 2018
—-
“British in Bavaria had a meeting in Munich this evening with Maria Noichl, an MEP. These are my notes on the meeting. I did not write everything down, so these are just a few points; they are in my own words and with my own thoughts added:
- CITIZENS' RIGHTS are first priority for the EU, but if a British government later disadvantages the EUinUK people, whereby “later” means after the UK has left the EU, the EU will reciprocate in kind with regard to UKinEU people, because they (the EU) refuse to be “blackmailed.”
- This would be unfortunate, because our own Government has sold us down the river and now it seems that under certain circumstances, the EU are also prepared to behave badly, just to show the UK how tough they are.
- Frau Noichl was asked if the EU could get tougher on member states who hold referendums but not in accordance with the DEMOCRATIC STANDARDS of the EU. She said this is v. difficult because every state has its own voting rules.
- According to Frau Noichl, Germans who live away from Germany for more than 25 years lose their right to vote in German elections. In Italy there is no time limit. In Poland, in national elections 35% counts as a majority!
- The Brexit negotiations are being carried out by members of the British Govt and members of the EU. The end of the negotiations will be in about 8 months, to allow time for the ratification period. At the end of the negotiations, both the EU-Parliament and the UK parliament will have a take-it-or-leave-it vote on the package deal. If EITHER the UK parliament OR the EU-Parliament doesn’t agree to the package deal, there will be a hard Brexit (“no deal”).
- THIS BIT'S INTERESTING: If, after Brexit, SCOTLAND has a 2nd referendum and votes to return to the EU, then Scotland will be allowed to return to the EU. ... ... ...!!!!!!!!!!!
- (Then there’ll be another land border! This is getting trickier and tricker!)
- Catalonia wouldn’t be allowed to return to the EU, because for some reason that I missed, Catalonia would have to ask Spain and Spain would definitely say no. In the case of Scotland, Scotland would not have to ask, and so there would be no-one to say no.
- I think this next bit was in answer to someone who said that they have lived most of their adult life in Europe and they would like some sort of “reward card” from the EU for their loyalty and that the EU’s stance isn’t good enough: Frau Noichl: The “tragedy of the story” for Brits in Europe, who are living the European project, is that it was precisely the UK that for the last 40-odd years has been opposing EU-citizenship, an EU-flag (the blue flag with stars is apparently not actually the EU flag…!) and the EU anthem (thought that was Ode to Joy…?) …
- (David Hole: On 13.12.2017, the EU passed the SECOND RESOLUTION; in section P, §11 it is acknowledged that “many citizens of the UK have expressed strong opposition to losing the rights they currently enjoy pursuant to Article 20 of the TFEU; proposes that the EU-27 should examine how to mitigate this within the limits of Union primary law while fully complying with the principles of reciprocity, equity, symmetry and non-discrimination; …”. So read it and bang on about it! It’s here: (THIS LINK DOESN'T WORK, SEE COMMENT BELOW POST) http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do…)
- ERASMUS and Erasmus Plus will still be possible after Brexit, but only if the UK pays for the use of it! The young generation will have to become vociferous about this if they want it to happen!
- NORTHERN IRELAND is 90% (?) dependent on the RoI (Republic of Ireland) for imports and exports. Goods will have to somehow be controlled, but it may be that people won’t notice any difference when passing the border.
- A lady asked if she will be LANDLOCKED in Germany. Frau Noichl said that while the EU stance is, “we don’t want to be blackmailed,” it could maybe be the stance for Brits in Bavaria that, “we don’t want to be the hostages of this situation!” She said that Freedom of Movement can’t be used as a pawn (Faustpfand) in exchange for trade (?)
- A NORWAY-STYLE solution for the UK would be acceptable to the EU at any time!
- If good progress is made, the EU will happily EXTEND the time limit of 29 March 2019.
- The EU is realising that two years is too short a time for countries possibly wishing to leave the EU, and that one referendum is probably not enough because it is only a snapshot in time. So a country should maybe have a referendum, then have 5 or even better 7 years to negotiate, and then have another referendum on the terms of the deal. So maybe Article 50 will be radically amended!
- Someone pointed out that the British government couldn’t care less about us. Another lady pointed out that Luxemburg and Hamburg have recently allowed all British citizens to have DUAL NATIONALITY (Hamburg can do this because it’s a town-state) and that Germany/Bavaria could maybe do that for all of us. Noichl's reply: it's up to the CSU (Bav. Govt.) and they are against dual nationality, but it's coming up for discussion soon.
- We were asked how many of us have no vote in UK or in Germany. About 25 people (that’s about half of those present) put up their hands. Frau Noichl was asked if she could bring this up at the EU, that we are DISENFRANCHISED and that this is just as important as freedom of movement.
- Frau Noichl was asked if she is REPRESENTING us at the EU, because half of us have no representative!
——-

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

To continue with city news:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-markets-sterling/sterling-surges-after-report-spain-netherlands-open-to-softer-brexit-idUKKBN1F11PQ

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-12/spanish-and-dutch-are-said-to-agree-to-seek-soft-brexit-deal

I nearly posted this but as the report was based what a 'person familiar' said and 'officials' in Spain & the Netherlands subsequently denied such an agreement I didn't bother.

Interesting though that baby steps towards a soft brexit are seen as positive for Sterling and vice versa. Wonder why.

crispy_duck

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm sure Cameron made a promise to remove 2 regulations for every new one introduced, and even opened a consulation on red tape to remove, but I can't find it.

I've not been around long enough to do proper links but do a google search for "regulation 2 out 1 in" and the first result is a gov.uk link to the policy.

StevieJ

Herzlos wrote: »

We're going to see all sorts of regulation and tax cuts once we've left; it's what the Tories do, and lots of things were restricted by EU membership.

Here is one that they got lucky with, just before the GFC hit in 2008. 'No need to continue regulate mortgage provision' just before sub-prime created mayhem, very lucky that they weren't in power and could blame it all on GB.

The Conservatives have drawn up a radical programme of cuts in red tape and regulation aimed at saving British businesses £14 billion a year, The Sunday Telegraph has learnt.

• A vast range of regulations on the financial services industry should either be abolished or watered down, including money-laundering restrictions affecting banks and building societies. Mr Redwood's group also sees "no need to continue" to regulate mortgage provision, saying it is the lender, not the client, who takes the risk.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1560100/Tories-plan-14bn-cuts-to-red-tape.html

Tromking

ilovehouses wrote: »

I nearly posted this but as the report was based what a 'person familiar' said and 'officials' in Spain & the Netherlands subsequently denied such an agreement I didn't bother.

Interesting though that baby steps towards a soft brexit are seen as positive for Sterling and vice versa. Wonder why.

Your reluctance to countenance that the famed EU unity on all things Brexit is maybe under pressure is noted.:)

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

- THIS BIT'S INTERESTING: If, after Brexit, SCOTLAND has a 2nd referendum and votes to return to the EU, then Scotland will be allowed to return to the EU. ... ... ...!!!!!!!!!!!

Fully discussed on another thread on this forum. For an MEP the individual concerned is badly informed. Which then brings into question anything else she reportedly said. As this isn't the case.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Interesting though that baby steps towards a soft brexit are seen as positive for Sterling and vice versa. Wonder why.

Status quo is maintained. Outside of the political aspirations there's a real world.

buglawton

The Brexit realignment has really pointed up why trade barriers exist. So there have been stiff barriers for a long time against Chinese cars, due to the perception that due to their low labour costs and cheap supply chain, they'd obliterate our EU/local car industries.

Even rampant globalists and free trade evangelists might concede that this kind of trade regulation is needed to maintain social stability in the West. Similar arguments hold for farming.

Funny then that when a radically cheaper source of migration-ready labour suddenly came on tap in the EU (the ex communist countries that joined), the UK govt was unable to do anything much. The EU mandarins deigned that there wasn't even a problem to solve.

Lack of overall EU joined-up thinking and the outcome is starting to become clear... Brexit or nationalist popularism depending on country.

Enterprise_1701C

gfplux wrote: »

- THIS BIT'S INTERESTING: If, after Brexit, SCOTLAND has a 2nd referendum and votes to return to the EU, then Scotland will be allowed to return to the EU. ... ... ...!!!!!!!!!!!
——-

I would like to know how this could work, because Scotland is not a member of the eu, the UK is. Therefore Scotland could not "return". They could apply to join, once they have met the qualification criteria, but they simply could not just walk in.

I still struggle to see why they are so desperate to be "independent" and yet wish to be in a protectionist regime with which they do so little trade.