Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

I don't know what the result of the negotiation will be, but I know what the result of dealing on WTO terms is and I know what the result of an EEA EFTA agreement is.

Leavers hate the idea of EEA EFTA because it's the same immigration and paying money to the EU that they hate, so they have wild fantasies about how good WTO terms are or some strange idea that we can somehow bully the EU into doing a better deal than being in the EU. This is beyond unlikely.

Our biggest export is financial services and that can easily be torn out of London, so we have no real leverage there. Manufacturing is harder to move, but once WTO hits they'll see any investment in the UK as a sunk cost and start moving to where they need the products made more.

We don’t know what the effect of WTO terms will be obviously it will be better if we can get a good deal, although the EU exports to us are not as important to them as are to us it is a significant amount and I’m sure they do not want to put it in jeopardy. I agree the biggest problem is financial services but I don’t know enough to know how bad the impact will be and if there are effective systems that can be put into place to reduce impact.

As I understand the reasons most people voted for leave were control of imigration and of our own laws si I’m not surprised they do not want to accept 3 freedoms.

System

westernpromise wrote: »

I still think the Remainer faction has missed the main motivator for Leave votes, or at least for a significant portion of them. Leavers don't like the direction the EU is headed and hence want to leave.

It's only on forums like this where the majority pretend to be concerned about the direction of the EU.

I've never bought it and think the main motivator was a protest about the number of immigrants whether they be from the EU or otherwise. Don't think I'm 'disremembering' - it was only 18 months ago.

Concern about the direction of the EU, sovereignty, democracy and the poor of Africa I'm sure were a concern for a small minority but a handy mask for many more.

westernpromise

I think that's the perception, but they've been fed scare stories for decades, so their perception of where the EU is going and where the EU is actually going are 2 different things.

I'm not sure that's so. What tends to happen with the EU is something gets floated, then we're told it's just an idea and it'll never happen, then we're told the debate is over and it's all a done deal, and then it happens. If people are apprehensive about where the EU might head, it has to accept its share of the blame for that.

There's also a problem I think with how its democracy works (or doesn't). The fact that referendums that don't support its goals are always repeated until they do has not sent a good signal. Nor does the fact that the European Parliament is a parliament only in name. It has, for example, no opposition faction. There is no faction that supports political integration and another for whom you can vote that opposes it. All factions support it and want to go about it differently, much as in the USSR they had a parliament and elections but all the candidates were communists.

There's an argument that UKIP opposed integration but UKIP just wanted to leave and arguably had no view or care as to what the others might want to do. It was akin to the SNP at Westminster in that regard.

None of the above persuaded me to vote Leave, but neither was the matter so obviously binary that it made sense to vote Remain. For me the question I had of Remain was "OK, Remain in what, exactly?", which was never seriously raised.

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

The fact that referendums that don't support its goals are always repeated until they do has not sent a good signal.

That's not actually true; the EU has never insisted on a carbon copy re-run until it gets the correct result. If it proposes something, referendum rejects it, it changes the offer until it's accepted. Thats more or less what democracy is.

Nor does the fact that the European Parliament is a parliament only in name.

I don't follow this.

It has, for example, no opposition faction. There is no faction that supports political integration and another for whom you can vote that opposes it.

I guess not, but it's made up of a lot of factions with different views. It's essentially a party-less parliament which IMHO works better because there's no whips.

For me the question I had of Remain was "OK, Remain in what, exactly?", which was never seriously raised.

Because it's essentially undefinable. We'd have been remaining as-is, and retaining the full power to change it the way we wanted.

GreatApe

What happens to EU imports once we are outside the EU?
Let's say we get a trade deal very similar to now.
Can the UK then agree a free trade deal with say America and or China?

If so doesn't that mean cars that used to be charged 10% to be imported from America no longer have that charge? And thus the Germans will lose some UK market share once the UK leaves the EU and agrees other Free Trade deals?

Surely our EU imports will fall if we have other free trade deals?
The EU won't be happy about that.
What if anything will they do?

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

Thing is, the UK could be on the cusp of strengthening old and forging new ties with Asian manufacturing companies.

Preferably it'll be cheaper to manufacture in the UK.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Because it's essentially undefinable. We'd have been remaining as-is, and retaining the full power to change it the way we wanted.

And you accuse others of being delusional. The EU wouldn't give Cameron a crumb from the table.

kingstreet

AIUI BMW has plants in the US, Mexico, Egypt, South Africa, India and so on.

Presumably, if there's a better trade deal with one of those countries than the EU, it could simply import vehicles to the UK from there?

Eric_the_half_a_bee

ilovehouses wrote: »

I've never bought it and think the main motivator was a protest about the number of immigrants whether they be from the EU or otherwise. Don't think I'm 'disremembering' - it was only 18 months ago.

Concern about the direction of the EU, sovereignty, democracy and the poor of Africa I'm sure were a concern for a small minority but a handy mask for many more.

The great thing about your position is that no amount of evidence showing you that that Leave voters were not solely motivated by immigration can undermine your prejudice. You will just say, yes they said sovereignty (etc) but what they really meant was immigration.

And they call Leavers bigoted.

NineDeuce

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