Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

phillw

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

By this logic the EU will do a good trade deal with the UK which, as with all the EU's other trade deals, respects the sovereignty and borders of third countries. So there's nothing to worry about.

A good deal is just anything better than WTO terms, because WTO terms are disastrous for us. So there is everything to worry about.

cogito wrote: »

Chile has got more FTAs than the EU. Is Chile bigger than the EU and do they have more economic clout than the UK.

I don't think leavers made an informed decision to turn the UK into Chile. Thinking you can cherry pick the bits you like and leaving the bits you don't is delusional.

Eric_the_half_a_bee wrote: »

My point is, the EU's ability to reach comprehensive trade deals is constrained by its need to adhere to "the EU's standards". This includes the requirement to make trade between an EU member state and a third country considerably more difficult than trade between two EU member states. So, the EU sets itself a ceiling on the open-ness of deals with third countries.

A post-Brexit UK will not be subject to any such ceiling. An important difference that your analysis ignores.

Lowering your standards is abusive. The idea of us trying to get a better trade deal by saying it's ok to use child labour, or have lower working standards is abhorrent. If the product quality doesn't meet our existing EU safety standards then it's abusing our own people. The leaver argument seems to be that It's alright though as long as it's other people and not the individual that is being abused.

The EU won't let us be a way to launder products that they wouldn't import into their market, as we'd then be abusing them.

Also the world is changing and are less willing to be abused. China have just stopped us from using their country as land fill for OUR plastic.

I'm still waiting for a non abusive argument from a leaver.

ukcarper wrote: »

What I find disturbing about these threads is the confidence that some poster have that they know exactly what is going to happen when the truth is nobody knows what the effects will be. This is true of both sides.

I don't know what the result of the negotiation will be, but I know what the result of dealing on WTO terms is and I know what the result of an EEA EFTA agreement is.

Leavers hate the idea of EEA EFTA because it's the same immigration and paying money to the EU that they hate, so they have wild fantasies about how good WTO terms are or some strange idea that we can somehow bully the EU into doing a better deal than being in the EU. This is beyond unlikely.

Our biggest export is financial services and that can easily be torn out of London, so we have no real leverage there. Manufacturing is harder to move, but once WTO hits they'll see any investment in the UK as a sunk cost and start moving to where they need the products made more.

cogito

phillw wrote: »

Because it hasn't been worth it. kabayiri's argument is that it's actually not worth it for us either, only in the future.

The leaver argument assumes that stupid foreigners are stupid and the EU won't do a deal with the rest of the world even when it is worth it to them.

Not that any leaver has enough insight to understand their own argument, because it's so ingrained and they think of themselves as nice people. To balance out the cognitive dissonance you have to think that it's the foreigners and not yourself at fault.

It's likely we'll screw up any future trade deals with the rest of the world anyway, because all of the deals so far on the table have involved us accepting immigrants and workers from those countries.

Dear God. This reasoned argument of yours can be summed up as follows:

1. I'm a remainer, therefore, I'm cleverer than you and a nice person.
2. The EU can do a deal with anyone it wants (even if the other side don't want)
3. I know that we'll screw up any trade deals because I have the power to see the future.

I have more sensible discussions with my four year old granddaughter.

Tromking

Yep.
Just when Jaguar Land Rover are actually building cars that more and more people are aspiring to own, the EU being unduly non recognisant of the fact that the UK snaps up around 20% of its Germany’s car output, will potentially be damaging to the German car industry and shift a lot of their custom.

westernpromise

I still think the Remainer faction has missed the main motivator for Leave votes, or at least for a significant portion of them. Leavers don't like the direction the EU is headed and hence want to leave.

By analogy, there's never a good time to jump off a runaway train. Jump off it and you're instantly worse off, there's no argument about that. You stay on the train intact or you hit the ground at 50mph or whatever - the latter is clearly going to be very unpleasant for the moment.

But it's less unpleasant now than later when the train's picked up speed, and it's worst of all when the train ploughs into something hard or goes off the cliff at 100mph.

The argument that we'll be instantly worse off seems to me to be probably true but from a Leaver's perspective also beside the point. To a Leaver, leaving now is less painful than Remaining will eventually be.

cogito

phillw wrote: »

I don't think leavers made an informed decision to turn the UK into Chile. Thinking you can cherry pick the bits you like and leaving the bits you don't is delusional.

Please don't twist my words. Why do you imagine that I think that the UK can cherry pick? I don't. It's up to the EU whether they agree a deal satisfactory to both sides. If they don't, both sides will have to make the best of it.

Herzlos

We've known about this for over a year now. German car industry seems quite content to let UK trade suffer a bit to maintain the EU market. I've seen no signs that they'll suddenly come to our rescue.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

1. I'm a remainer, therefore, I'm cleverer than you and a nice person.
2. The EU can do a deal with anyone it wants (even if the other side don't want)
3. I know that we'll screw up any trade deals because I have the power to see the future.

Not at all. You could say:

1. You're doing a stupid thing and I can see it's a stupid thing, so I'll call it a stupid thing.
2. The EU can do a deal with anyone it wants (and has the leverage to force concessions we can't).
3. We'll screw up any trade deals because you've seen our negotiation (concession) team at work.

Given that we don't have enough negotiators, and our current lot can't negotiate their way out of a paper bag, how are you expecting greatness? We hire some from the EU to do it for us?

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

I still think the Remainer faction has missed the main motivator for Leave votes, or at least for a significant portion of them. Leavers don't like the direction the EU is headed and hence want to leave.

I think that's the perception, but they've been fed scare stories for decades, so their perception of where the EU is going and where the EU is actually going are 2 different things.
They've been subjected to years of austerity and bad government, with the problems being blamed on the EU and foreigners, so they believe leaving the EU will help. It won't, because none of the problems are actually caused by the EU.

So I can see exactly why people voted, I just don't believe leaving the EU will make life any better for most of them. In fact I reckon it's more likely to make their lives worse.

System

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

It's old news.

There's a misunderstanding about why trade bodies and individual businesses commission these studies. The German car manufacturers didn't receive this and start planning to sell x thousands fewer cars. They will have looked at the input scenarios and started formulating a plan to change them.

Yes they'll be lobbying to try and get the best result for the German car industry but they'll be running costings to assess the feasibility of absorbing some of the tariff maybe in the short term - they could use their promotional budget to have a 'tariff-free' sale event.

System

Tromking wrote: »

Yep.
Just when Jaguar Land Rover are actually building cars that more and more people are aspiring to own, the EU being unduly non recognisant of the fact that the UK snaps up around 20% of its Germany’s car output, will potentially be damaging to the German car industry and shift a lot of their custom.

Nope.

The study suggests rather than German manufactured cars being replaced by UK made cars there would just be a massive slump in new car sales.

Still worse for them than us so that's a bonus.